A bus fire in a town west of the Swiss capital killed at least six people and three others were hospitalized with severe injuries, police said Tuesday.
Police spokesperson Frederic Papaux of Fribourg canton, or region, said the inferno broke out Tuesday evening in the town of Kerzers, about 15 miles west of Bern, the capital of Switzerland.
“At this stage, we have elements suggesting a deliberate act by a person who was inside the bus,” Papaux said at a news conference, according to Reuters.
Police would not elaborate on why they believe the fire could have been deliberately started. Fribourg police said in a statement that a criminal investigation had been opened by public prosecutors “to determine the exact circumstances of the tragedy.”
Authorities said they could not immediately confirm reports that a person had doused themselves in gasoline, CBS News partner the BBC reported.
Fire investigators examine the charred shell of a postal bus that caught fire in Kerzers, Switzerland, Tuesday, March 10, 2026, after several passengers were killed and others injured when a postal bus caught fire late Tuesday afternoon in the center of Kerzers, according to the Fribourg cantonal police.
Alessandro della Valle/Keystone via AP
The regional transport bus is operated by PostBus, which is affiliated with the national postal service. Images from the scene on Swiss media showed flames tearing through the bus.
“After rushing to the scene, rescue teams noted that the vehicle was totally engulfed in flames,” the regional government said in a statement.
Ambulance and helicopter teams ferried three injured people with severe injuries to hospitals, while two others were treated on site, police said.
The showers and thunderstorms moving through New Mexico Tuesday will clear out tonight. Warmer weather will build statewide through the end of the week, with record high temperatures possible by Saturday. A storm system brought scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the state Tuesday. The heaviest rain has been focused in southwest New Mexico, […]
They say time heals all wounds, but at least one of these canceled country stars would like to argue otherwise.
Words matter. Actions — especially illegal actions — matter. It’s never just about the music, and frankly, that’s a good thing.
When someone is accused of sexual assault and the evidence file is thick, the larger population should pause and consider a punishment not available to a judge.
This list of canceled country stars features three racial slurs, one anti-gay musing and one political statement that by comparison feels minor league to the transgressions around it. Sometimes an artist bounces back. Actually, that’s the truth for five of the eight celebrities listed below.
As for the other three? Well, we’ll see. Maybe we need even more time.
What Does It Mean to Be Canceled?
“Canceled” is a term loosely used to describe the loss of significant professional opportunities or status among the general population. It usually begins with a provocative statement or action. Then, public sentiment grows to condemn that statement/action, and by extension, the human being responsible.
Attempts to weaponize cancellation are usually short-lived, especially if the transgression happened years ago. Contrition can go a long way to right wrong-headed statements made as a teenager.
Sometimes an act is so heinous that the star just can’t come back, and you’ll find a couple of examples of this on our list of canceled stars.
Amazingly, one superstar did come back after being canceled in another genre. In fact, he’s now in the Country Music Hall of Fame.
This list is an accounting of what happened, with no intended opinion on the outcome. It’s fair to argue that justice was served in some cases and over-served in others, but we won’t be the ones to lead that convo right now.
8 Canceled Country Celebrities + What They Did To Earn It
There are certain things you never say and certainly things you never do in country music. Honestly, most of what got these eight celebrities canceled in country would get you scrubbed in other forms of entertainment as well, but not all of them (see No. 4 and No. 7).
This list is here to report history, not to offer an opinion on if justice was served. Five of the eight stars bounced back, and one even worked his way into the Country Music Hall of Fame. Time heals most wounds, it seems.
The drone maker now expects adjusted earnings per share of $2.75 to $3.10 for the fiscal year, compared with $3.40 a share to $3.55 a share previously.
Eight players either became the highest paid at their respective position or the highest-paid free agent at their position in terms of average annual salary.
McDuffie, Tunsil, Linderbaum and Stout all earned the sought-after crown as the highest-paid players ever at their respective positions. Phillips, Pierce, Walker and Likely all took home the title of owning the highest-paid free agent contracts at their respective positions.
As we turn the page to Tuesday, there are still plenty of veterans, young and old, who could be impactful contributors in 2026 who are still on the open market. Here’s a look at the top 10 free agents still remaining on Day 2 of the league’s negotiating window.
For more 2026 NFL free agency coverage:
Age: 30
Pro Bowls: 1 (2021)
First-team All-Pro teams: 1 (2021)
Deebo Samuel lost a step in 2025, and he also had to battle through quarterback instability with 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels missing 10 games with injuries. Samuel averaged a career-low 10.1 yards per reception in 2025, and the two lowest receiving yards per game total of his seven-year career have come in 2024 (44.7) and 2025 (45.4). Samuel isn’t the same bulldozing Swiss Army knife that once served as the focal point of Kyle Shanahan’s San Francisco 49ers offense. He can still knock would-be tacklers over in the open field after the catch, as evidenced by his playmaking against the Dallas Cowboys on Christmas, but his separation in his route running is slipping. Samuel still has value in 2026, but it’s not what it once was in his prime.
Age: 29
Pro Bowls: 1 (2023)
First-team All-Pro teams: 0
David Njoku tumbled down the depth chart while battling through knee injuries for most of 2025. Rookie Harold Fannin Jr. quickly became a go-to guy for quarterback Shedeur Sanders this season. If healthy, he’s a valuable middle of the field and red zone playmaker. Turning 30 in 2026 and dealing with injuries should make him a more cost conscious target than in years past.
Age: 28
Pro Bowls: 0
First-team All-Pro teams: 0
Jaylinn Hawkins was a 2020 fourth-round pick of the Atlanta Falcons, bounced around to the Los Angeles Chargers and then landed with the New England Patriots in 2024. In 2025, he leveled up to being an impact contributor. Hawkins does a little bit of everything with four interceptions, six passes defended, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and one-and-a-half sacks in 15 games played, all starts. Pro Football Focus grades Hawkins as its No. 5 overall safety with an 83.3 defensive grade. He should net a solid contract thanks to his ability to bolster a team’s defensive backfield.
Joey Bosa has been an underrated piece to the Buffalo Bills‘ defense this season. He’s not the same guy he was in the late 2010s because of injuries, but Pro Football Focus grades him as their seventh-highest graded pass-rushing edge defender with an 88.7 grade in 2025. He also led the league with five forced fumbles. Bosa can help stabilize any team’s pass rush this offseason.
Aaron Rodgers is the best player who’s currently a free agent, but being in the twilight of his career is why he isn’t ranked higher. He still has some magic left in him after throwing a game-winning, 26-yard touchdown pass to Steelers wide receiver Calvin Austin III with 55 seconds left in a 26-24 win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18. That victory sent Pittsburgh back to the postseason as AFC North champions.
His playoff performance was disappointing, but many offensive lines and quarterbacks failed to hold up against the Houston Texans‘ dynamic duo Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. Even though he clearly can’t scramble in the pocket like he used to, Rodgers can still make some highlight-reel throws when given time to throw. A return to the Pittsburgh Steelers or a pit stop with the Minnesota Vikings would make plenty of sense.
Age: 28
Pro Bowls: 0
First-team All-Pro teams: 0
Jauan Jennings was the unsung hero of the San Francisco 49ers‘ offense. He does the dirty work over the middle with strong hands, which makes him one of the best in the league at moving the sticks.
His overall stats in 2025 weren’t eye-popping, but Jennings didn’t have starting quarterback Brock Purdy for seven games. From Week 11 when Purdy returned in 2025 to the end of the regular season, Jennings’ six receiving touchdowns tied for the second-most in the NFL in that span with Puka Nacua, Christian Watson and Michael Wilson. He’s also versatile as his 29-yard passing touchdown to Christian McCaffrey in the 49ers’ opening-round playoff win over the Philadelphia Eagles indicated. Jennings possesses two career playoff passing touchdowns, which is tied for the most in NFL history by a non-QB along with Bronko Nagurski.
Age: 26
Pro Bowls: 1 (2022)
First-team All-Pro teams: 0
Tariq Woolen‘s build (6-4, 210 pounds) makes him an anomaly as an NFL cornerback. He soared instantly as a rookie in 2022, co-leading the league with six interceptions in Pete Carroll’s Cover 3 defense with some press-man coverage mixed in. Current head coach’s Mike Macdonald’s scheme is more complex with a higher volume of disguised zone looks, and he hasn’t matched the promise of his rookie year. However, Woolen could thrive once again in a different scheme given his high-level traits and early career production.
Age: 25
Pro Bowls: 0
First-team All-Pro teams: 0
Rasheed Walker played in all 17 games in each of the last three years and started all but three of them for the Green Bay Packers. Walker’s 93.8% pass block win rate ranked 11th among 68 qualified offensive tackles in 2025, per ESPN and Next Gen Stats. A durable left tackle in the middle of his 20s, who is a strong pass blocker, is going to get paid. Offensive tackle is one of the hardest position groups to find consistency at around the league these days, and that will get Walker compensated well this offseason.
2. Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray
Age: 28
Pro Bowls: 2 (2020-2021)
First-team All-Pro teams: 1 (2024)
Kyler Murray is an intriguing free agency option since the Cardinals owe him $37 million in guaranteed money after releasing him with three years left on a five-year, $230.5 million contract. That means he could sign with any other time on the veteran minimum for 2026 before he’ll push for a multiyear deal in 2027. The time that signs him can have a no-risk, first look of sorts this year.
Yes, he’s only played 12-plus games once in the last four years, but he’s also one of four players in NFL history with at least 20,000 yards passing and 30-plush rushing touchdowns in their first seven seasons. The other three are all NFL MVP-winning quarterbacks: Josh Allen (2024), Cam Newton (2015) and Lamar Jackson (2019 and 2023). In a much better offensive ecosystem, perhaps the 2019 NFL Draft‘s first overall pick could find his groove once again.
Age: 31
Pro Bowls: 4 (2021-2024)
First-team All-Pro teams: 1 (2024)
Hendrickson and the Bengals aren’t getting back together after failed contract extension negotiations after he racked up 17.5 sacks in both 2023 and 2024 (led the NFL in 2024). He should have a robust market.
However, Hendrickson underwent core muscle surgery that ended his 2025 season short after seven games. He’s been one of the best pass rushers in football since becoming a Bengal as he is only the fifth player since sacks became an official, individually tracked statistic in 1982 to produce 17-plus sacks in consecutive years
He wins with phenomenal usage of his hands in tandem with great bend off the line of scrimmage, two elements that could age well even after the core muscle procedure. It will be interesting to see how his market evolves given his age and 2025 season after a historic stretch in the two years prior.
Firefighters and police officers install barriers to secure the area where a postal bus caught fire in Kerzers, Switzerland, Tuesday, March 10, 2026, after several passengers were killed and others injured when a postal bus caught fire late Tuesday afternoon in the center of Kerzers, according to the Fribourg cantonal police. (Laurent Merlet/Keystone via AP)
Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano was erupting and prompted the U.S. Geological Survey on Tuesday evening to raise the Volcano Alert Level to a “warning.”A Volcanic Activity Notice issued by the U.S. Geological Survey at 10:54 a.m. HST Tuesday said the alert level was moved from a “watch” to a “warning,” and that the aviation color warning had been upgraded from “orange” to “red.”According to USGS, a “WARNING” alert level means “a hazardous eruption is imminent, underway, or suspected,” and an aviation color of “red” means an eruption with “significant ash emission is imminent, underway, or suspected.” The aviation code colors of red and orange are focused on whether there is a threat to aviation posed by volcanic ash, USGS’s website states.USGS said it’s the 43rd episode of the volcano erupting, and that lava fountaining in Halemaʻumaʻu started at the summit of Kīlauea at 9:17 a.m. HST on Tuesday, and was continuing to erupt. Kiluea is located on the southeastern shore of the Island of Hawaii.”Fallout up to football-sized pieces and smaller are reported at overlooks in Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park, creating hazardous ground conditions,” USGS said in the notice.USGS said that the National Weather Service or Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center had reported that the plume from the eruption was reaching 25,000 feet above sea level, and that Ground-level sensors near the eruptive vents indicate that winds are blowing from the south direction, which suggests that volcanic gas emissions and volcanic material may be distributed to the north direction from Halemaʻumaʻu.In a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, around 5:50 p.m. ET, USGS said, “Both the south and north vents are currently about 1,300 feet high.” USGS also said small tephra, or small glassy volcanic fragments, up to 1-2 inches, are falling in Volcano Village, and that a light fall of tephra is also reported from the community of Royal Hawaiian Estates.In an earlier Facebook post, USGS said golf course housing and Highway 11 were being hit with tephra of up to five inches.USGS said most lava fountaining episodes at Kilauea since Dec. 23, 2024, have continued for a day or less.
Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano was erupting and prompted the U.S. Geological Survey on Tuesday evening to raise the Volcano Alert Level to a “warning.”
A Volcanic Activity Notice issued by the U.S. Geological Survey at 10:54 a.m. HST Tuesday said the alert level was moved from a “watch” to a “warning,” and that the aviation color warning had been upgraded from “orange” to “red.”
According to USGS, a “WARNING” alert level means “a hazardous eruption is imminent, underway, or suspected,” and an aviation color of “red” means an eruption with “significant ash emission is imminent, underway, or suspected.” The aviation code colors of red and orange are focused on whether there is a threat to aviation posed by volcanic ash, USGS’s website states.
USGS said it’s the 43rd episode of the volcano erupting, and that lava fountaining in Halemaʻumaʻu started at the summit of Kīlauea at 9:17 a.m. HST on Tuesday, and was continuing to erupt. Kiluea is located on the southeastern shore of the Island of Hawaii.
“Fallout up to football-sized pieces and smaller are reported at overlooks in Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park, creating hazardous ground conditions,” USGS said in the notice.
USGS said that the National Weather Service or Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center had reported that the plume from the eruption was reaching 25,000 feet above sea level, and that Ground-level sensors near the eruptive vents indicate that winds are blowing from the south direction, which suggests that volcanic gas emissions and volcanic material may be distributed to the north direction from Halemaʻumaʻu.
In a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, around 5:50 p.m. ET, USGS said, “Both the south and north vents are currently about 1,300 feet high.” USGS also said small tephra, or small glassy volcanic fragments, up to 1-2 inches, are falling in Volcano Village, and that a light fall of tephra is also reported from the community of Royal Hawaiian Estates.
In an earlier Facebook post, USGS said golf course housing and Highway 11 were being hit with tephra of up to five inches.
USGS said most lava fountaining episodes at Kilauea since Dec. 23, 2024, have continued for a day or less.
Metallica have responded to the overwhelming demand for tickets to their upcoming Life Burns Faster residency at the Sphere, after thousands of fans spent hours in online queues during last week’s ticket sales.
The thrash metal icons launched ticket sales for the highly anticipated run in Las Vegas, and the response was immediate. Even after expanding the residency to 24 performances, many fans were still unable to secure seats.
In a statement released March 10, the band expressed gratitude for the record-breaking interest while acknowledging the frustration many experienced during the buying process.
“Wow! What a week. We are so appreciative and grateful to all of you for the incredible response to our upcoming Life Burns Faster residency at Sphere in Las Vegas. We are completely and utterly blown away and cannot believe that we will have 24 amazing nights on stage there, all thanks to you and a record-breaking week.”
Despite the enormous demand, Metallica confirmed that no additional shows will be added at this time, though they left the door open for future possibilities: “At this point in time, we will not be adding additional shows, but we are hoping to offer more in the future.”
The band also acknowledged that the ticket-buying experience was far from perfect, promising improvements for future events: “We hear you loud and clear that the ticket-buying process was often frustrating and not always smooth. We’re working with our partners to improve this experience and offer some remedies for the next time around.”
Before the Sphere residency begins, Metallica will return to the road with the next leg of their M72 World Tour, which resumes across Europe this spring and summer starting in May.
The band teased what lies ahead in 2026: “We are looking forward to a very exciting 2026, starting off with seeing many of you in Europe this spring and summer as the M72 tour hits the road again in May. Before we know it, we’ll be exploring new frontiers along with fans from around the world in Las Vegas, and we can’t wait!”
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It’s a bit quaint to look back on the past in the NBA and remember the late-season playoff hunts. Teams were really seeking the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage through the playoffs. When Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls had their double three-peat in the 1990s, you know what their record was from March 5 through the end of the regular season? 112-30. They won 79% of their games, and Jordan didn’t sit them out.
With load management and the play-in tournament, there are different ways of managing a team’s late stretch to set up for playoff success. The Indiana Pacers came from the 4-seed to nearly take out the Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Finals last season. The Dallas Mavericks came from a 5-seed to make the Finals the year before. So now there are different targets. A top-six seed is important to avoid the play-in, but note that Miami made the Finals in 2023 after going through the play-in.
What follows are some of the races for different seeds that teams hope to set themselves up for in the playoffs in April.
The Thunder and Spurs each have at least a 98% chance to stay in the top two seeds in the West. The play-in spots are nearly locked in across the Suns, Warriors, Clippers and Trail Blazers, with some uncertainty in their order. But there is a race among four teams to get to the two remaining first-round home-court advantage spots.
Projected record: 51-31 (55% chance at top-four seed) Remaining strength of schedule rank: 10th hardest Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 4 (Washington, Utah, Sacramento, Chicago, Dallas, Memphis, and Indiana are considered to be tankful teams)
With ESPN Analytics, we tend to approach things quantitatively, capturing the essence of a story through numbers. Houston, for example, wins games by an average of plus-4.7 points, with a league-leading plus-4.1 of that coming solely from its offensive rebounding. The Rockets are also good in transition offense, getting plus-3.4 net points per game, ranking No. 7 in the NBA. They also turn it over a lot, 15.7 times per game, the most of any team currently in playoff position. On the other end of the floor, they’re top seven on defense.
Sometimes those numbers paint a nice picture. In this case, if you look carefully, a lot of those numbers for Houston are actually a lot like the Detroit Pistons, the best team in the league. The Pistons are fourth in offensive rebounding and fifth in transition offense, have the third most turnovers among playoff teams, and play top-five defense.
So does Houston have a chance to pull it together like Detroit? When watching the tape, what comes to mind are words such as “ugly,” “ill-fitting” and “disconnected.”
For the Rockets’ sake, hopefully the stretch run follows the numbers, not the words.
Critical games: Two games against the Lakers (March 16 and 18), two games against the Wolves (March 25, April 10) and a game against Denver on Wednesday.
Projected record: 50-32 (52% chance at top-four seed) Remaining strength of schedule rank: Fourth hardest Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 3
The Timberwolves have had the fewest losses added by injury this season, a year removed from being fourth best at it. Their general health is a superpower that partially makes up for them being just generally good, not great. They’re top 10 in almost every extended four-factor metric, but they’re in the top five in only one: transition offense.
Anthony Edwards is great, though. He is top 15 in overall net points metrics — whether it’s total net points, net points per 100 possessions or WAR. That’s All-NBA level, but is it blow-you-away great? Ant has the one-word nickname, but is he up there with SGA, Jokic, Luka, Kawhi and Spida? Does he need to be? Tyrese Haliburton carried a solid Indiana roster to within a few minutes of a title last season as the No. 4 seed. The Pacers earned that spot by having a 15-4 record from March 11 to the end of the season. Minnesota has the fourth-most-difficult schedule down the stretch, so it will be hard to do that, but Indiana coincidentally had the fifth-hardest schedule down the stretch last season as well.
Critical games: Lakers (Tuesday), Clippers (Wednesday) and Warriors (Friday). That could be a fun or agonizing trip. Then a pause before two against Houston (March 25 and April 10).
Projected record: 50-32 (59% chance at top-four seed) Remaining strength of schedule rank: 12th hardest Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 5
The biggest hurdle the Nuggets face down the stretch is the sudden malaise of Nikola Jokic (or mal-wrist, per ESPN’s Brian Windhorst). For years, he has been a standout in terms of performance, as legitimately the best player on the planet. The Nuggets were dominant with him on the court and bad with him off it. His ability to make a pass no one else could imagine turned them into an automatic top offense.
The Nuggets had the best offense before his injury this season, and he was the second-best offensive player in the league (behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander). Since his return, their offense has fallen to sixth and his net points per 48 minutes level has dropped to seventh. Did they use Jokic-style kryptonite as part of his rehab?
Sure, the Nuggets are missing Aaron Gordon and he’s important, but only Jokic makes opponents fear them. And he hasn’t been right.
Critical games: One game against the Lakers (March 14), a game against Houston (March 11), two games against the Spurs (April 4 and 12) and a game against the Warriors (March 29).
Projected record: 48-34 (31% chance at top-four seed) Remaining strength of schedule rank: Sixth hardest Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 5
The phrase “treating people like numbers” implies an impersonal touch to working with people. In the great game of basketball, especially in the analytics era that I helped push myself, I think of this as often manifesting itself somewhat in lineup analysis: Which lineups are good and which are bad? The Lakers have messed around with a lot of lineups. Who can we play with Luka Doncic and LeBron James to actually be good? Should we play Austin Reaves as a starter or as a reserve? Should we play Jarred Vanderbilt at all?
Those are questions that numbers can provide some guidance on, but coaching is about figuring out how to best put those same players together and then teaching them. It’s not just about fiddling with the pieces, but also making those pieces work together better.
And that is what is staring down coach JJ Redick currently, the past six months and the next couple of months: how to coach the guys he has so they do their roles better. It isn’t happening now. Doncic, James and Reaves are all good, but they don’t complement each other: James and Reaves have better offensive net points rates without Doncic; Doncic and Reaves are better without James; and Doncic and James are better without Reaves. Figuring out how they can best work together could take the Lakers into the top four and beyond with the talent they have.
Critical games: The next 10 days or so are critical, with two games against Houston and one apiece against Denver and Minnesota. Winning all of them is hard, but these guys all want the spotlight, and these games will bring it.
Eastern Conference 2-seed
In the East, the Celtics, Knicks and Cavs are bunched up in a heat to get the No. 2 seed, with their chances to capture it changing a good amount with each game. But then there is also a four-way fight between the Raptors, Sixers, Magic and Heat to get the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds to avoid the play-in.
Projected record: 53-29 (53% chance at top-two seed) Remaining strength of schedule rank: Hardest Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 2
The Celtics have the hardest schedule remaining per the BPI, but Jayson Tatum is back! His return — despite questions of how well he’ll fit in — is viewed favorably by the BPI, which is why it gives them good odds at the No. 2 seed in the East. It is really assuming that he comes back close to where he has been (a top-15 player). If he is at that level, the medical staff did their job and he got sufficient reps with all the rotation players who weren’t there when he got hurt — Hugo Gonzalez, Nikola Vucevic, Luka Garza.
The Celtics have done a great job ignoring the Tatum question in the room so far and taking care of business. They aren’t actually better than last season (when they won 61 games), but it feels like it because they never put up a stinker (until the Charlotte game last Wednesday). They’re the anti-Lakers, who seem to either win or get blown out this season. Tatum’s return is only going to add to their competitiveness and their talent level. Any awkwardness in fitting Tatum with teammates is better to work out before the playoffs, regardless of what seed they get.
Critical games: The game against the Knicks on April 9 looks critical now, but there is a whole month ahead of that matchup to determine whether it stays critical. The Celtics still get the Thunder twice and the Spurs once, which are more critical as tests of their high-end competitiveness than toward keeping the second seed.
Projected record: 53-29 (38% chance at top-two seed) Remaining strength of schedule rank: 24th hardest Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 6
You know what probably hurts the Knicks the most? The fact that their fan base thinks they’re title favorites after every win and that they should trade every guy on their roster (except Jalen Brunson) after every loss.
Yes, the Knicks are inconsistent. OG Anunoby, Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges are all among the top 50 most inconsistent players across the past three seasons. (The fan base would subjectively add Karl-Anthony Towns, too.) What this means is, over the past nearly three seasons, Anunoby has had 44 games with plus-3 net points or more, 44 games with worse than minus-3 net points, and 84 games in between. He’s good for a game, average for two, and then bad for a game. With two other guys following the same pattern, that’s a big reason the fan base is frustrated.
Critical games: The Knicks play Boston on April 9, and it could be critical for both teams to get the No. 2. Outside of that, taking care of some of their tough matchups — Houston, Charlotte and the Clippers — is what would benefit them the most.
Projected record: 52-30 (11% chance at top-two seed) Remaining strength of schedule rank: 29th hardest Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 7
Despite what has seemed like a disappointing season for the Cavs, they have the second-best offense when schedule-adjusted and the BPI ranks them fifth overall in terms of playoff strength (which is when the best players will fight through injury).
But the BPI liked them in the playoffs last year, and they disappointed with a second-round exit to the Indiana Pacers. That has been the theme for this team: playoff disappointments despite how strong the regular season was. Donovan Mitchell has spun the regular-season struggles this year as an opportunity to learn to fight through adversity in preparation for the upcoming playoffs. With that mentality, I’m not sure the Cavs care about getting the No. 2 seed. They’ll be happy anywhere in the top four in the East, and they have a 98% chance of that.
Critical games: The Cavs have no head-to-head matchups left with either Boston or New York, so it’s really about taking care of business against a pretty easy schedule.
Projected record: 45-37 (54% chance at top-six seed) Remaining strength of schedule rank: 17th hardest Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 4
The Raptors are 6-17 against the BPI top 10 teams in the NBA, and they have gone 10-13 against the teams remaining on their schedule. Their ability to keep the play-in at bay is currently questionable at best. The BPI might give them a solid 54% chance of making the top six in the East, but it has whiffed more on Toronto predictions this season than any other playoff contender other than Philadelphia.
The BPI doesn’t trust the Raptors. Why? One part is normal: Their best player just isn’t elite. Scottie Barnes is a good player, but he’s not an All-NBA caliber player yet. The other part is that they’ve been playing without a legitimate center for much of the season — Barnes, Collin Murray-Boyles and Sandro Mamukelashvili have filled in as a committee. Barnes and Murray-Boyles are tough, and Mamukelashvili is tall, so it gives them a chance. But having Jakob Poeltl return from injury recently is what can really help because he’s good in putbacks. The Raptors can get offensive boards, but size like Poeltl’s helps a lot in converting them into points.
Critical games: The Raptors get Miami twice in the last week of the season, and those games will likely be important. Orlando at the end of March also will be critical.
Projected record: 44-38 (24% chance at top-six seed) Remaining strength of schedule rank: 21st hardest Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 6
Tyrese Maxey leads the NBA in net points coming in transition — a combination of volume and efficiency. But when the Sixers faced the second-best transition defense in the league, the Spurs on March 3, Maxey was stymied in both transition and the half court. And that’s important for the Sixers down the stretch.
Maxey has averaged plus-5.3 offensive net points per game when the Sixers win, minus-0.4 when they lose, the biggest split on the Sixers and a top-10 split across the league. Without a healthy Joel Embiid or Paul George, he has to carry a lot, so it’s not too difficult for playoff-level teams to limit him. Embiid’s performance has been good this season at plus-3.2 net points per 48 minutes, but you never know when he’s going to play. We know that George won’t be back until later in March with his suspension, so Maxey will be carrying the load for a while once he returns from his right finger sprain.
Critical games: The Sixers have only one game remaining against this tier of teams (at Miami, March 30) and it’s their most critical game. Then doing some hard work to beat Charlotte, Minnesota, Houston and Detroit will help them. Otherwise, it’s not a tough schedule.
Projected record: 44-38 (50% chance at top-six seed) Remaining strength of schedule rank: 14th hardest Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 5
Orlando gets seven games against tanking teams. So far this season, the Magic’s nominal team leader, Paolo Banchero, actually hasn’t been very good against those teams, averaging just plus-1.9 net points per 48 minutes, which is 110th. But that was when the tankers still wanted to win! Since the deadline, which is when tanksgiving began, Banchero has produced plus-5.3 net points per 48 minutes. If he keeps that up, it should help as he has Orlando’s highest usage rate.
But, that list of most inconsistent players I mentioned regarding the Knicks before — Banchero leads that, as No. 1 in most inconsistent performances in the past three years. If you want to know whether the Magic will win or lose, look to him.
Critical games: The Magic get Toronto and Miami before the end of March, and those games will go the furthest in impacting their top-six hopes. Keeping Charlotte and Atlanta (twice) at bay are their other big ones.
Projected record: 45-37 (55% chance at top-six seed) Remaining strength of schedule rank: 22nd hardest Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 4
Miami is the team that went 11-30 in 2016-17, then went 30-11 the rest of the way. I always remember that when it comes to Erik Spoelstra-led teams. They can really turn the ship around in a hurry. The Heat did it when they went to the Finals against Denver in 2023, as well, after having to go through the play-in as the No. 8 seed.
They’re probably saying, “We don’t need no top-six seed.”
Well, the coaching staff isn’t saying that. Coaches generally are some of the most worried people in the game. They want every game to be easy and, frankly, the Heat have a mixed bag of easy and hard. They get the Wizards three times, but …
Critical games: As the weather turns hot in Miami, so does the schedule. The Heat play Toronto twice, as well as Charlotte, Philadelphia and Orlando the rest of the way, all games that will shape the final top six.
