Some days, especially in the slower summer season, I have to search a bit for what I want to write about. Then there are days like Monday where there’s a random MLB matinee out of the blue, and that basically tells me where I’m headed. The Phillies close a series in Kansas City behind ace lefty Cristopher Sanchez with a 2:10 ET first pitch. Not too often we see a Monday series finale.
Phillies vs. Royals MLB same-game parlay
- Philadelphia money line
- Under 1.5 first-inning runs
- Alt Under 10.5 total
FanDuel SGP price: +153
It looked there for a minute that Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski could run away with the NL Cy Young Award, and he’s still the -225 favorite. But he was just hit hard in a major rarity last Thursday in a loss to Cincinnati and that got Sanchez a bit closer on the DraftKings oddsboard, where he’s now priced +240 to win the hardware. And if Sanchez dominates today, which seems somewhat likely considering the Royals are an almost comedically bad 6-20 vs. southpaws, then they might be nearly neck-and-neck. Those 20 losses to southpaws lead the majors and the six wins are tied for the fewest.
Sanchez (10-3, 2.00 ERA) was roughed up himself two starts ago to fall out of the Cy Young lead but was back in form last Tuesday when he beat the visiting Pirates with seven shutout innings and only three hits allowed. The impressive effort came despite Sanchez dealing with a small cut on the top of his left thumb with some blood splattered on his white pants.
“It happens sometimes when I throw the changeup,” Sánchez said via the team’s interpreter afterward. “It’s no big deal.”
It was the 29-year-old’s eighth outing this season not allowing an earned run. But because he’s usually such a big favorite, you would only be up $176 if you had wagered $100 on Philly to win each of his 18 starts.
We may well see Sanchez start next Tuesday’s All-Star Game in Philadelphia as he has been named to the squad for a second time. Obviously, “the Miz” has a case to start as well and Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy has said that Misiorowski will stay in the rotation heading into the break.
That means he is due to go Tuesday in St. Louis and then Sunday in Pittsburgh. If he does pitch Sunday, then he wouldn’t pitch in the ASG on such short rest. Sanchez’s final pre-break start is scheduled for Saturday in Detroit, so he should be OK for an inning in the Midsummer Classic in his own ballpark.
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For today, the SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Sanchez at 6.7 innings pitched, 6.9 strikeouts, 5.7 hits allowed and 1.9 earned runs. At DraftKings, he has been given over/under totals of 19.5 outs recorded and 6.5 Ks. There five Phillies on the NL All-Star squad thus far, tying the Dodgers for most, and I’m hoping one of them, Kyle Schwarber, competes in the Home Run Derby. And I might like him today for a dinger — see below.
Sanchez’s lone career start vs. Kansas City didn’t go well as he took a no-decision in Philly on Aug. 5, 2023, allowing six earned runs over five innings, but Sanchez wasn’t near the pitcher he is now back then. One Royals hitter does have good career splits off him in Lane Thomas, who is 6-for-12 with two doubles, but he’s having a bad year.
So are the Royals overall, sitting last in the AL Central and having dropped eight of 10 – they did win 5-2 Sunday to snap a four-game skid. I’m not sure that manager Matt Quatraro makes it through the season. The last time I saw a sportsbook post next MLB manager fired odds, he was tjhe -130 leader. Kansas City currently has three lineup regulars on the injured list. All-Star shortstop Bobby Witt (.290, 12 HR, 36 RBI, 30 SB) is having another fine year and is +500 to win AL MVP.
Lefty Noah Cameron (4-6, 4.95) starts on the mound. He has been obliterated in back-to-back starts by the Rays to see his season ERA climb from 4.20. The only pitcher who has been a bigger money loser than Cameron (minus-$844) has been Chris Paddack (minus-900), who is no longer even in the majors after being released by a couple of teams.
Cameron has struggled at home with a 5.44 ERA, although he is 3-2 at Kauffman Stadium. His lone start vs. the Phillies came in his 2025 rookie season when Cameron won at Citizens Bank Park, allowing two runs over seven. JT Realmuto and Schwarber both hit solo homers off him in the first inning but the Royals rallied. Cameron has given up 10 dingers this year and Schwarber, the big-league leader with 30 home runs, is +353 to go yard today. That’s a pretty fair number.
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Weather shouldn’t be a major factor as while it will be 85 degrees or so at first pitch, winds are apparently blowing in a bit. Just such an apparent pitching mismatch. Almost incredibly, the Phillies have won 14 of their last 16 one-run games. The model has Philadelphia winning 4.6-3.7.
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