Welcome to the 2026 NFL offseason. If your favorite team needs a quarterback, I have some bad news.

Because many football fans are just now turning their eyes to the offseason, here’s a quick overview. The 2026 NFL draft class isn’t particularly strong overall, and it is extremely thin at quarterback. After presumed first selection Fernando Mendoza (Heisman winner, national champion at Indiana and Raiders QB in a little under three months), the best options are Alabama’s Ty Simpson and … probably LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier? This class might play out like 2022, when only one quarterback went in Round 1 (Kenny Pickett, No. 20) and only four went in the first two days.

There are some names available in the veteran quarterback market, but those names aren’t very exciting. While last offseason included free agent quarterbacks such as (now-Super Bowl champion) Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones and Aaron Rodgers, this offseason’s pool includes … well, Daniel Jones (off an Achilles injury) and Aaron Rodgers (one year older). Because Jones and Rodgers are both strongly suspected to stay with their current teams, the biggest contract might fall to Packers backup and quality spot starter Malik Willis. Or could the Falcons’ Kirk Cousins get one more solid contract after Atlanta releases him before the new league year begins March 11?

If the draft and the free agent market are thin, what is a quarterback-needy team to do? Win in the margins. While this isn’t the offseason for stacking quarterbacks on a big board or pick-your-poison free agent targets, the smart teams with financial flexibility will still have the ability to attack the veteran quarterback trade market. And two names stand out above the rest: Arizona’s Kyler Murray and Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa. (San Francisco backup Mac Jones reportedly will not be traded this offseason.)

When Murray and Tagovailoa are the offseason’s best options, it isn’t a great QB offseason. But both are workable under the right conditions, and below them, there are plenty of veteran journeymen or low-risk gambles teams will consider at the position. Quarterback movement is inevitable, so let’s look at all of the candidates for changing teams, as well as the teams in the market for their services.

Jump to:
Murray | Tagovailoa
Next tier | Sleepers
Teams looking for QBs

In the past 11 drafts, a quarterback has been selected with the first pick nine times. The three drafted longest ago (2015 Jameis Winston, 2016 Jared Goff and 2018 Baker Mayfield) are with new teams. The ensuing six remain on the teams that drafted them. Murray, drafted in 2019, is the longest tenured of those six … for now.

As ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported last week, the Cardinals are actively seeking a trade partner for Murray’s deal. It makes sense. Cutting Murray outright would incur a dead cap hit north of $54.7 million. It wouldn’t be the biggest dead cap hit ever — when Russell Wilson was released by the Broncos in 2024, he left behind a whopping $85 million in dead money. But it would be the second biggest.

By trading Murray, the Cardinals could save on dead money and get draft capital in return. Assuming Murray is traded the moment the new league year begins, the Cardinals would take on only the $17 million in cap already due Murray from prorated signing and option bonuses. Relative to his expected 2026 cap hit of over $52 million, they’d save around $35 million in cap space — a huge boon.

But the remaining contract is prohibitive in trade negotiations. If Murray’s deal is moved as is, he would have three years and about $125 million left on it — an average of $41.6 million per year, just above Matthew Stafford for 16th among all quarterbacks. Of that $125 million, a whopping $60 million would be guaranteed, a huge amount for a deal acquired via trade. This is one of the reasons why quarterback megacontracts aren’t often traded. Because of roster bonus timing and salary guarantee kickers deep into the fourth or fifth years of the deal, the acquiring team gets stuck not just with big remaining contract years but also with guaranteed money it can’t easily release or restructure.

Murray’s $22.8 million base salary for the 2026 season is already guaranteed, and another $17 million in roster bonuses is guaranteed by whatever team rosters him — the Cardinals or an acquiring team — on the fifth day of the 2026 league year. As such, Murray would hit the cap for over $40 million in Year 1 and is due another $19.5 million guaranteed in Year 2. This is not a small commitment.

If Murray is considered a veteran dart throw who might steer a listless franchise into a rookie quarterback, then he’s very expensive to add as bridge option. Daniel Jones’ one-year deal with the Colts cost $14 million last season, and he did not cost them any draft capital. Jones is just a few months older than Murray, and from 2019 to 2024 (in other words, excluding Jones’ stellar 2025 season), he was not a significantly worse quarterback than Murray by catch-all metrics. Murray is definitely a more talented player than Jones, but if Jones’ deal is a good proxy for how the league wants to compensate bridge quarterbacks, it’s tough to see the Cardinals dealing Murray without altering his deal.

Unlike many quarterback reclamation projects, Murray did not stumble out of the gates with his first team then bounce around looking for a new home. He won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2019 and made Pro Bowls in 2020 and 2021. He was a great fit in Kliff Kingsbury’s spread-and-shred passing attack and a prolific scrambler, and the certainty of a contract extension was clouded only by a 2022 ACL tear. But he got that extension, and among all of the successful QB reclamation projects over the past several years (including Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, etc.), Jones is the only other one to get a second contract with his original team. (And that original team, the Giants, released Jones less than two years later.)

Post-ACL tear and outside of Kingsbury’s offense, Murray hasn’t been the same quarterback. He returned late in the 2023 season, his first under new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing. The Cardinals employed a run-heavy offense but never got the deep play-action shot active with Murray under center. On throws of at least 10 air yards from 2023 to 2025, Murray was 26th in completion percentage, 28th in off-target rate and dead last in EPA per dropback (among 34 quarterbacks). The numbers are all as bad or worse on throws of 20-plus air yards.

This split is a serious departure from where Murray was on similar throws under Kingsbury, and it speaks to the disconnect between Petzing and Murray, as well as the Cardinals’ Marvin Harrison Jr.-sized failure to find a solid downfield target.

Murray is currently recovering from a foot injury of unclear severity, and the Cardinals likely used that injury to keep him on the bench for the entire regular season. Could he have come back? If so, when? And how would he have looked? We have no idea, which makes his offseason even more uncertain.

A foot injury can linger, and Murray’s mobility is integral to his game, so acquiring teams must beware. But there is reason to be quite confident that Murray still has some juice as a quality starter in a shotgun, spread offense. As Jones and Darnold showed us this past season, the 16th-best quarterback in football can captain league-leading offenses if everything around them is right. Murray needs to play with more team speed than the Cardinals had and see more RPOs and screens to maximize his quick release and underneath accuracy. As long as his foot is healthy and his quickness remains, he’d also benefit from an offense that more intentionally folds him into the running game.

Were Murray the only legitimate starter available for trade, the Cardinals would have a leveraged position to force an acquiring team to take on as much money as possible. But Murray is not the only big name available. As such, it’s unlikely he gets dealt before the fifth day of the league year, meaning his contract will need to be adjusted to make it more palatable for an acquiring team. Interestingly, when Schefter reported on the trade availability of Murray and fellow veteran Tagovailoa, he reported that the Dolphins were willing to swallow a portion of Tagovailoa’s deal to facilitate a trade. He reported no such thing about Murray.

If Murray’s contract is traded in its current form, I think the return would be almost nominal — a Day 3 pick. For acquiring teams with plenty of cap space and a long-term rebuild ahead (think teams such as the Jets), keeping the draft capital and spending the money on Murray might be preferable. But would the Cardinals endure the optics of getting just a fourth-round pick for Murray to save the money? I’d wager they’re more likely to take on some dead cap in order to improve the draft compensation they get in return, which would put other teams in play.

From 2022 to 2023, Tagovailoa was third in the league in EPA per dropback behind only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Tagovailoa was third in dropback success rate, behind only Mahomes and Allen. And he was first in explosive pass rate.

Much like Murray, Tagovailoa has been most successful under one playcaller. After a couple of shaky years under coach Brian Flores and a carousel of offensive coordinators, Tagovailoa fell into the Mike McDaniel offense, which subsequently took the league by storm. With his shotgun, play-action system that utilized sudden motion at the snap, McDaniel opened intermediate passing windows more easily than even Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay had before him. From 2022 to 2023, Tagovailoa led the league with 39.5% of his throws going at least 10 yards downfield and had the second-fastest time to throw (2.54 seconds) behind only Tom Brady. That’s how an offense breaks the league.

Tagovailoa has a hyper-specific and fragile skill set, though. A tremendous RPO passer because of his fast release, willingness to challenge coverages with anticipation and accuracy within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage, Tagovailoa was perfectly equipped to lead the McDaniel offense. He trusted McDaniel exhaustively and, at times, to his detriment, throwing to spots on the field almost independent of safety rotation. More than any other quarterback we had seen in the Shanahan system, Tagovailoa was willing to make it work.

When McDaniel was on the cutting edge ahead of opposing defensive coordinators, the system sang. But because Tagovailoa struggles with escaping the pocket, throws on the move and adjusting beyond his first read, any defensive coordinator who could get the jump on McDaniel never had to fear Tagovailoa punishing the opponent in the scramble drill. After coaches such as Brandon Staley (2022) and Steve Spagnuolo (2023) had some success against the system, their approaches proliferated. As such, we can say with confidence that Tagovailoa is a scheme-dependent quarterback.

For a bridge QB, this isn’t terrible news. The way to maximize Tagovailoa is very clear. Though it’s unlikely he gets such an enormous McDaniel-esque bump to the point where he’s among the league leaders in quarterback metrics in 2026 and beyond, a new spin on a spread, RPO-heavy offense would provide passable play. Tagovailoa is the ideal bridge quarterback, in that you can win with him, but he won’t hold off a promising rookie passer for long. Think about the tough decision the Vikings faced when they had to decide if they should keep Sam Darnold or commit to J.J. McCarthy. It’s unlikely Tagovailoa forces such a debate.

He is in the midst of a lucrative contract extension, and the financials behind trading his deal would be tough. Cutting Tagovailoa would create $99 million in dead cap — a record-setting figure. Even with a post-June 1 designation, Tagovailoa would still batter the Dolphins’ salary cap with a $67 million dead cap figure in 2026 alone, beating Wilson’s single-year record of $53 million cleanly. Releasing Tagovailoa would be the largest admission of financial error in NFL history.

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It also might be inevitable. Any contract this brutal to terminate is similarly brutal to trade. An acquiring team would take on a three-year deal with a $39 million base salary in 2026 (fully guaranteed) and be saddled with another $15 million option bonus if Tagovailoa is traded before the third day of the 2026 league year. Because Schefter reported that the Dolphins are willing to swallow some of Tagovailoa’s contract to get a trade done, it’s easy to infer that they’d take on the $15 million bonus. Yes, it would increase their 2026 dead cap hit after the trade to over $60 million, which would set the single-season record. But unlike in a post-June 1 release, they wouldn’t have to take on any more dead cap in 2027.

I’d wager that the Dolphins don’t just take on Tagovailoa’s $15 million but also some more of the 2026 salary to make his contract more of a one-year deal in the $30 million range (with some team options behind). This would make Tagovailoa’s compensation commensurate with the deal Darnold signed with Seattle, as a scheme-dependent quarterback with the right tool kit to manage an elite offense for the correct coaching staff.

Tagovailoa is extremely unlikely to return much of anything in a trade package. While Murray could easily get into the range of a Day 2 pick, I would be surprised if Tagovailoa is traded for anything better than a Round 4 selection. It would require the Dolphins taking on even more salary to get anything in trade return for their former franchise passer, and they can take on only so much because they must also release Tyreek Hill this offseason.

The next tier

Though Tagovailoa and Murray are the two big-name quarterbacks, smart teams will investigate secondary options. Willis is the splashy young name. The 26-year-old has only six career starts — three with the Titans and three with the Packers — during his four-year career. All six were spot starts behind an injured QB1, and his reps with the Titans were brutal. Willis had no touchdowns and three interceptions, completed just 50% of his passes, was sacked 10 times and averaged 4.5 yards per attempt in Tennessee. He had some value as a rusher, with 27 carries for 123 yards and a score, but not nearly enough to move the needle.

In Green Bay, Willis showed some of the talent that got him drafted in Round 3 in 2022. In 11 games, Willis has 42 carries for 261 yards and three scores. That 6.2 yards-per-rush mark would be fourth behind Murray, Baker Mayfield and Spencer Rattler over the past two seasons among passers with 100-plus dropbacks. Willis’ 13% scramble rate and 11.8% explosive run rate would lead all QBs. This guy is a legitimate threat with the ball.

But it’s the improvement as a passer that really stands out. Over those two seasons, Willis has gone 70-of-89 (79% completion rate) for 972 yards, and that 10.9 yards per attempt ranks miles ahead of second place (Lamar Jackson at 8.7). His 9.2 yards per dropback is also miles ahead of second place (Jackson at 7.7). And his 86.3 total QBR is miles ahead of second place (Jackson at 69.9).

Though Willis’ production has come against some soft passing defenses, such as the Bears and Ravens, the film is undeniable. Willis is throwing accurate passes down the field in rhythm. He can throw inside of structure to the correct option, and he can make quality throws outside of structure, too. The sack rate is worrying — 9.6%, one of the league’s highest over the past two years. But that places him somewhere on the Justin Fields–Jayden Daniels continuum of playmaking, and that’s not a bad place to be.

Watching Malik Willis. Bears bust the coverage so Christian Watson is wide open but Willis doesn’t see it and hits the harder throw to Musgrave instead.

Great velocity on this ball. pic.twitter.com/gdvJC1noiD

— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) February 10, 2026

Willis is no longer a sleeper signing. His services will be hotly sought after by teams looking for a still-young gamble at a franchise quarterback. But just how hotly? It’s hard to find a historical proxy for “highly valued free agent with six career starts at quarterback.”

One of the few solid comparisons we can use is Jimmy Garoppolo. Though Garoppolo could not be more stylistically opposite from Willis, he had only seven starts in his first four seasons as a pro — including two before the 49ers traded a second-round pick to acquire him from the Patriots after his third season. Garoppolo had five starts for the 49ers in 2017, went 5-0 as a starter with solid stats and got a five-year deal worth $137.5 million — the largest contract in NFL history at the time.

OK, so maybe not the best proxy.

Brock Osweiler can also help us out. Drafted in the second round in 2012, Osweiler didn’t start a game until his fourth year with the Broncos, as a little-known quarterback named Peyton Manning turned out to be much healthier than Denver could have dreamed. Osweiler parlayed his seven starts (5-2, pretty average stats) into a four-year, $72 million deal with the Texans in 2016 — a substantial contract at the time, and one that Houston traded to the Browns with significant draft capital the next offseason after it became clear Osweiler wasn’t a starting-caliber quarterback.

Osweiler got $18 million per year, which was about 8.6% of the 2016 salary cap. A decade later, with a salary cap projection just over $300 million, a similar deal would cost $26 million per year. This feels like the correct value for Willis. Fields made $20 million per year on his two-year contract with the Jets, and Mayfield is making $33 million per year in Tampa Bay. That $13 million difference between the two feels like the sweet spot for Willis.

The other significant (soon-to-be) free agent is Cousins, whom the Falcons will reportedly release this offseason. He will turn 38 before the 2026 season kicks off and is now more than two years removed from an Achilles injury, so we can pretty easily tie his value to that of Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers was 41 and two years removed from an Achilles tear when he signed his one-year, $13.6 million deal with the Steelers. Much like Rodgers, who had some flashes of quality ball in the back half of the 2024 season with the Jets before he hit free agency, Cousins looked decent stepping in during the back half of the 2025 season with the Falcons once Michael Penix Jr. went down for the year.

Cousins is an evident stopgap quarterback — a one-year solution for a team that needs passable play for short-term relief. While Murray, Tagovailoa and Willis could all play their way into multiyear futures with new teams, Cousins is reportedly mulling retirement and television as an option in this free agent period. If the marriage isn’t right for one last go, he might forgo signing with a team entirely. But of the super-veteran options (Cousins, Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco and Garoppolo), he is comfortably the most talented remaining passer.

I’d make it 65-35 that he ends up signing a one-year deal somewhere.

The super deep indie cuts

With a largely unsatisfying draft class waiting in the wings, there almost certainly will be movement among No. 2 QBs as teams cycle through young passers in hope of striking gold on a Hail Mary heave. Here are a few names to watch for those teams that miss out on Malik Willis, Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray.

• Will Levis, Tennessee Titans: The 2023 second-round pick lost his job to Cam Ward the moment the Titans landed the first pick in 2024. In July, Levis underwent season-ending shoulder surgery, and he is now approaching the final year of his rookie deal. A disasterclass artist so prolific he produced multiple screenshot-worthy reactions to his own turnovers, Levis is remembered worse than he actually played. He has prototypical size and good arm strength. Because the Titans’ front office and coaching staff are completely new, I’d be stunned if he isn’t traded this offseason.

• Jalen Milroe, Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks hedged their Darnold bet with a Round 3 selection on Milroe, who now starts down the path that Willis was on with Tennessee. Milroe is only QB3 in Seattle behind Darnold and Drew Lock, but Milroe started above Ty Simpson — the nominal QB2 in this draft class — at Alabama in 2024. Teams likely will compare their predraft grades on Milroe to the grades on this year’s class, and if they can get Milroe at a discount, they could try to trade for him instead of drafting an inferior prospect.

• Tanner McKee, Philadelphia Eagles: The backup QB on Howie Roseman’s roster is always in danger of being dealt. McKee typically looks strong in the preseason, and he looked acceptable in two Week 18 starts while throwing to the Eagles’ backups. He is an older prospect (will be 26 next season), but he still has a developmental arc in that he has never seen extended game action. In a world where Will Howard might be starting for the Steelers or Quinn Ewers could be in for the Dolphins, McKee deserves a camp fight somewhere.

• Davis Mills, Houston Texans: It’s hard to see the Texans trading Mills, whom they just gave a one-year, $7 million extension to continue providing effective QB2 play behind C.J. Stroud. But perhaps a strong offer could entice them to deal Mills, who is far from an exciting option at 28 years old but clearly is somewhere between the QB2 and QB1 worlds for quarterbacking quality. Note that his old offensive coordinator, Bobby Slowik, now coaches the Dolphins’ offense; Miami would need a new quarterback if it flips Tagovailoa.

• Anthony Richardson Sr., Indianapolis Colts: It was an odd year for Richardson, who reportedly was having a solid camp but could not fend off Daniel Jones for the starting QB job in Indianapolis. Jones took off like wildfire, but once he got hurt, Richardson was unavailable given a freak orbital fracture. Richardson is a huge sleeper now — in that the Colts are likely set at QB2 with Riley Leonard behind Jones — and his youth and physical tool kit merit further opportunities and a fresh start on another team.

• Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints: This is the guy I’d really be pursuing if I were in desperate need. Rattler was a totally acceptable young starter during his eight games of action before Tyler Shough took the reins in New Orleans. And while Shough elevated the offense some, he enjoyed a much more successful defense than Rattler got in his starts. Rattler has great physical tools for playmaking, but he also showed he could be a more cautious and methodical player last season. I’d deal a Day 3 pick for him right now if I were looking for camp competition.

• Derek Carr, retired: Apparently Carr would maybe come back for the right team? This does not interest me at all. Remember, Carr is still under contract with the Saints, so he isn’t free if he unretires. He has to return to New Orleans, waive his no-trade clause then get dealt. (Presumably not for much, as the Saints don’t want to keep his contract on the books, but still.) Carr will be 35 next month, so he hasn’t aged out of the league just yet, but it’s difficult to be enthusiastic about his ceiling outside of the Klint Kubiak offense.

• Garrett Nussmeier, LSU: If Fernando Mendoza is the obvious first pick and Simpson is the next man off the board, then the rest of the field is scrambling for a QB3 option. I’d have Nussmeier above players such as Carson Beck (Georgia) and Cade Klubnik (Clemson), as Nussmeier had exciting 2024 film before a 2025 oblique injury robbed him of his throwing power. The size is suboptimal, but the arm talent is there. Nussmeier feels like a pick somewhere in the 70s.

The teams that might need one of these passers …

As I see it, there are 10 teams in clear need of an additional quarterback this offseason. That count does not include Las Vegas, which will draft Fernando Mendoza with the first pick and start a new era of prolific Raiders football (hopefully). Included in those 10 teams are the Cardinals and the Dolphins, who — independent of exactly how they move on from their current passers — will at least look for competition in 2026.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta can defensibly enter 2026 with Penix under close scrutiny as a third-year starter. But he’s coming off a late-season ACL tear, so the Falcons will need someone who can start in September if he’s not ready. More likely, the Falcons open up the starting job in a camp competition between Penix and another outside option.

Funnily enough, Cousins would be a great fit in Atlanta. He has played for new coach Kevin Stefanski successfully in the past (with Minnesota) and obviously has an existing rapport with the Falcons’ pass catchers. Is the blood in Atlanta still bad now that the front office and coaching staff have been replaced?

Atlanta likely won’t compete hard for Willis’ services in free agency, but I could easily see that front office trading for one of the backups on rookie contracts who are collecting dust on another team’s bench.

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Indianapolis Colts

Assuming the Colts sign Daniel Jones, I could still see them looking for a veteran option to start over Riley Leonard while Jones slowly comes back from the Achilles injury. (No, not Philip Rivers. That’s a little too veteran.) This seems like the right team for Marcus Mariota or Joe Flacco.

If the Colts do not re-sign Jones, they’ll have perhaps the biggest QB need on the market. But they will … right?

New York Jets

I don’t think it would be egregious for the Jets to enter next season with a QB room of Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor and (insert middle-round rookie here). Fields was frustratingly cautious for the Jets last season, but most of the free agent options aren’t much better than him or Taylor.

The Jets do have plenty of money to acquire either Tua Tagovailoa or Kyler Murray. Given the Jets’ intradivisional familiarity with Tagovailoa’s game, I’d be surprised if they go that direction (though, with Frank Reich calling the offense, the RPO game would work well). Murray seems like a more realistic option. GM Darren Mougey is a patient team manager, but he was also present for the Russell Wilson fiasco in Denver, and he knows how badly the Cardinals want to get out of the Murray contract. The Jets have a ton of first-round picks incoming and don’t need to hold on to their third- or fourth-rounders as preciously as other teams.

If I had to guess where Murray ends up next season, this would be my spot.

Pittsburgh Steelers

If the Steelers re-sign Aaron Rodgers to another one-year deal, God bless ’em. Rodgers’ lack of mobility and diminishing arm talent is an enormous limiting factor on their offense. Only two quarterbacks (Fields and Brady Cook) threw shorter passes than Rodgers in 2025, and Rodgers offered the Steelers nothing on extended plays: 39th of 45 quarterbacks by success rate on extended dropbacks. Hopefully a Rodgers return would come with an accompanying trade for a young passer who can compete in camp — I think Rattler would learn a ton from Rodgers, in that Rattler has a style of play reminiscent of prime Rodgers — but I’m not holding my breath on that.

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Cleveland Browns

The Browns should aggressively pursue and sign Willis in free agency. Why not? Already leveraged aggressively against future cap years, the Browns will start to make up financial ground only once they have a quarterback on a good deal. If they trade for Will Levis or Anthony Richardson, with one year remaining on their respective contracts, they’ll be negotiating from a weaker position should either player actually hit.

They should give Willis $30 million per year now, backload it and let him ride as their developmental starter for the next few seasons. His tools are so remarkably beyond those of Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, and he has a style of play similar to Lamar Jackson, with whom Todd Monken just worked. This is a good marriage.

Miami Dolphins

Miami should wait on making any big moves at quarterback until it has swallowed its 2026 cap lumps. Jeff Hafley is a defensive head coach, and the Dolphins’ roster construction will likely mirror that of Seattle’s under Mike Macdonald: Build an elite defense, then cycle through midtier quarterbacks trying to strike gold. Miami should not be trading any picks, as it needs rookie-contract, rosterable players to fill out its depth chart.

I like the Dolphins as a Kirk Cousins team, but if he prefers to return to Minnesota, it’s tough to find any ideal options. Malik Willis has the coaching familiarity, but the Dolphins will get priced out. Bobby Slowik coached Davis Mills in Houston, but again, I don’t like trading picks given the Dolphins’ current cap position. It really might be a Quinn Ewers year in Miami.

Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota will absolutely bring in competition for J.J. McCarthy, as it reportedly tried to do last season with Rodgers. Cousins is the obvious choice because he has scheme familiarity from his time in Minnesota as coach Kevin O’Connell’s starter. But O’Connell is a big believer in quarterback development, and I would not be surprised if he wants to go for a younger player to challenge McCarthy’s seat not just in 2026 but also beyond. Every toolsy young passer who can operate from the pocket (Tanner McKee, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, etc.) is on my radar for a surprise Vikings trade.

(It will probably just be Cousins, though, let’s be honest.)

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Arizona Cardinals

The good news for the Cardinals is that 2025 spot starter Jacoby Brissett has one year left on his deal and is a totally palatable bridge quarterback. With new head coach Mike LaFleur stepping in with the Sean McVay system, I would not be surprised to see Rams free agent Jimmy Garoppolo also make his way to Arizona as a potential spot starter instead of Brissett. The Cardinals must invest in some youth at quarterback, and I’d wager they’re in the Malik Willis market accordingly.

The incoming changes to the Cardinals’ offensive line and running back room do some damage to the quality of their developmental bedrock. But despite Arizona’s poor performance this season, a young passer could do a lot worse than Michael Wilson, Trey McBride and whatever can be gleaned from Marvin Harrison Jr. The Cardinals seem like the right team for a Ty Simpson pick in the second round.

Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford won the MVP award and confirmed his return for another season in 2026, but I don’t trust his back at all — even and especially after the iron man season he just had. The Rams’ only youth at quarterback is No. 3 QB Stetson Bennett IV, and as such, they should strongly pursue young backups on the trade market this offseason. Will Levis is a great fit, as is Tanner McKee. But I’d wager McVay wants more playmaking at the position, so watch out for Anthony Richardson and Spencer Rattler as well.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs need a spot starter! Patrick Mahomes is rehabbing an ACL/LCL tear suffered Dec. 14 with the hope of playing in Week 1, but the Chiefs will likely be uber-cautious with their franchise star. No. 2 QB is not a secure spot either, as Gardner Minshew is a rising free agent. The Chiefs might simply return Minshew and hope to get Mahomes back by Week 5, but they’re a good candidate for a veteran free agent addition, as well.

Spring is supposed to be the time of maximum optimism in baseball. Every team still theoretically has a chance to win a title right now; every player still theoretically has a chance to have the best season of their career. Everyone is supposed to be in the “best shape of my life,” everyone is working on new pitches or refining their skill set to be the best version of themselves.

And that optimism tends to last about as long as it takes for players to get through their entrance physicals and for their managers to start talking to the media. And then reality sets in and we get the inevitable bad news. Tuesday saw the first batch of pitchers and catchers reporting to training camp, and with it, our first batch of news that will impact the Fantasy Baseball landscape this draft season. 

Here’s the biggest news you need to know from around the league Tuesday, starting with one significant injury to a top-20 projected SP:

Spencer Schwellenbach to start the season on the 60-day IL

Schwellenbach seems to have pushed his elbow to its limit in 2025, pushing his velocity ever higher in pursuit of becoming an ace. And he sure looked like one when he was on the mound. But now it looks like we won’t see him back on the mound for at least the first few months of the 2026 season – and potentially a lot longer than that:

Schwellenbach dealt with a fractured elbow last season as he pushed is velocity ever higher following his breakout 2024 campaign, and he apparently began feeling discomfort in his right elbow a few weeks ago while preparing for the season. That has manifested in inflammation in his elbow, and while his UCL is not believed to be damaged as a result, the fact that we are already, in early February, talking about him going on the 60-day IL to open the season suggests this is a serious concern.

Because, even in a best-case scenario right now, you’re talking about three and a half months before Schwellenbach is able to return to action, assuming he misses the minimum time after going on the IL. Now, perhaps in a best-case scenario, he could still throw roughly two-thirds of a season; for a guy with a 3.23 ERA and 1.01 career WHIP in the majors, two-thirds of a season would still be plenty valuable.

But I don’t think it makes sense to think in terms of best-case scenarios here, given Schwellenbach’s history. Schwellenbach was used as a shortstop and a reliever during his college career, only transitioning to a full-time starting role after being drafted. But, it’s worth noting that came after he had Tommy John surgery shortly after signing with the Braves. He came back from the injury in 2023, forced his way all the way to the majors in 2024, and tossed nearly 180 excellent innings along the way. In 2025, he made it through 17 starts and 110.2 innings before breaking down, and now he’s entering 2026 with another elbow issue.

Which is to say, we’ve seen exactly one season from Schwellenbach where he has shown he can handle the rigors of being a starting pitcher. That doesn’t mean he can’t be one moving forward, but I do think it means we should err on the side of pessimism as he works his way back, especially when we’re dealing with as much uncertainty as we are regarding a potential timetable. 

Maybe Schwellenbach comes back in late May and dominates the rest of the way. That might be on the table. But that seems like the least likely outcome, and there would obviously still be significant injury risk to account for here even if it did happen. 

But it feels a lot more likely that we’re starting at a lost season for Schwellenbach. He suffered a fractured elbow while pitching last season, presumably spent the offseason rehabbing, and then before he’s even asked to throw a pitch in a competitive setting, he already suffered a setback? Or, potentially, a brand new injury? One that will cost him at least the first two months of the season, and may ultimately require surgery? It doesn’t seem like a situation you want to bet on working out for you, unfortunately.

Which is to say, I’m pretty much out on Schwellenbach entirely in drafts. In leagues with a lot of IL spots, maybe you could justify a very late-round pick to stash Schwellenbach, but I’m moving him outside of the top-100 in my pitcher rankings and outside of the top-300 in the overall after this, taking him firmly off the board in 12-team leagues. 

I hope my pessimism is proven wrong. Schwellenbach looked like one of the best pitchers in the game last season, and the Braves rotation really needs him to be a contributor if they want to have any chance of returning to contention. But I just don’t see enough reason to be optimistic about Schwellenbach at this point. 

Francisco Lindor might need surgery

This one is less severe, with Mets president David Stearns keeping an Opening Day return on the table even if Lindor does end up needing surgery to repair a stress fracture in the hamate bone in his left hand:

But I do think there needs to be at least a minor downgrade for Lindor, even if that Opening Day timeline comes to fruition. Now, to be clear, it’s not necessarily because this specific injury is likely to be a huge issue for Lindor. Hamate bone injuries are less concerning than something like a thumb or wrist fracture. They tend to be more straightforward procedures and recovery processes, and most players tend to return from a hamate bone procedure at more or less the same level as before. 

On its own, this would be mildly concerning, but not much more than that. But this comes on the heels of Lindor undergoing surgery earlier in the offseason to remove bone spurs in his elbow. That procedure also isn’t terribly concerning on its own merits, but we’re now looking at a 32-year-old potentially coming off two separate offseason surgeries, the most recent of which would almost certainly cost him most of Spring Training as he recovers.

Hamate bone surgery typically costs 6-8 weeks, and even the lower end of that timetable would put Lindor out of action through the end of spring games. Maybe he’ll be able to do enough side work to get up to speed quickly enough to be ready for Opening Day, as Stearns suggests, but that is by no means guaranteed. 

And there’s also no guarantee there won’t be any kind of lingering issues as a result. Even if the hamate bone surgery and elbow surgeries don’t become lingering issues for Lindor, missing most or all of Spring Training always injects added risk into a player’s profile. Lindor has mostly avoided any obvious signs of aging, but it might be asking too much for him to keep holding steady coming off this kind of offseason. 

Which is not to say we need to just remove Lindor from our draft boards. But it definitely takes him out of first-round consideration for me. For now, I’m dropping Lindor to the 2-3 round turn. I’m keeping him ahead of Zach Neto and Mookie Betts at that price range for now, but it wouldn’t take much for me to lower Lindor more to the third or fourth round range if the timetable starts to put Opening Day at risk. This is one to watch in the coming days. 

Anthony Santander will have shoulder surgery; Shane Bieber will be slow-played in spring

The Bieber detail isn’t really anything new – he dealt with forearm fatigue during the postseason and as far back as December the Blue Jays were talking about the possibility of limiting him this spring. But this confirms it, and while he may still end up being ready for Opening Day, this is a pretty big red flag for a guy who had a pretty rocky rehab process after Tommy John surgery and didn’t even make it through 60 innings last season without this issue. Bieber is still worth a late-round dart throw, but I don’t think you can view him as much more than that. 

Santander was even cheaper prior to this news, but this now takes him entirely out of the draftable discussion. He  is going to have surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder, the issue that largely derailed his 2025 season. He’ll be out 5-6 months, so a first-half return seems unlikely here. And, whenever he does come back, Santander will be dealing with the aftereffects of that shoulder surgery, so expectations should be very low.

It’s a bummer, because he was such a reliable source of power prior to this injury and looked like he might be a nice late-round flier as a bounce-back candidate. All that’s off the table now.