Monday, July 20 features a full 15-game slate in MLB, so fans who want to wager on the best bet to a hit a home run today have hundreds of choices on MLB player props. Home run props are massively popular in MLB betting, and with potential playoff previews Monday like Dodgers vs. Phillies and White Sox vs. Rangers, there are tons of players to look at when you’re deciding on your home run props wagers. SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca is here to help, and the expert has pored over all of Monday’s odds to find his best bets to hit (at least) one out of the yard.
Magliocca, also known as “Amags,” is a hugely profitable MLB handicapper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.
Best home run picks for Monday
Curtis Mead (+360)
Kyle Freeland has allowed 16 home runs to right-handed batters in 65 innings this year. He has allowed 17 walks to righties in that same time frame. He’s been barreled up 12% of the time and hit hard at nearly a 60% clip by right-handers, and that plays perfectly into Curtis Mead’s hands.
The Nationals slugger has crushed left-handed pitchers, with seven of his 17 home runs this season coming against southpaws in just over 100 at-bats, giving him a .521 slugging percentage. He has feasted on fastballs, and Freeland leads with his four-seam fastball against righties, while throwing the cutter more than 20% of the time. That’s almost half the time that a right-handed hitter is seeing a fastball or a variation. Neither pitch has been effective, yielding a .401 and .350 expected wOBA, respectively.
The expected stats for Freeland’s pitch mix against righties is horrendous, and his only chance of getting Mead out here is leaning into the breaking stuff. We get 100-degree weather and the highest altitude of any ballpark, plus a good platoon advantage and a +360 price. Mead will be hitting near the top of the order on the away team. This is set it and forget it territory, in my opinion.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+450) and Manny Machado (+450)
Is Tatis finally back? He has hit a home run in back-to-back games, and it looks like he could have his power stroke back. Now in Atlanta as the away team and with a spot near or at the top of the order, Tatis should have plenty of chances to go deep tonight.
For right-handed batters, this ballpark actually plays rather neutral or even slightly depressing to power numbers. I don’t care, as Bryce Elder allowed three homers in his last start and seven across 26 innings in June. He’s been beaten up by righties, who are hitting nearly .300 against him, and six of his 15 home runs allowed have come against righties in just 34 innings of work. We still get temperatures in the 80’s here, with humidity rising as the game goes on, putting Tatis in a good situation to defy some of his season-long numbers and get a homer off a right-hander here. If for some reason he faces a lefty out of the bullpen, that would be huge as well since he’s been far better for power off lefties this year.
On the other side of that coin is Machado, who’s racked up 15 of his 19 home runs against right-handed pitching this year. He had three home runs in the 11 games in July before the break but hasn’t hit one yet since returning. I like him to find the power stroke again here, against a pitcher he has hit hard in a small sample size but hasn’t had much to show for it.
Esmerlyn Valdez (+310)
Valdez has 12 home runs in 105 at-bats so far this year in MLB action; I almost thought I was reading those numbers incorrectly at first. His stats are eye-popping, and half of his home runs have come against left-handed pitcher. He has an OPS above 1.500 and a slugging percentage over 1.000 against them, though neither of those figures will stay that high. Still, he’s crushing lefties right now, and pretty much anyone for that matter. He has racked up 10 total bases in the three games since returning from the All-Star break, with two home runs in there.
He strikes out a ton as well but far less against lefties, and Ryan Weathers has been weirdly worse against left-handed batters. I still like this spot for Valdez with how hot he’s been lately. We get hot weather in a good hitters ballpark, and a batter on the away team who should be in the tophalf of the batting order, all of which play to our advantage.
Additionally, the Yankees bullpen was worked a ton Sunday, so they are likely to be missing at least a couple of their normal high-leverage guys, along with closer David Bednar.
