With the holidays behind us, the hot stove is burning bright again. Where can you turn for guidance amid this dizzying whirlwind?
Right here is where. Chris Towers and I will be making the Offseason Tracker our home base for the next few weeks, churning out content as the news warrants. Here, you’ll get a breakdown of all the moves that matter for Fantasy Baseball without all the fluff. (OK, maybe a little fluff.)
Bookmark it. Read it. Live by it.
Ryan Weathers traded to Yankees
The Yankees added another talented young arm to a rotation that is, at this point, surprisingly stocked with talented young arms and little in the way of sure things. Weathers probably isn’t as talented as Cam Schlittler, but he might be ahead of Will Warren and Luis Gil … if he can just stay healthy. Weathers has a 3.74 ERA over the past two seasons, but has thrown just 125 innings, and the injuries in 2025 were especially worrisome – he added a few ticks of fastball velocity and almost immediately hurt his elbow and then his lat just a few weeks after returning, limiting him to 38.1 innings across eight starts.
Weathers also didn’t really see the boost in production we hoped for with his added velocity, with his strikeout rate sitting at a still-pretty-mediocre 22.3% rate. It’s not hard to see a path to more upside than that, but it’s totally theoretical at this point, and now he’s joining a Yankees rotation that could find itself with an overabundance of starters when Carlos Rodon and Gerrit Cole are back from their respective elbow surgeries early in the season. Health is no guarantee, of course, especially for veterans coming back from surgery, but also for, well, Weathers. Which is all to say that, while he’s a pretty interesting pitcher, there isn’t enough certainty in either role or skill to justify spending much more than a late-round flier on Weathers, even with a better supporting cast in New York.
The other wrinkle here is what it means for Miami’s rotation. They’ve traded Weathers and Edward Cabrera in quick succession, which would seemingly guarantee an Opening Day rotation spot for prospect Robby Snelling. Snelling is a 22-year-old lefty who averaged 94.7 mph with his four-seamer and put up a 1.27 ERA in 11 starts at Triple-A last season, so yeah, he’s deserving of a spot. His profile is more about good command than overwhelming stuff, but the stuff ticked up last season, and if it holds, the Marlins might not even miss Cabrera or Weathers.
And that could be especially true when Thomas White, the Marlins other, even more talented, lefty prospect gets the call. That might be as soon as Opening Day if he really shines this spring, though I’d guess we’ll see Janson Junk get the first opportunity. Junk is fine, but White is one of the five best pitching prospects in baseball coming off a season where he reached Triple-A and put up a 2.31 ERA with a ridiculous 39% strikeout rate in 89.2 innings of work across three levels. We’ll see White at some point in the first half, I’d bet, but unless he absolutely dominates this spring, he probably doesn’t need to be on your Draft Day radars.–Chris Towers
Nolan Arenado traded to Diamondbacks
The Cardinals finally found a taker for Arenado, who famously exercised his no-trade clause last offseason to veto a move to the Astros. Arenado’s decline continued in 2025, and I’m not sure Arizona is the kind of landing spot that seems likely to slow that down – Arenado’s pull-heavy swing would benefit best from a park with a short fence down the left field line, and while Chase Field’s left field dimensions are a bit friendlier than St. Louis’, it’s only by less than 10 feet. Arenado’s quality of contact metrics in 2025 were legitimate terrible – he was in the 17th percentile in expected ISO among all hitters, something even that pull-heavy swing can’t help him overcome anymore. It’s probably a lineup upgrade and a park upgrade, I’m just not sure that’s enough to matter at this point in Arenado’s career.
There is notable fallout otherwise on both sides of this move. For the Cardinals, it’s a first step to clear up a playing time log jam, though they probably still need to move one more player (likely Brendan Donovan, judging by the rumor mill) before they are finished. That would open up a spot for top prospect JJ Wetherholt, who I expect to be in the Opening Day lineup one way or another. We just need that next deal to go through.
On the Diamondbacks side, this raises real questions about where top prospect Jordan Lawlar is going to play. With Arenado in and Ketel Marte staying put, the infield is full in Arizona, which means either another trip back to Triple-A or, more likely, a move to the outfield for Lawlar. He played a few games there in the Dominican Winter League and will likely spend the spring working out in the outfield, where there is plenty of playing time to be grabbed. Lawlar has remained very productive in Triple-A and is a viable deep sleeper for Fantasy, but the move to a position he has barely played gives him an even more limited margin for error as he tries to establish himself in the majors. And, given that the Diamondbacks haven’t exactly cleared a path to playing time for him despite making his MLB debut back in 2023, it’s fair at this point to wonder if they’ve just lost faith in Lawlar despite his strong production in the minors. –Chris Towers
Alex Bregman signs with Cubs
Thus far in his career, Bregman has had the good fortune of playing in two of the most opportune venues for pull-side right-handed power: Daikin Park and Fenway Park. Now, he’ll get a taste of the opposite. The impact that Wrigley Field could have on his home run output is difficult to ascertain through metrics like xHR, which struggles to account for the venue’s ever-windy conditions and unusual outline, but Isaac Paredes serves as a useful test case. If Paredes produces much like Bregman in Houston, what are the chances Bregman will produce much like Paredes in Chicago? I break it down here. –Scott White
Edward Cabrera traded to Cubs
The rotation impact here is clear: With Justin Steele recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Cubs pretty desperately needed another arm for the middle part of their rotation, and Cabrera was one of the most exciting on the market. Armed with fastballs that flirt with triple digits and a changeup with the velocity of the average pitcher’s fastball, Cabrera has always had en enticing arm, but in 2025, he made real changes to start to live up to the hype. For more on those and what the Marlins got back in this deal, check out my full-length article. –Chris Towers
Kazuma Okamoto signs with Blue Jays
Okamoto ended up signing for four years, $60 million with the Blue Jays, and all of that sounds right. It’s in line with expectations for Okamoto’s contract coming into the offseason – whereas Munetaka Murakami and Tatsuya Imai’s prices ended up well short of expectations – and Okamoto’s skill set fits in perfectly with a conscious decision the Blue Jays have made in recent years to target hitters who can make a lot of contact without sacrificing power. Okamoto has been one of the best hitters in Japan in recent years and is coming off a massive season where he was arguably the best hitter, putting up a 210 wRC with 15 homers in 69 games. He will likely see his strikeout rate, which ranged around 14-17% in Japan, rise closer to league average in the majors, and he doesn’t have much better than above-average raw power, but Okamoto does a good job of driving the ball to the pull side in the air, helping him get the most out of his physical tools. I think Okamoto is unlikely to be a superstar in the majors, but he’s joining a good lineup and certainly has top-10 upside at third base in a late-career Nolan Arenado (before he completely collapsed) kind of way. He’s worth drafting around 200th overall or so in most drafts as a corner infielder with some upside. —Chris Towers
Tatsuya Imai signs with Astros
Of the several players expected to sign out of East Asia this offseason, Imai was thought to be the best. He’s in the prime of his career at age 27, was the hardest-throwing starting pitcher in Japan this past season (according to Baseball America) and, well, you can see the numbers for yourself. But numbers can be misleading, particularly for pitchers during what’s been a dead ball era for the Japanese league. What does it say that Imai’s ultimate deal — three years for a maximum of $63 million — is such a far cry from the six-year, $150 million offer that multiple outlets were projecting?
Could be that Imai is betting on a bigger score once he proves himself. His deal includes opt-outs after both the first and second year. Could be, however, that his oddball profile makes for a difficult evaluation. Yes, he throws hard, with his fastball sitting at about 96 mph and peaking at 99, but what’s more notable is his release height. It would rank among the lowest in the game, owing both to his near sidearm delivery and smallish 5-foot-11 build. Meanwhile, his slider, which is supposed to be his best pitch, breaks to his arm side, moving in the opposite direction of most every other slider, which Lance Brozdowski has pointed out would make it less appealing to stuff models.
But would it make it more effective in actuality? I’m of the opinion that weird is good for pitchers. The goal is to misdirect hitters, after all, and familiarity works against that goal. If Imai’s success depended on deception alone, I’d have greater doubts, but he has quality stuff and at least pretty good command. The contract is a little underwhelming, but I’m still likely to rank him among my top 45 starting pitchers for 2026. –Scott White
Pete Fairbanks signs with Marlins
A day after announcing they’d be without Ronny Henriquez for the 2026 season, the Marlins agreed to a one-year, $13 million deal with Fairbanks. It’s a modest contract for a pitcher with ample closing experience, which speaks to concerns about the 32-year-old’s declining performance the past two years. He’s continued to handle the ninth inning capably, but he’s gone from striking out about 12 batters per nine innings to less than nine per nine, with a corresponding drop in velocity. The Rays, who of course know him best, actually turned down an $11 million option for him. Still, he’ll enter 2026 as the favorite to close for the Marlins, who were never settled in that role last year. Maybe that’s manager Clayton McCullough’s philosophy, which is all the more reason to be cautious about drafting Fairbanks next year, but even so, he’s worth targeting as a low-end RP2. –Scott White
Willson Contreras traded to Red Sox
Well, this one’s kind of surprising. The Red Sox probably couldn’t go into this season relying on Triston Casas again, and now it’s not clear if Casas will even be on the Red Sox in 2026. Contreras transitioned to first base in 2025 and continued to be a solid middle-of-the-order bat, hitting 20 homers with a .257/.344/.447 line. Given the money due over the final two seasons of his contract (which includes an option for 2028), the Red Sox aren’t likely to consider Contreras a platoon bat with Casas, so I would expect a trade for Casas, who will have some very late-round appeal in Fantasy if he finds an everyday job. As for Contreras, his value takes a big hit as he is only 1B eligible for 2026, but he’s a solid enough corner infield option in Fantasy, especially with a nice little park upgrade on the way.
As for the Cardinals side of this, I wonder if this might be a way to unlock everyday at bats for Ivan Herrera, who has hit like a first baseman over the past couple of seasons while playing catcher … like a first baseman. He is recovering from elbow surgery and is expected to play catcher in 2026 after mostly being limited to DH duties last season, but maybe they could give him a few opportunities behind the plate per week while primarily holding down first base and DH. Herrera won’t open 2026 with catcher eligibility, but he has significant upside if he gets there and plays regularly coming off a .284/.373/.464 line (with even better underlying numbers).
The Cardinals also added to their rotation options with Hunter Dobbins coming back their way, along with as-yet-unnamed pitching prospects. Dobbins had a 4.13 ERA and 3.99 xERA last season with the Red Sox, and there might be room to unlock some swing-and-miss upside with some tweaks to his arsenal. But he’s probably just an end-of-rotation option for the Cardinals and someone Fantasy players can view as strictly a streamer for 2026. —Chris Towers
Munetaka Murakami signs with the White Sox
It’s a surprisingly small contract for one of the biggest names on the market. I wrote about that and more here:
“MLB teams aren’t infallible, and when it comes to a player making the transition from NPB to the majors, there’s an inherent uncertainty that makes it harder to say with confidence whether this will end up being a good deal or not. But there are no shortage of teams with the need for a potential 30-plus power hitter in the middle of the lineup, and the fact that Murakami ended up with a similar contract to the ones Jurickson Profar and Tyler O’Neill signed last season (while being significantly older and with pretty mediocre MLB track records) stands out as a pretty big red flag, one Fantasy player shouldn’t just ignore.
I’m not going to totally bury him in my rankings but given that the White Sox (and the other 29 teams, frankly) know a whole lot more about Murakami than we do, I am very much inclined to view him with a skeptical eye. We’ll get to the scouting report for Murakami shortly, but the long and short of it is there are significant contact questions with his swing that make his likelihood of living up to the loftiest expectations pretty unlikely. I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as a prospect if he signed for big money, but with the details in now, it seems like MLB teams just don’t have a lot of faith in his swing. If MLB teams are telling us they don’t have much more faith in him than they do in Polanco, we should probably listen.” –Chris Towers
Shane Baz traded to the Orioles
I wrote about Baz’s move to Baltimore here:
“The Orioles are betting they can do something similar here with Baz entering his age-27 season. And there are obviously tools to work with here once you look past the ugly 4.78 ERA Baz put up in 2025. His xERA was 3.85, which suggests there was plenty of poor luck in Baz’s results. He has some strikeout upside and limits damage on contact well enough (.359 xwOBA on contact in 2025, .355 for his career; .368 is league average), but has mostly struggled with consistency.
And I think the Rays approach may have something to do with that. Many pitchers have talked about how the Rays philosophy can often be boiled down to, “Throw your best pitches as often as possible, aim for the middle of the zone‘, and let your stuff do the rest.” That is advice that has worked out well for many pitchers (most notably Tyler Glasnow), but I think it’s been holding Baz back. He has good stuff, but doesn’t necessarily miss as many bats in the strike zone as you would expect, posting a roughly average in-zone contact rate allowed. That’s a problem when Baz throws 53% of his pitches in the zone, compared to the league average of roughly 48%. Those pitches in the zone will help you avoid walks, of course, but it’s hard to consistently miss bats that way, and consistently missing bats has been a big issue for Baz.” — Chris Towers
Brandon Lowe traded to the Rays
I wrote about Lowe’s fit in Pittsburgh here:
“It is a park downgrade for Lowe, though that may not matter as much as you think – he hit just .240/.279/.456 at George M. Steinbrenner Field last season, while Tropicana Field (where Lowe played every season prior to last) is actually a worse park for left-handed hitters than PNC Park. PNC is a tougher park for righties and should play pretty fair for Lowe, so your expectations for him shouldn’t change too much based on this deal.
Which means Lowe should remain one of the best values at the second base position for Fantasy yet again. Despite coming off a bounce-back season, Lowe’s ADP in early NFBC drafts is just 174.1. He’s being held back by concerns about his health, which is fair, but he just proved last season he can give us something close to a full season, and there just aren’t many players who can give you as big an edge on the competition as Lowe does with homers relative to other second basemen.” — Chris Towers
Michael King signs with Padres
The theme of staying put this offseason continues for another notable free agent, and the terms are pretty interesting. In all, the deal could be worth $75 million over three years, but King could choose to opt out after the first or second year, earning the least amount of money upfront. That’s the sort of deal a player signs when he thinks he won’t get he’s worth and needs to resuscitate his value, and to be fair, he did miss much of 2025 with nerve impingement in his shoulder. But he did have his usual velocity when he returned in September, and every contender could use a pitcher like him.
It’s reason to wonder if there are lingering doubts about King’s ineffectiveness in September. He didn’t look as sharp even though the velocity checked out. In all, his move back into the starting rotation in 2024 has been a smashing success, and he has top-25 upside at starting pitcher. Given that the position is so deep, though, and he clearly has something to prove still, he’ll come closer to being the 50th starting pitcher selected. –Scott White
Ha-seong Kim signs with Braves
Kim turned down his $16 million option with the Braves earlier this offseason but returns for an addition $4 million on a one-year. It’s a good fit in that the Braves badly need a shortstop with some offensive ability and Kim badly needs to restore his value after a season wrecked by injuries. He should play every day just as he did in September when the Braves claimed him off waivers from the Rays.
Whether he’ll perform is another matter. His 2025 was split evenly with 24 games for the Rays and 24 for the Braves, and he did perform better once he was back to playing regularly with the latter. But he also had zero steals with the latter and isn’t of much Fantasy interest without those, particularly since he’s likely to bat low in the lineup. A 12-homer, 25-steal season is what you could reasonably hope for, with 15 and 30 being his absolute upside, but he’s far enough removed from those kind of numbers that you should approach him with skepticism. He’s a late-round pick in leagues that require a third middle infielder (such as standard Rotisserie). –Scott White
Adolis Garcia signs with Phillies
Garcia, 32, has struggled with issues in both knees and hasn’t been an impact hitter since 2023. The Phillies are betting they can unlock something and at least squeeze a mild upgrade from what Nick Castellanos has given them the past few seasons. That’s not a bad bet on a one-year, $10 million contract. It’s an upgrade in supporting cast and home park, and that could provide a little boost to Garcia’s value. But I’m not expecting a George Springer-esque resurgence after two years of an OPS below .700 and declining underlying metrics. Maybe you could get 20 homers and 10 steals out of him as a late-round flier. –Chris Towers
Josh Bell signs with Twins
Bell’s career has been defined by inconsistency, so a bounce-back in 2025 isn’t out of the question. That’s especially true given his underlying metrics in 2025, which were the best we’ve seen from him since 2021, with a .358 xwOBA to go along with his best strikeout rate in three years. It didn’t show up in the box score until the second half of the season, when Bell hit .267/.353/.489. It’s not unreasonable to think there’s a similar ceiling in here for 2026, though you certainly shouldn’t draft Bell expecting that. As a late-round flier for power, you can do worse, however. –Chris Towers
Merrill Kelly signs with Diamondbacks
Petty straightforward, this one. Apart from his two months with the Rangers at the end of 2025, our only recollection of Kelly is with the Diamondbacks, so we know exactly what to expect. The only question would be if he’s beginning to age out at 37, seeing as he was more hittable during his 10 starts with the Rangers. No organization would have a better read on him than the Diamondbacks, though, and they’re willing to pay him $20 million each of the next two years. His velocity and ERA estimators have held steady, so I think you can draft him with confidence as an innings-eating rotation stabilizer in the fifth or sixth starter range. You’ll probably end up using him more than you expect to. –Scott White
Isaac Collins traded to Royals
For a minute there, Collins was the hot thing in Fantasy, slashing .338/.425/.544 over a two-month stretch from June 12 through Aug. 11. And while he slashed only .182/.303/.293 thereafter, slipping into more of a part-time role, he still ended up reaching base at a .368 clip as a rookie. That’s likely what attracted the Royals to Collins, and with them, the switch-hitter is more likely to play every day.
My fear, though, is that the midseason hot stretch inflated his stat line beyond what’s actually reasonable and that the season simply ended before the correction could be fully applied. He wasn’t a highly regarded prospect, doesn’t hit the ball with much authority, and doesn’t make contact at an unusually high rate. He’s good at taking walks, as his minor league history also shows, but major league pitchers will put a stop to that if the bat isn’t impactful enough. They’re better at controlling where the ball goes and will simply pound the strike zone. Maybe Collins will excel with the Royals and give them their own version of Sal Frelick. It’s more possible with them than with the Brewers. But that’s modest upside for a player with such a questionable profile, making him not worth considering outside of five-outfielder leagues. –Scott White
Dustin May signs with Cardinals
Not a bad gamble for the Cardinals when you consider that May was a prized commodity as recently as a year ago. He was coming back from flexor tendon surgery as well as a Tommy John revision, and obviously, things didn’t turn out so well. The Dodgers decided to cut bait, shipping him to the Red Sox for a couple of minor leaguers, but it didn’t improve his circumstances at all. If nothing else, the Cardinals can provide him with opportunity given the sorry state of their starting rotation. He’s lost about 2 mph from all three versions of his fastball (four-seamer, two-seamer and cutter), but he still gets wicked horizontal movement on several of his pitches. He’s too much of a project to draft in standard-size leagues, but if he starts getting some buzz this spring, that could change. –Scott White
It wasn’t even a week ago that I said Kyle Finnegan would be the favorite for saves in Detroit after signing a two-year, $19 million deal. I take it all back. Jansen, the active saves leader and fourth on the all-time list with 476, becomes the most proven closer manager A.J. Hinch has ever had.
Hinch is notoriously noncommittal with his ninth-inning choices, which is why the Finnegan endorsement was a guarded one, but the last time he had a closer widely considered to be one of the best in the game, Roberto Osuna in 2019, he got him 38 saves. Jansen presumably wouldn’t go to a team that didn’t promise him the closer role. The last time he got fewer than 25 saves in a season (2020 excluded) was 2011. It’s true he’s not as dominant as he once was, but he continues to get the job done at 38 and has a good chance for 30-plus saves on an expected contender. You should target him among the top 15 relievers in leagues that reward saves. –Scott White
Out with Pete Alonso. In with … Jorge Polanco? Yes, the Mets are going the thrifty route to replace their All-Star first baseman, signing a longtime second baseman with the intention of transitioning him there. I say it’s the thrifty route, but really it’s more like the short-term route, seeing as Polanco is slated to make $40 million over two years.
He earned that pay increase with a resurgent season in Seattle, his best in four years. He had patellar tendon surgery prior to the season, a condition he had been managing for years, and the underlying data backs up the resurgence, namely through improved exit velocities a greatly improved strikeout rate. In theory, he’s going to a better venue, but his xHR by ballpark is about the same in New York and Seattle over the past few years. Mostly, Polanco’s value is tied to his second base eligibility, given that it’s the weakest infield position, and this move puts him in the conversation for top 10 there. –Scott White
Ken Rosenthal already answered your question: The Braves still expect to use Raisel Iglesias as their closer in 2026. The deal will pay Suarez $13 million in 2026, with $16 million due in each of 2027 and 2028; with Iglesias only under contract for one more year after re-signing earlier this offseason, the plan here seems pretty clear. For 2026, Suarez is an overqualified setup man; in 2027, he should enter as the odds-on favorite to close. Of course, he might end up closing in 2026 anyway, as Iglesias lost the feel for his slider in 2025 and subsequently lost his job (before eventually winning it back). Winning it back from Suarez, who has a 2.87 ERA and 76 saves over the past two seasons, might be a tougher task. Iglesias remains in the top-12 closer discussion for 2026 drafts, but he’s got to be viewed as a riskier pick now than he was before the Suarez signing. –Chris Towers
Pete Alonso signs with Orioles
After he sat on the free agent market until February last offseason, Pete Alonso found his home much earlier this time around. And, for the first time in his professional career, he won’t be with the Mets, as he landed with the Orioles Wednesday on a five-year deal that will make him one of the highest-paid first basemen in MLB history. It’s a move that answers some questions for the Orioles lineup in 2026 and raises plenty more for the Mets. For more, check out out my full-length article. –Chris Towers
Here’s yet another free agent who tested the free agent market and decided the grass wasn’t greener, in this case re-upping with the Tigers on a two-year, $19 million deal. Finnegan may not be of the same stature as Kyle Schwarber, who also chose to stay put Tuesday, but he could be of use in Fantasy if he ends up claiming the closer role for the Tigers. (Update: He likely won’t with the subsequent signing of Kenley Jansen.)
He more or less split the role with Will Vest after coming over from the Nationals in a deadline deal, but he has more experience in it and became a much better pitcher with the Tigers, putting together a 1.50 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and 11.5 K/9 in 16 appearances. Basically, they had him throw his splitter twice as often, and clearly, they think those gains will stick. –Scott White
Kyle Schwarber returning to the Phillies is a big deal for real-life baseball. Schwarber is one of the 15 or so best hitters in baseball (and the number of better power hitters is an even shorter list), but he’s also been an integral part of the Phillies’ clubhouse during their recent run of contending, and they were fighting off a number of other contenders and would-be contenders for Schwarber’s services. That’s a list that included unexpected names like the Reds and Pirates, as well as the Orioles, Mets, and others who were all in on Schwarber to the tune of at least $100 million. His landing spot could have fundamentally reshaped the look of any one of about a half-dozen teams.
For Fantasy, though, this deal doesn’t really matter all that much. We’ll always take the status quo reigning when that involves an elite hitter staying in a good lineup, and it’s probably the best chance Schwarber has to recreate his incredible 2025 season. But it also doesn’t – or shouldn’t – change how anyone views him for Fantasy. It’s the status quo, after all.
I will say this: I think Schwarber’s price in drafts is probably at least a little bit unreasonable. After sporting an ADP near 70th entering 2025, he’s sitting at 24.5 in early NFBC drafts so far. He was worth that in 2025, but he also hit 18 more homers than he had in 2024 and nine more than any other season in his career, so expecting a repeat is probably asking a lot. He’ll hit 40 or so with elite run production numbers, but he hasn’t hit better than .248 since 2021 (when he was shielded from many of the toughest lefties on the schedule in a way he no longer is) and he is a Util/DH-only player for Fantasy. None of that should be considered a deal breaker, but it can create some tough team-building complications when it costs a second-round pick. –Chris Towers
Edwin Diaz signs with Dodgers
Edwin Diaz joining the Dodgers is another move that feels more momentous in real life than in Fantasy. The Dodgers’ bullpen was their biggest weakness in 2025 and now they’ve signed the best closer on the market. Of course they did. But Diaz was going to be a closer no matter where he signed, and if anything, signing with a team that gave out a huge contract to another close last offseason and has other pitchers with closing experience means there might be a bit more risk in drafting Diaz than there was before. He’ll probably remain a dominant force and secure 35-plus saves for the Dodgers, but he’s volatile enough that it’s not impossible to foresee a world in which he loses this job. Remember, it happened to him for a stretch in 2024.
Tanner Scott is obviously undraftable in most leagues now, while Devin Williams seems secure a top-12 closer and a high-profile bounce-back candidate if the Mets stay out of the closer market moving forward. –Chris Towers
That the Mariners would trade Ford, who has been one of the top catcher prospects from the time he was drafted in 2021, was all but certain given the Cal Raleigh of it all. That they’d get only a blah reliever in return was unexpected. But wait, wasn’t Ferrer the Nationals‘ closer by the end of last season? Yeah, because they traded everyone else away. He throws hard, but the numbers certainly aren’t closer-caliber, and even if you want to say his 3.03 FIP is more indicative of his ability than his 4.48 ERA, so what? Left-handers who get ground balls at a high rate, while useful, generally aren’t considered top trade currency. The Mariners actually gave up a second minor-leaguer in the deal as well.
Clearly, Ferrer won’t be closing games anymore, so whatever Fantasy value he might have had is now kaput. What about Ford? Well, the Nationals do have Keibert Ruiz locked up through 2030, but he was ravaged by concussions in 2025 and has performed below expectations each of the past two seasons. Unlike Raleigh, he’s a catcher that Ford could reasonably overtake. Ford stands out most for his plate discipline, having reached base at a .408 clip in 2025 and a .405 clip for his minor league career, and he has playable pop to his pull side. He had been a prolific base-stealer in the past but put a stop to that in 2025, for some reason. With as deep as catcher is right now, you won’t need to make a big play for him even in two-catcher leagues, but that could change if he garners a lot of buzz this spring. –Scott White
There were three lesser prospects moved in this deal as well, but we’ll stick to the principle players. The Password, as Garcia is commonly known, is a borderline top-100 prospect who got nine plate appearances for the Red Sox last year after a productive showing between Double- and Triple-A. But while power is supposed to be his calling card, he delivered only an 86.4 mph average exit velocity in his 81 games at Triple-A. His home run output relies on him pulling the ball in the air with regularity, and because PNC Park rates as the worst home run venue for right-handed hitters, that’s … kind of a problem. Garcia also had a high chase rate at Triple-A, not to mention a high miss rate on pitches in the zone, so there are ample reasons for skepticism here, even if this traded offers him a much clearer path to playing time.
Oviedo also strikes me as more of a curiosity than a true asset. His nine starts late in 2025 at least showed him to be healthy after a lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery, but the outings were short, with only one exceeding five innings, and the 3.57 ERA was undercut by a 4.92 FIP. While he shows some potential as a bat-misser, it’s not nearly enough to make up for his vulnerability to walks and home runs, and my guess is that he’ll serve more as a swingman than a full-time starter for the Red Sox. –Scott White
“My guess today is that Pagan does not sign as a closer.” That’s what I said on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast Monday night. But the one way to ensure he’ll remain a closer is to re-sign with the team that just used him as a closer, and that’s exactly what happened Wednesay Monday Emilio Pagan signs with Reds re-upped him on a two-year $20 million deal.
It could work out fine. It obviously did in 2025, seeing him recording 32 saves with a 2.88 ERA. But it marked only the second time in six years that he had an ERA below 4.40, and he remained as homer-prone as ever, which accounts for the 3.72 FIP and 3.91 xFIP. Pitching in Cincinnati should only exacerbate those home run problems, and just because he dodged a bullet the first time doesn’t mean he will again. He deserves to be drafted among the top 20 relievers, just because there are only so many in line for saves, but there’s definite bust potential. –Scott White
Mullins’ production has been in decline for a while now and hit rock bottom when he batted .182 with a .565 OPS after joining the Mets in a midseason trade. But he’s still a plus defender in center field (which is more than can be said for Chandler Simpson), his exit velocities have held fairly steady even with the diminished production, and he just delivered a career-high pull-air rate. There are worse gambles a thrifty club could make than to ink a former 30/30 man to a one-year, $7 million deal. My best guess is that Mullins fits into some kind of platoon and puts up usable power/speed numbers for a five-outfielder league. Seeing as he’s a career .189 hitter with a .519 OPS at Tropicana Field, though, I’d be more likely to adjust those expectations down than up. –Scott White
Early December is apparently the time to shop for failed major league pitchers who rehabilitated their value in East Asia, because Kay becomes the third such player to sign in two days. He’s the first to sign out of Japan rather than Korea, and while his 2025 strikeout rate wasn’t nearly as impressive in Cody Ponce’s, he was playing in the tougher league.
The 1.74 ERA is a red herring (as such an ERA almost always is) because NPB has been going through a dead-ball phase the past few years, but Kay is a vastly different pitcher than when we last saw him in 2023. He’s now primarily sinker/cutter rather than fastball/slider, becoming the sort of extreme ground-ball pitcher (56 percent rate in 2025) that can overcome a modest strikeout rate, and has a much broader arsenal in general. He’s unlikely to be much more than a streamer in Fantasy, particularly pitching for a non-contender like the White Sox, but as with every pitcher who takes this career path, there is the potential for a surprise. –Scott White
Cody Ponce signs with Blue Jays
After an unremarkable stint with the Pirates earlier in the decade, Ponce spent a few years refining his game overseas, and it culminated with him earning MVP honors in the Korean Baseball Organization last year. The award is easy to understand given the numbers, but what’s behind those numbers? Apparently, he’s added 2 mph to his fastball since we last saw him in 2021, and he’s also added a kick change (sometimes identified as a splitter) that produces incredible tumbling action with its minimal spin (often below 1,000 rpm). Though he also has a sweeper, it’s the fastball and changeup that primarily account for his 12.6 K/9, the highest for any former MLB pitcher coming back from the KBO.
The Blue Jays are making a reasonable-sized commitment, too. Three years, $30 million, while having the potential to make him a bargain, isn’t stab-in-the-dark money. They’re convinced Ponce can hold down a rotation spot for them, and I’m convinced he’ll at least be viable in Fantasy, with his core components suggesting even better than that. Still, the 2026 starting pitcher crop is deep enough in upside plays that I couldn’t justify using more than a late-round pick on him. –Scott White
A former fourth-round pick of the Diamondbacks, Weiss wasn’t good enough to reach the majors before departing for Korea in 2024, but after putting together impressive numbers there in 2025 (see above), he’ll get a chance to compete for a spot in the Astros rotation on a one-year, $2.6 million deal. That’s not a great financial commitment, obviously, which suggests that a market failed to develop for the soon-to-be 29-year-old. Between that and the lack of clear explanations for Weiss’ breakthrough (beyond vague references to improved command and a broader secondary arsenal), I’m inclined to think it was less about Weiss himself than his competition. He may have stretches when he’s streamable, but barring some eye-opening performance this spring, he should go largely undrafted in Fantasy. –Scott White
The Bronx chewed up and spit out Williams, heretofore a lockdown ace of a closer, but surely the other New York borough will makes for a gentler landing. Or … not at all. In fact, this deal offers little in the way of closure because the Mets’ mountain of resources allows them to pursue another big-dollar reliever, up to and including Edwin Diaz, who would of course take precedence over Williams in the ninth inning. But the Mets are paying Williams closer money — three years, $45 million, along with additional incentives — so for now, let’s presume he’s their closer.
While we would have liked him to land in a lower-pressure locale, the only reason to cite New York as the explanation for his struggles is because there are no more obvious ones. His pitches all had the same shape and velocity. He missed bats at his usual elite rate. His 3.11 xERA and 2.68 FIP were both much lower than his 4.79 ERA. He was basically the same pitcher. The results were just worse. Normally, you’d bet on a rebound in that scenario, and I still think that’s the right move, which is why I rank him just inside my top 12 relievers. But I’d feel better had he signed somewhere else. –Scott White
While some teams were reportedly eyeing Helsley as a rotation candidate, the Orioles plan to use him as a closer with Felix Bautista (shoulder) expected out for the majority of 2016. Helsley was a great closer not so long ago, registering 49 saves with a 2.04 ERA in 2024, but he was not so great or even a closer when last we saw him, putting together a 7.20 ERA in 22 appearances for the Mets following a midseason trade from the Cardinals.
After getting to the root of the problem, which was apparently a tell in his delivery, he finished his Mets tenure with seven scoreless innings, and the Orioles evidently felt assured enough give him a two-year, $28 million deal. It’s not the sort of contract that an ace reliever who’s entirely worry-free would get, but it’s a robust commitment nonetheless. With the Orioles expected back in playoff contention, you should anticipate drafting Helsley in the 12-15 range at relief pitcher. He’s has the potential to be top five. –Scott White
$210 million is a lot of money for a pitcher coming off a 4.55 ERA. But as I wrote in my more in-depth breakdown of the signing, that ERA doesn’t come close to telling the whole story with Cease. Yes, he’s frustratingly inconsistent. He’s also a true workhorse, taking the ball every fifth day and providing volume and strikeouts. With ERA and WHIP risk, sure, but there’s obviously plenty of upside there, too. He’s going off the board in early drafts around 80th overall, as the 20th SP off the board or thereabouts, and that seems like a perfect fine value for a guy with his mixture of upside and projectable volume. There aren’t many pitchers whose absolute best-case scenario is as enticing for Fantasy as Cease’s. –Chris Towers
The Red Sox have been expected to make a big splash in either free agency or in the trade market for a rotation upgrade, and this trade might be it. Gray struggled to a 4.28 ERA and 1.23 WHIP last season, but his underlying metrics were more indicative of a top-of-rotation arm, including a 26.7% strikeout rate, 3.39 FIP and 3.29 SIERA. The 36-year-old has seen his velocity decline in consecutive seasons, however, and his quality of contact metrics took a big step back in 2025, which is why his xERA was a more pedestrian 3.90 mark. He’s a solid pitcher, both for the Red Sox and for Fantasy, but I don’t think he’s a needle-mover in either instance at this point in his career, even if the Red Sox might be able to get him in their pitching lab and squeeze some extra value out of him. There’s still room for the Red Sox to upgrade this rotation, in other words. –Chris Towers
In exchange for Gray, the Cardinals got a couple of interesting younger arms. Fitts is more of a known quantity, and he hasn’t given us much reason to be excited. He had a 5.00 ERA with even worse peripherals in 2025, so while he might slide into the Cardinals rotation, it’ll mostly be for a lack of better options. Clarke is the more interesting long-term project, with a fastball that can touch 100 mph and a slider that is already a weapon. The rest of the arsenal is a work in progress. He walked 27 in just 38 innings across two levels of A-Ball in 2025, so this is a real project. If all comes together, he might be able to hack it as a starter, but he looks more like a Ryan Helsley-in-waiting type of high-leverage bullpen arm in the long run.
The other thing worth noting here is that, with Gray out of the picture and Miles Mikolas leaving via free agency, there are multiple holes in the Cardinals rotation right now. Prospects Quinn Mathews and Tink Hence have experience in the high minors and could be options for the 2026 rotation, though both have troublesome 2025 campaigns that could lead the team to want to see more success at Triple-A before they make that call. For Fantasy, those are both names to know heading into spring training in case they can steal rotation spots. Liam Doyle, a 2025 first-round pick, seems likely to be more of a midseason consideration after he threw just 3 2/3 post-draft innings in the pros, but he could absolutely be a fast riser early in 2026, too. –Chris Towers
The Mets and Rangers continued the early offseason trend of trading major leaguers for other major leaguers in an exchange of two aging ones with multiple years remaining on their deals. Nimmo, who’s 32, has shown only faint signs of decline, if even those, continuing to make worthwhile contributions in home runs and stolen bases with big run and RBI production. He’s joining a worse lineup that plays in a worse venue, but any changes to his production would be slight, presuming good health.
Semien, who’s 35, has seen his production nosedive the past two years, but this trade may serve to slow or even reverse the decline given the park upgrade. Statcast estimates he’d have a dozen more home runs during that same two-year span if he had played every game at Citi Field. That’s my biggest takeaway from this trade, but Chris Towers has written a complete breakdown of it, which you can find here. –Scott White
Iglesias re-ups for one year at exactly the same rate ($16 million) as the previous three. Clearly, the Braves were looking for continuity, and that makes the analysis here rather easy. He’s the closer again for an expected contender and a near lock for 30 saves, provided he stays healthy. He missed that number by one in 2025, mostly because of some early-season struggles. Once he cut back on his slider, though, he was clearly back to form, compiling a 1.25 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 in his final 45 appearances. That’ll play, all right, and positions Iglesias to be one of the first 12 relievers off the board in 2026. –Scott White
What a fall for Rodriguez, who was regarded a couple years ago as one of the game’s burgeoning aces after a multi-year run as a top-10 overall prospect. Now, the Orioles have dealt him away for one year of some 32-year-old outfielder who just hit .228. That’s not entirely fair to Ward, who also connected for 36 home runs in 2025, but most projections have him regressing to 25-30 in 2026. He’s also joining a team that’s loaded with solid-but-less-than-All-Star-worthy corner bats. There already wasn’t room in the lineup for all of Dylan Beavers, Samuel Basallo, Coby Mayo, Tyler O’Neill and Ryan Mountcastle. Now, there’s room for one fewer. It won’t be Ward, but does that mean we’ll have to wait even longer for Basallo to contribute in Fantasy? If so, that’s a bummer.
But the real story here is Rodriguez, who Angels GM Perry Minasian says is expected to be ready for spring training after missing all of 2025 with lat and elbow issues. The lat has been a recurring problem, also costing Rodriguez time in 2024 and as a minor leaguer in 2022, and the elbow required debridement surgery in August. The Orioles only made this deal because they couldn’t trust him to stay healthy, but having said that, he wouldn’t be the first pitcher to overcome a multi-year injury trend and still go on to meet his potential. We have no evidence that his stuff has diminished with this latest rash of injuries, so I’m still inclined to rank him as a top 75 starting pitcher for 2026. This trade is sure to give some drafters pause even at that late stage, though. –Scott White
Grisham’s decision to accept the qualifying offer is a curious one given that he just had far and away his best season, homering 34 times as the primary center fielder for the Yankees. Some major outlets were projecting him to receive a four- or five-year deal for a similar annual value as the qualifying offer, but his agent probably has a better read on the market.
If nothing else, you could say he’s betting on himself with this move, hoping to re-enter the market next offseason without the stigma of being a one-hit wonder, but now comes the hard part: doing it again. You might think the return to Yankee Stadium will help, given that he’s a left-handed batter, but he actually hit two-thirds of his home runs on the road. If the Yankees are serious about giving Jasson Dominguez regular playing time next year and also bringing back Cody Bellinger, Grisham may be fighting for at-bats again. The Yankees still make for a better landing than a lot of clubs, but you can understand why drafters might approach Grisham with some skepticism in 2026. –Scott White
A modest showing by Torres in 2025 led him to accept the Tigers’ qualifying offer rather than testing the free agent market, and you might think a return to Comerica Park is a bad move for his Fantasy value given its reputation. But it actually played well for right-handed hitters in 2025, and Torres batted .285 with a .449 slugging percentage there compared to .223 and .327 on the road. On balance, he performed well below his .271 xBA and .452 xSLG, having delivered his best average exit velocity in three years and some of his best walk and strikeout numbers ever, so some better luck would go a long way toward redeeming him in Fantasy. He’s not a surefire top-12 choice, though, even at a position as thin as second base. –Scott White
Something tells me that if Woodruff hadn’t gone into the offseason nursing a lat injury, he wouldn’t have had to accept the Brewers’ qualifying offer, instead pursuing a multi-year deal. But now, he’s back in prove-it mode after already overcoming a more significant shoulder injury in near miraculous fashion. Even though the shoulder capsule surgery that he underwent in 2023 took 3 mph off his fastball — normally a career-ender for a pitcher, particularly one so fastball-reliant — he basically picked up where he left off statistically, even delivering the best strikeout rate of his career. A new cutter is largely to credit for saving him, and his fortunes rose and fell with its usage. He’ll be plenty motivated now that he’s pitching for a contract again, but he would have been worth selecting among the top 36 starting pitchers either way. –Scott White
The Cubs’ decision to decline Imanaga’s three-year, $57.5 million option after the season makes more sense now that we see the way everything played out. They probably suspected he’d accept the $22.025 million qualifying offer, which he did, so now they still have him but without the multi-year commitment.
The maneuver would seem to alleviate suspicions that he’s cooked, which were worth entertaining given that a number of key metrics fell off during his sophomore season, namely his K/9 rate (from 9.0 to 7.3) and his swinging-strike rate (from 14.5 percent to 11.9 percent). It’s sort of misleading to call it his sophomore season given that he’s 32, and his age contributed to those fears of decline as well. Still, he was effective when healthy, remaining a standout for WHIP in particular. No one will mistake him for an ace in 2026, but he should be drafted in the middle rounds. –Scott White
Normally, a hitter signing with the Mariners wouldn’t be the most favorable outcome given T-Mobile Park’s reputation as a pitcher-friendly venue. But Naylor didn’t have any problems there after coming over in a midseason trade with the Diamondbacks, batting .360 (32 for 89) with five homers and a 1.015 OPS in the Mariners’ home games.
Moreover, the Mariners seemed to unlock the base-stealer in him. His 11 stolen bases in 93 games with the Diamondbacks were surprising enough, but then he had 19 in just 54 games with the Mariners. Given his 3rd percentile sprint speed, some other team might have put a stop to that, but the Mariners don’t seem to care. He was succeeding, after all. It’s doubtful he steals 30 again, which is why he remains only eighth in my first base rankings, but a return to the Mariners improves Naylor’s chances of remaining a base-stealer in some capacity. For more, check out Chris Towers’ full-length article. –Scott White
