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Real Madrid vs. Benfica live stream: Where to watch Champions League online

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The second year pf the new format of the UEFA Champions League, brought plenty of chaos on the final day of the league phase as 18 matches kicked off at the same time. Storylines can get muddled along the way during a jam-packed period of action but one stood out above the rest, fully embodying the drama of the day.

Real Madrid started the day well-positioned to finish in the top eight and book a direct spot in the round of 16, a favorable match against a Benfica team who were poised for elimination awaiting them. The script fully flipped, though — Benfica came out with an improbable 4-2 win, rounded out by a red card for Real Madrid’s Raul Asencio and the final goal of the game coming from shot-stopper Anatoliy Trubin. Benfica, coached by ex-Madrid boss Jose Mourinho, snuck their way into the knockout phase playoffs while Los Blancos were doomed to play another two games in the hopes of booking a spot in the last 16.

It makes for an unusual but perfect set-up for a rematch three weeks later, a painful reward for Benfica despite their hard work and a golden opportunity for Real Madrid to fully put that Matchday 8 defeat behind them.

How to watch Benfica vs. Real Madrid, odds

  • Date: Tuesday, Feb. 16 | Time: 3 p.m. ET
  • Location: Estadio da Luz — Lisbon, Portugal
  • Live stream: Paramount+
  • Odds: Benfica +280; Draw +290; Real Madrid -115

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“They are wounded,” Mourinho said in his pre-match remarks on Monday, “and a wounded king is dangerous. We will play the first leg with our heads, with ambition and confidence. We know what we did to the kings of the Champions League … Real Madrid is Real Madrid, with history, knowledge, ambition. The only comparable thing is that we are two giants. Beyond that, there is nothing else. But football has this power and we can win.”

The circumstances could see Mourinho change his approach from the teams’ last meeting, too. Benfica were more forward-thinking than usual in their win over Los Blancos, in large part because they simply needed to score to even have a shot at advancing, but the calculus is usually different over a two-legged tie. A team can attempt to grind the opponent down in an attempt to lock their attack out, something Mourinho teams have done time and time again. Benfica’s attack-focused approach on Matchday 8 was atypical to their Champions League experiences since Mourinho took over after a Matchday 1 loss to Qarabag – they performed well above their average of 14.1 shots per game and 1.5 expected goals, instead taking 22 shots and generating 3.01 expected goals. Even with the 3-2 defeat to Qarabag factored in, Benfica are a solid defensive side – they have conceded just 10.1 nonpenalty expected goals against in eight games.

The question, then, is if this imperfect version of Real Madrid can find a way to break through a tough defense. Even in a season full of ups and downs, it feels hard to bet against the Spanish giants. They rank inside the Champions League’s top five for goals with 21 and expected goals with 18.99, their sheer ability to score papering over a handful of cracks. That is especially true since Xabi Alonso’s January ouster as the coach, his mission to build a more balanced Real Madrid abandoned despite the progress he made. Since Alvaro Arbeloa took charge, Los Blancos have fully switched to a strategy in which Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior share the field at the same time, kicking the can down the road on the longstanding question about the pair’s compatibility.

Both in Spain and in Europe, Real Madrid’s inherent attacking might is enough to survive their own inconsistencies and notch enough wins to keep them in the conversation for silverware. Mbappe himself is on pace for a career-best season with 39 goals across all competitions so far, while Vinicius has delivered since Arbeloa took charge with four goals and two assists in his last seven matches. Individually, the pair are a cheat code as Los Blancos continue to sort through their issues and will be enough of a challenge for Benfica’s defense over the next week and change.

The team, though, has received a boost in the return of Trent Alexander-Arnold, who notched his first start since December in Real Madrid’s 4-1 win over Real Sociedad on Saturday. He will provide some attacking balance for a team that is at times overly reliant on Mbappe, already providing a preview of what’s to come with an assist over the weekend. The England international is a uniquely creative player as a right back, though his range of passing and positional awareness means he can kickstart an attack from just about every area of the pitch.

For all their flaws, Real Madrid have a perfect opportunity to put a sizable loss behind them, even if they are still unwilling to answer the big problems that plague their squad – and their pursuit of trophies, for that matter.





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With gold medal win, Elana Meyers Taylor is the most decorated U.S. female bobsledder

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Elana Meyers Taylor won the Olympic gold medal for Team USA in women’s monobob on Monday, making her the most decorated U.S. female bobsledder out there. 

She beat out Germany’s Laura Nolte. Fellow American, Kaillie  Armbruster Humphries, who’s won gold three times, took home the bronze. 

Meyers Taylor, a 41-year-old five-time Olympian, previously won silver three times and bronze twice. She also has more medals to her name than any Black athlete in Winter Olympics history, according to Team USA. 

With Monday’s gold, she’s also tied speed skater Bonnie Blair for the most medals by a female U.S. Winter Olympian. Speed skater Apolo Anton Ohno, who earned eight medals across three Winter Olympics, holds the overall top spot for U.S. Winter Olympians.

Meyers Taylor is also now the oldest American woman to ever win gold at the Winter Games.

“I love going fast and I love being able to control this thing that should be out of control, that should be uncontrollable,” she told CBS News before the race. “It’s just so much fun to me and when you hit the curves right and when you’re gliding, it feels like being a superhero.”

Meyers Taylor also competes in two-woman bobsled. 

Last year, she took home bronze in the world championships. Overall, she’s earned 10 medals across her years competing in the world championships.

Meyers Taylor originally had hopes of competing in the Summer Olympics as a football player, but told CBS News she “had a disaster of a tryout.” Her parents, who’d seen bobsledding on TV, suggested she give it a shot. 

Husband Nic Taylor is a former Olympic bobsledder. 

A mom of two, Meyers Taylor is also an advocate for children who have disabilities. Both of her sons, Nico and Noah, are deaf and Nico also has Down Syndrome. In addition to training for the Olympics, she’s also juggled normal parenting responsibilities and learning sign language. 



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Olympic US women’s hockey beats Sweden, advances to final

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The U.S. women’s hockey team won 5-0 against Sweden in the semifinals at the Milan Cortina Olympics, putting them in line for gold as they head into the final.Cayla Barnes, Taylor Heise, Abbey Murphy, Kendall Coyne Schofield and Hayley Scamurra all scored in the game, making three goals in less than 3 minutes in the second period.The Americans continued their roll through the tournament by improving to 6-0, and outscoring their opponents by a combined 31-1. The U.S. has yet to trail or be tied after 0-0, and in position to become the third women’s team to do so over the entire tournament, joining Canada in 2006 and 2010.The U.S. also extended its shutout streak to 331 minutes, 23 seconds, going back to Czechia’s Barbora Jurickova beating Frankel on a breakaway in the second period of a tournament-opening 5-1 win.The win over Sweden sets up a seventh gold-medal showdown against Canada on Thursday. The defending Olympic champion Canadians defeated Switzerland in the day’s other semifinal game.The U.S. already beat Canada 5-0 in a preliminary round game last week. The Americans won Olympic gold in 1998 and 2018, with Canada winning the other five tournaments.Sweden will play for bronze on Thursday in an effort to medal for the third time in team history, and first since winning silver at the 2006 Turin Games after upsetting the U.S. in the semifinals.Among those in attendance was former NFL center Jason Kelce, who was shown on the scoreboard applauding the goal initially credited to Edwards. Kelce is from Edwards’ hometown of Cleveland Heights, Ohio, and he and his brother, Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, contributed to a GoFundMe drive to help pay for Edwards’ family to attend the Milan Cortina Games.Sweden enjoyed a breakthrough this year with a young, talented group that features seven players competing in the U.S. college ranks. Sweden went 4-0 to win Group B, and then upset Czechia 2-0 in the quarterfinals.Though the Swedes kept the game close through 35 minutes, the Americans eventually wore them down.The U.S. will face Canada in the final on Thursday.The Associated Press contributed to this report. PHNjcmlwdCB0eXBlPSJ0ZXh0L2phdmFzY3JpcHQiPiFmdW5jdGlvbigpeyJ1c2Ugc3RyaWN0Ijt3aW5kb3cuYWRkRXZlbnRMaXN0ZW5lcigibWVzc2FnZSIsKGZ1bmN0aW9uKGUpe2lmKHZvaWQgMCE9PWUuZGF0YVsiZGF0YXdyYXBwZXItaGVpZ2h0Il0pe3ZhciB0PWRvY3VtZW50LnF1ZXJ5U2VsZWN0b3JBbGwoImlmcmFtZSIpO2Zvcih2YXIgYSBpbiBlLmRhdGFbImRhdGF3cmFwcGVyLWhlaWdodCJdKWZvcih2YXIgcj0wO3I8dC5sZW5ndGg7cisrKXtpZih0W3JdLmNvbnRlbnRXaW5kb3c9PT1lLnNvdXJjZSl0W3JdLnN0eWxlLmhlaWdodD1lLmRhdGFbImRhdGF3cmFwcGVyLWhlaWdodCJdW2FdKyJweCJ9fX0pKX0oKTs8L3NjcmlwdD4=

The U.S. women’s hockey team won 5-0 against Sweden in the semifinals at the Milan Cortina Olympics, putting them in line for gold as they head into the final.

Cayla Barnes, Taylor Heise, Abbey Murphy, Kendall Coyne Schofield and Hayley Scamurra all scored in the game, making three goals in less than 3 minutes in the second period.

The Americans continued their roll through the tournament by improving to 6-0, and outscoring their opponents by a combined 31-1. The U.S. has yet to trail or be tied after 0-0, and in position to become the third women’s team to do so over the entire tournament, joining Canada in 2006 and 2010.

The U.S. also extended its shutout streak to 331 minutes, 23 seconds, going back to Czechia’s Barbora Jurickova beating Frankel on a breakaway in the second period of a tournament-opening 5-1 win.

The win over Sweden sets up a seventh gold-medal showdown against Canada on Thursday. The defending Olympic champion Canadians defeated Switzerland in the day’s other semifinal game.

The U.S. already beat Canada 5-0 in a preliminary round game last week. The Americans won Olympic gold in 1998 and 2018, with Canada winning the other five tournaments.

Sweden will play for bronze on Thursday in an effort to medal for the third time in team history, and first since winning silver at the 2006 Turin Games after upsetting the U.S. in the semifinals.

Among those in attendance was former NFL center Jason Kelce, who was shown on the scoreboard applauding the goal initially credited to Edwards. Kelce is from Edwards’ hometown of Cleveland Heights, Ohio, and he and his brother, Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, contributed to a GoFundMe drive to help pay for Edwards’ family to attend the Milan Cortina Games.

Sweden enjoyed a breakthrough this year with a young, talented group that features seven players competing in the U.S. college ranks. Sweden went 4-0 to win Group B, and then upset Czechia 2-0 in the quarterfinals.

Though the Swedes kept the game close through 35 minutes, the Americans eventually wore them down.

The U.S. will face either Canada in the final on Thursday.

Abbey Murphy #37 of the United States celebrates her goal with teammates during the Women's semifinal match between the United States and Sweden on day ten of the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic Games at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena on February 16, 2026, in Milan, Italy.

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Abbey Murphy #37 of the United States celebrates her goal with teammates during the Women’s semifinal match between the United States and Sweden on day ten of the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic Games at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena on February 16, 2026, in Milan, Italy.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.



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Robert Duvall, Hollywood Legend and ‘The Godfather’ Star, Dies

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Perennial Hollywood star and Academy Award winner Robert Duvall has died. According to his wife, Duvall passed away in Virginia on Sunday. He was 95 years old.

“To the world,” Duvall’s wife, Luciana Pedraza, said in a statement, ”he was an Academy Award-winning actor, a director, a storyteller. To me, he was simply everything. His passion for his craft was matched only by his deep love for characters, a great meal, and holding court. For each of his many roles, Bob gave everything to his characters and to the truth of the human spirit they represented. In doing so, he leaves something lasting and unforgettable to us all. Thank you for the years of support you showed Bob and for giving us this time and privacy to celebrate the memories he leaves behind.”

Born in California in 1931, Duvall served in the Army during the Korean War, then studied theater in New York City under the famous acting teacher Sanford Meisner alongside future stars like James Caan and Dustin Hoffman. After getting some early work in New York, his film debut came in 1962’s famed movie version of Harper Lee’s novel To Kill a Mockingbird, where he played the mysterious Boo Radley.

READ MORE: The Best Movie Every Year Since 1970

It is impossible to imagine the great Hollywood movies of the 1970s without Duvall. He appeared in many of the period’s greatest films — including The Godfather and The Godfather Part IIM*A*S*H, Network, and Apocalypse Now.

In The Godfather and The Godfather Part II, Duvall played Tom Hagen, the consigliere and lawyer to Vito Corleone and the Corleone family. Duvall reprised the role for director Francis Ford Coppola two years later, in The Godfather Part II. The first Godfather earned Duvall the first of his seven Academy Award nominations.

Although Duvall had many memorable roles across a decades-long career, his most famous performance arguably came in another Coppola movie, 1979’s Apocalypse Now. He only had a handful of minutes of screen time as the merciless Lt. Kilgore, but he made them count. His delivery of the famous line “I love the smell of napalm in the morning” went down in history as one of the great quotes in film history

Duvall earned his second Oscar nomination for Apocalypse Now, but he didn’t win an Academy Award until four years later, when he starred in Bruce Beresford’s soft-spoken drama Tender Mercies. Playing a washed-up country singer, Duval’s Mac Sledge tries to clean up his life and begins a relationship with a Texas widow. This scene, between Duvall and co-star Tess Harper, is another quietly devastating career highlight.

This is just a small sampling of Duvall’s greatest moments onscreen; a full accounting wouldn’t take 95 years, but it’d come pretty close. Duvall was also nominated for Oscars for his work in The Great SantiniThe ApostleA Civil Action, and 2015’s The Judge, and his other notable films include George Lucas’ THX 1138The OutfitDays of Thunder, Ron Howard’s The PaperSling Blade, and Deep Impact. His final onscreen role came in 2022’s The Pale Blue Eyes — exactly 50 years after his debut in To Kill a Mockingbird. 

The man had an incredible career and produced an enviable body of work. He will be missed, but if he had appeared in half as many iconic ’70s and ’80s movies as he did, he would be remembered forever.

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Essential Movies on Netflix Every Film Lover Should See

If you have a Netflix subscription, and you love movies, here are 20 titles you absolutely have to see.





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Thomas Pritzker, Named in Epstein Files, Retires as Hyatt Executive Chairman

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The hotelier communicated with both Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell.



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Dolphins release WR Tyreek Hill in flurry of roster moves

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MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — The Miami Dolphins released Tyreek Hill in a flurry of roster moves Monday that will clear significant salary cap space.

Former Pro Bowl linebacker Bradley Chubb was also informed of his impending release Monday, per multiple sources, although it was not conveyed whether the transaction will take place immediately or will take place after the start of the league year on March 11 and be designated as a post-June 1 transaction.

Miami also released offensive lineman James Daniels and wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine on Monday.

In a post on Instagram, Hill thanked the Dolphins, his teammates and the team’s fans. He also vowed that his career will continue.

“Miami, you have became my home. But, the journey doesn’t stop here… Every chapter in life has taught me something. This one taught me leadership, resilience, and mostly gratitude. The love I have for this game is unexplainable. And right now, this off season, for the first time ever, The Cheetah is all the way turned up and locked in. Focused.

“The Cheetah don’t slow down. Ever. So to everyone wondering what’s next… just wait on it. The Cheetah will be back…Born Again,” he wrote.

These moves reflect the Dolphins’ new direction under first-year general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan and will save the team roughly $23 million in 2026. That number increases to $30 million if Chubb’s release is immediate.

Miami traded a first-round pick, second-round pick, two fourth-round picks and a sixth-round pick to the Kansas City Chiefs in 2022 to bring Hill to South Florida, and the Dolphins signed him to a four-year, $120 million extension. He instantly became the most productive receiver in the NFL, posting consecutive 1,700-yard seasons in 2022 and 2023. That production tapered off in 2024, when he recorded 81 catches for 959 yards and six touchdowns.

Hill dislocated a knee and tore an ACL in Week 4 of the 2025 season and missed the remainder of the year. He turns 32 in March and is now a free agent for the first time in his 10-year career.

His four seasons in Miami were also mired by off-field issues, including multiple lawsuits and an incident in 2024 when he was dragged out of his vehicle by Miami-Dade police officers outside Hard Rock Stadium just hours before the Dolphins’ regular-season opener.

Months after trading for Hill, the Dolphins sent a first-round pick to the Denver Broncos in exchange for Chubb, and signed him to a five-year, $110 million extension. He posted his second-career double-digit-sack season with 11 in 2023 but suffered a significant injury in his right knee in Week 17, which included a torn ACL, meniscus and patellar tendon.

Chubb missed the entire 2024 season but returned with a team-high 8.5 sacks in 2025, playing all 17 games. He was a team captain and won the local media’s “Good Guy” award for his consistent availability and professionalism with the press.

Although his 10.5% pressure rate in 2025 was the third highest of his career, he was double-teamed on a career-high 23.1% of his pass rushes, which contributed to his career-low 7.8% pass rush win rate last season. He also represented a $31 million cap hit in 2026, turns 30 years old in June and has torn ACLs in both knees during his eight-year NFL career.

Daniels was the Dolphins’ biggest signing of the 2025 offseason as he received a three-year, $24 million deal. However, he suffered a pectoral injury just three snaps into the season opener and missed the remainder of the year.

Westbrook-Ikhine was also in his first season with Miami, signing a two-year, $5.99 million deal after scoring nine touchdowns for the Tennessee Titans in 2024. His production for the Dolphins was limited, however, as he caught just 11 passes for 89 yards.

While the Dolphins have now begun their rebuilding process, a decision has still not been made regarding quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who represents a $56 million cap hit in 2026 with $54 million in guaranteed salary.

The 2020 first-round pick was benched at the end of last season after throwing a career-high 15 interceptions in as many games. He signed a four-year, $212.1 million extension with Miami in 2024, marking the largest contract in franchise history. Sullivan has publicly stated multiple times that the Dolphins will look to add competition to their quarterbacks room but will prioritize team-building ahead of finding their next franchise quarterback.





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Photos of Lunar New Year celebrations for the Year of the Horse

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People around Asia celebrate the Lunar New Year on Tuesday, Feb. 17, the start of the Year of the Horse.

This is a photo gallery curated by AP photo editors.



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Indian Pueblo Cultural Center to expand hours starting in March

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ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (KRQE) – The Indian Pueblo Cultural Center (IPCC) will be expanding its hours at the IPCC main building, including the museum, the Indian Pueblo Store, and the Indian Pueblo Kitchen. The center said the main building will be open on Mondays starting on March 2. “This decision aligns with our ongoing commitment to grow, […]



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Jelly Roll Will Receive Country Radio’s Humanitarian Award

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Jelly Roll, who released the new song “Thorns” last week, will be honored for his achievements away from the stage when Country Radio Seminar gets underway in Nashville in March. The rapper-turned-country-star is the 2026 recipient of the Artist Humanitarian Award, an honor given each year by the Country Radio Broadcasters organization that recognizes the philanthropic contributions of country-radio stars.

Past recipients of the Artist Humanitarian Award include Carrie Underwood, Luke Bryan, Jason Aldean, Kane Brown, and Kenny Chesney. Last year’s award was given to two artists, Eric Church and Luke Combs, for their efforts in helping those affected by Hurricane Helene, particularly in the Western North Carolina region.

Since breaking out with his 2020 song “Save Me,” Jelly Roll has made his own personal tale of sin and redemption a cornerstone of his persona. He was a convicted felon who served time for robbery and drug possession and was also in juvenile detention. According to his wife, the media personality and author Bunnie XO, Jelly Roll will give one of the three Grammys he won at this year’s 68th annual Grammy Awards to the Davidson County Juvenile Detention in Nashville to put on display.

In 2024, he appeared on Capitol Hill to lobby lawmakers to pass legislation to stop the spread of fentanyl.

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“For better or worse, we are an accumulation of everything that ever happened to us, and I think that we have to wear that,” Jelly Roll told Rolling Stone in 2024, talking about his checkered past and how he’s evolved. “I’m 15 to 20 years removed from being a real criminal, and I don’t think like a criminal at all. It took a long time to quit thinking that way. I used to look at it like I wouldn’t wish jail on my worst enemy. Now, I’m like, ‘If that dude did that, and he got time, he deserved it.’ It’s such a paradigm shift on how I look at society as a whole.”

Jelly Roll will receive the award at a ceremony to be announced during Country Radio Seminar, running March 18 through 20, in Nashville. Bunnie XO will release her new memoir, Stripped Down: Unfiltered and Unapologetic, on Tuesday.



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Champions League: Can Mourinho do it again against Real Madrid?

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Europe’s best and brightest lay in wait, but for now, the Champions League is off on a little sojourn as the knockout play off round begins on Tuesday night. For those who missed the top eight, but not the 24, the next eight days offers a second chance to reach the round of 16, but with altogether less room for wobbles this time around.

It was at this stage last year that big names such as Juventus, Milan and Manchester City fell and there will be a few big names intent on avoiding such slip ups this time around. Meanwhile the likes of Qarabag and Bodo/Glimt ready themselves for a first shot at the knockout stages of Europe’s most prestigious competition.

Before we get to them though, well, there’s only one place you can begin. It’s Jose Mourinho against one of his former employers. At whatever stage of whatever competition, that’s pure box office.

1. Can Jose Mourinho deliver another upset?

Nothing can erase the thrills of goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin rising highest at the death to deliver the header that Benfica had just discovered they needed if they were to avoid extend their participation in the Champions League. It was the sort of searing in or out drama that critics said the league phase’s final day of 18 different cogs in the machine could not deliver. There is no way of eradicating European football’s Jimmy Glass moment.

If there were to be one, though, it would probably involve Benfica discovering that the reward for their late win over Real Madrid was to be stomped into the dirt by Real Madrid a few weeks later. After all, Madrid are in so many ways the Michael Jordan of the soccer world. Something, anything happens and “they took that personally.” If you don’t think that the Real Madrid hierarchy, coaching staff and players saw the joyous scenes at the Estadio da Luz and asked how it affects themselves, the main characters of this universe, then you don’t know this club.

Before we get to the matter of whether Madrid can inflict payback on Benfica it’s probably worth asking what Mourinho can do to them. Let’s start by assuming that we are not going to see the same approach from his team that we did in that final league stage game. That was one Benfica had to win to give themselves the best chance of reaching the knockouts. This time, well we’ve seen enough Mourinho knockout football to know that his basic approach still starts with whoever has the ball is the one that can make the mistakes. “I’m very used to these kinds of ties,” he said on Monday. “I’ve been doing it all my life.”

There have been some signs in domestic football of Mourinho softening with age. His Benfica side average over two a goals a game in the Primeira Liga but like so much associated with his homeland — from Viktor Gyokeres’ scoring form to how good Porto were in early 2003 — it’s just very hard to realistically assess Mourinho’s team in a competition with three near equals and an extremely limited field. Maybe we’re better off looking at the limited data pool of the league phase. Looking at the chart below does at least give you a sense of what has been apparent to those who saw Benfica after Mourinho took charge on September 18. The trip to Newcastle aside this was a team who could at least stop the other team from really testing them, allowing only 10.1 non-penalty xG in their eight games. Given that, you’d be hard pressed to believe that Benfica are going to ride out to meet the team their manager calls the “kings of the Champions League” in single combat.


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The question then is whether Real Madrid can overwhelm the defenses. The answer is, yes, they probably can. It’s not hard to make the case that appointing Alvaro Arbeloa lowered the ceiling that Xabi Alonso had built for this team in his brief tenure, the press and possess system that asked so much of his forwards replaced with something a little more up and down with fewer demands placed on the star forwards. Then again when you allow Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior to freelance the results can be pretty awe-inspiring, especially when it’s an in-form Trent Alexander-Arnold getting the ball to them.

The latter’s presence could be an extremely powerful weapon if Benfica do as expected and sit off Madrid. No one in the sport can slide a cross through a low block like Alexander-Arnold, typified in his stunning cross for Gonzalo Garcia’s opener in the 4-1 win over Real Sociedad. Even before his return to the team you could see that Madrid were on the upswing as an attacking force, a function of first Alonso abandoning his system amid player disgruntlement and his sacking effectively handing the reigns to the star players.


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Given that this Madrid team will have a point to prove and the attack to eventually hammer down Benfica’s defenses, you would be hard pressed to convince yourself of much Mourinho magic this time around. Then again, whoever would have seen Trubiin’s late heroics last month?

2. Are PSG able to peak at the right moment?

Twelve months ago, you could see the first signs that something special was bubbling at the Parc des Princes, Paris Saint-Germain coalescing in such a fashion that in a flash they had established themselves as quite clearly the best team on the planet, bound for that Champions League title they had long craved. The only question coming into this season was whether the past few months had been the birth of a dynasty or the sort of magical union of form and fitness that no team could realistically expect to hold up for several years in a row.

For most of 2025-26 it looks like the latter has been the more credible. Defeat at Rennes at the weekend saw the champions cede top spot in Ligue 1 to Lens. Meanwhile, two points from their final three league phase games saw Luis Enrique’s men fritter away a top eight berth and slide into a second successive play off against French opposition. As the xG charts below show (ignore that hot form early in 2024-25, we’re looking at a small data sample) there was a drop off at the start of this season, a serious upswing in the quality and quantity of shots being allowed resulting in a team that looked quite diminished compared to its all-conquering form.


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At least it was easy to explain why PSG had fallen off. After a gruelling summer of Club World Cup commitments, injuries hit hard. Joao Neves, Fabian Ruiz, Marquinhos, Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes all missed time at the start of the season as did Ousmane Dembele. The Ballon d’Or winner, reinvented from mercurial winger into ferocious leader of the pressing pack, was no less critical to the defensive excellence of the Champions League winners than the actual aforementioned defenders. The dip in their attacking oomph was also sustained from the final games of last season, many of which were more nervy than that rout of Inter in the final.

It was not just injuries that held back PSG. Luis Enrique seemed to do the same and that is not a critique. The coaching triumph of 2024-25 had been guiding his squad so that their fitness levels collectively peaked when Arsenal and Inter were on their last legs. If a few games had to be thrown early in the season to give his guys a post-Club World Cup breather, surely that would pay dividends in the spring?

The signs are that that is indeed the case. Since the return of Dembele and Desire Doue, PSG’s offensive output has swung upwards. The defense too has benefitted from more consistently selecting last season’s back four. Strange results might still happen — the 3-1 loss at Rennes saw PSG put up 3.58 xG and allow 1.39 — but at full tilt this is still a team that should back itself to beat any in Europe.

At full tilt is far from given and will require more than just Fabian Ruiz completing his return from a knee issue. It means their star players being fit and settled enough to excel rather than Dembele limping out with 16 minutes to go of the fightback at Rennes, a reminder that fragility has been the default for PSG’s star attacker. It also means no more trading of barbs across post-match media from Dembele, who called on players to “play for the club instead of thinking about themselves,” and his seemingly less than impressed manager. Europe saw what this team looks like when tensions are frayed in the autumn of 2024. It certainly wasn’t a Champions League winner in waiting.

PSG can be that again and there are signs in the data to suggest they might be so soon. It may, however, require a level of collective fitness that, even with Luis Enrique’s careful management, is far from normal at the business end of a season.

3. Are Newcastle on upset watch?

A final league table that wasn’t a million miles away from a European football power rankings means that the playoff round has not thrown up any early showdowns between juggernauts, no re-run of last season’s meeting between Real Madrid and Manchester City. That might mean this round lacks something of the high stakes tension that is the Champions League’s stock trade in the spring months, but it does afford us the prospect of an upset or two.

Galatasaray’s meeting with Juventus might be one to keep an eye out on, though it is not entirely clear that any team that features Victor Osimhen and Leroy Sane should consider themselves long shots to win a two-legged tie early in this competition. The forecast in Bodo suggests that Inter will have even more to worry about than just Norway’s finest.

The more intriguing left-field option might however be Newcastle United’s trip to Azerbaijan. After all, Qarabag are seasoned veterans of two-legged European ties and have won eight of their last 10. Even when they haven’t emerged victorious they’ve pushed big beasts like near-invincible Bayer Leverkusen all the way. In this season’s league phase only Ajax departed Baku victorious and Chelsea were made to pay the price for Enzo Maresca’s rotation in a 2-2 draw where Qarabag might have hoped for more.


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There’ll be questions of rotation and resource allocation for Eddie Howe to consider on the 5,000 mile round trip to a city that is nearer to Delhi than Newcastle. That’s a long journey to recover from by 3 p.m. ET on Saturday, when Newcastle are due at Manchester City, trying to stay in the hunt for qualification to next year’s European competitions. Following the news that star player Bruno Guimaraes would miss up to two months with a hamstring injury, Sven Botman and Yoanne Wissa missed the FA Cup fourth round tie against Aston Villa, propelling the Magpies’ injury list to eight players. Now even without all those players they were able to win well at Villa Park and any team that rolls out the likes of Sandro Tonali and Anthony Gordon should be favorites against Qarabag. Still this might prove to be a fiddlier first leg than it looks, potentially setting the stage for a nerve-wracking night at St. James’ Park next week.





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