The NBA All-Star break is over. Action returns Thursday night with a 10-game slate. Every team has between 26 and 29 games remaining. So let’s to lock back in and refocus on the second “half” of the NBA season. Some teams have already sent out messages like bat signals to show how they’re going to approach the last two months of the regular season.
The Sacramento Kings announced that both Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine will have season-ending surgery. It’s a move that very clearly states the Kings will be tanking the rest of the season to prioritize draft positioning. The Dallas Mavericks did a similar move, announcing Kyrie Irving will not play this season as he continues to rehab from a torn ACL he suffered in March 2025.
While that’s happening at the bottom of the standings, we could be in store for some compelling finishes at the top of the standings with several teams within a few games of each other in both the East and West. As we resume the regular season, let’s take a look at the biggest storylines post-All-Star break.
1. Jayson Tatum’s potential return to the Celtics
When Tatum tore his Achilles in May 2025, it appeared the Celtics would take a gap year with their superstar sidelined. It seemed highly possible that Tatum would be out the entirety of the 2025-26 season, and that Boston would refocus its efforts around the 2026-27 campaign.
But here we are nine months from Tatum’s Achilles surgery, and there’s hints that he could make a return in the coming weeks. The All-Star forward practiced with Boston’s G League squad before the All-Star break, and took part in 5-on-5 scrimmages with Celtics teammates and coaches. Everything is lining up toward a potential return ahead of the playoffs.
Boston owns a 35-19 record, and sits second in the East. There’s a world in which the Celtics could make a deep run in the postseason without Tatum. Having Tatum healthy should only strengthen Boston’s postseason hopes, and shake things up considerably in the East.
The race for the East couldn’t be more wide open at the All-Star break. The Cavs are considered the favorites with +350 odds on FanDuel. The Celtics, Pistons and Knicks all have +370 odds.
The version we get of Tatum will greatly impact Boston’s outlook for the rest of the season. If he comes back close to his All-NBA self, then every other team in the East should be worried about matching up with the Celtics in the postseason. — Jasmyn Wimbish
2. How seriously do we take the Knicks?
I don’t think anyone knows exactly what to make of the Knicks, who entered the All-Star break having won 10 of their previous 12 but remain a defensively deficient team that will likely have to play the rest of the regular season without Miles McBride (who has been the lone Knick with a 100% approval rating this year).
Two big additions to watch: Jose Alvarado, obviously, and also Jeremy Sochan, who fell out of the rotation in San Antonio but could bring real defense and energy to a Knicks team that could use both if given any kind of opportunity.
We’re all waiting for Karl-Anthony Towns to find his range in what has been the worst shooting season of his career, but aside from McBride, Towns’ plus-7.6 net rating is still the best mark on the team, per Cleaning the Glass. The defense is actually worse off with Jalen Brunson on the court sans Towns than vice versa.
Brunson, meanwhile, has been up and down of late himself. He’s got two 40-pieces this month but his 43/31 shooting splits since Feb. 1 leave a lot to be desired. He went 4 for 20 and 0 for 8 from 3 in a 38-point loss to Detroit a couple weeks ago.
Nobody is questioning Brunson’s offensive greatness, but it is a real question whether that’s enough to make up for his own, and largely by extension New York’s collective defensive ails, particularly if Towns doesn’t get the shot going. All of these questions are happening in the context of what feels like the Knicks’ best chance to make the Finals with this team. Can they seize it? These next six weeks won’t tell us everything (anything can happen in the playoffs), but they will tell us a lot. — Brad Botkin
3. Can the Lakers secure a top-six seed?
The Lakers sit 1 ½ games back of the Denver Nuggets for the No. 3 spot in the West. But they also sit just 1 ½ games ahead of the seventh-placed Phoenix Suns as the season resumes. Things are far from settled in the West. The Lakers are one of many West teams who could either host a first-round playoff series or have to earn their playoff spot through the Play-In Tournament.
Having to go through the play-in isn’t the end of the world, but when this team once sat second in the conference at the start of December, falling to seventh and having to potentially face Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs in the first round would not be ideal.
The positive? Austin Reaves is back from a calf strain, and in the five games he’s played since returning, the Lakers have gone 4-1. Having Reaves back is a night and day difference for the Lakers, who were relying far too much on Luka Dončić’s offensive heroics and prime performances from a 41-year-old LeBron James. Reaves takes some of the offensive pressure of Doncic, gives the Lakers another guy who can create offensively and give you 20+ points a night. In just his second game back he had 35 points, showing that had it not been for the calf injury Reaves would’ve probably been a first-time All Star this season.
The have the eighth most difficult schedule over the rest of the season, but the Nuggets and the Timberwolves both have harder schedules, which could provide a nice path towards a top-four spot for L.A. — Jasmyn Wimbish
4. Can the Spurs jump the Thunder?
Let’s keep things in the Western Conference standings. San Antonio is my No. 1 team to watch down the stretch. They resume play on Thursday night against the Suns having won six straight and 11 of their last 14 and three games back of the Thunder for the West’s No. 1 seed.
They have every right to believe they can catch and pass OKC. For starters, the Thunder, who have lost six of their last 11 and will be without Jalen Williams for the foreseeable future, have the second-toughest remaining schedule, per Tankathon. Besides that, the Spurs own the tiebreaker with a 4-1 head-to-head record.
If this happens, how are we not going to classify the Spurs as the title favorite? What other No. 1 seed who has defeated the defending champs four out of five times and won potentially north of 60 games would be considered anything less?
The Spurs are starting to feel a little like the 2015 Warriors to me. The ascent is happening before everyone is ready to fully accept it. They were supposed to be a few years away from contention. This year was supposed to about maybe getting into the playoffs and getting some experience under their belt.
But Victor Wembanyama, like Stephen Curry when he burst onto the scene, has rearranged the geometry of a basketball court to such a degree that no typical timeline can be applied. He’s a force beyond anything we’ve ever seen, honestly, and the Spurs are stacked behind him with every marker of a top-tier contender. Perhaps the top contender. That still feels premature to say, but if they jump OKC for the top seed, I’m not sure how you could call them anything other than the title favorites. — Brad Botkin
5. Tanking wars at the bottom of the standings
The talk of the NBA over the last two weeks has been about the league’s tanking “problem.” The league fined the Utah Jazz $500,000 and the Indiana Pacers $100,000 for “conduct detrimental to the league.” The Jazz were fined for pulling players in the fourth quarter on two occasions despite being in closely-contested games. The Pacers held players out despite them being healthy. Both were obvious efforts by Utah and Indiana to tank, something that the league is seemingly trying to come down hard on.
“Overt behavior like this that prioritizes draft position over winning undermines the foundation of NBA competition and we will respond accordingly to any further actions that compromise the integrity of our games,” NBA commissioner Adam Silver said in the league’s statement.
Since the league’s punishment, there has been a lot of chatter about how to solve the league’s tanking problem. Calls for eliminating the draft, setting lottery odds earlier in the season and holding a lottery tournament to determine who gets what pick have all been bandied about. But while everyone thinks they have the idea that’s going to solve this issue for the league, teams will continue to tank.
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The Wizards, Pacers, Nets, Kings, Jazz, Mavericks and Grizzlies have all essentially been eliminated from the postseason races already and want the best chance possible at the No. 1 pick. The Pacers and Jazz both could potentially lose their picks if they fall below certain slots.
One look at the collegiate basketball landscape this season and most front office executives are probably salivating over the prospect of landing Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer or a handful of other high-profile draft prospects. This is being billed as one of the best drafts in recent memory. Of course these teams want to do everything possible to try and land one of these guys. People might say tanking is bad for the league, but, for now, it’s a necessary evil for teams to try and find generational talent. — Jasmyn Wimbish
6. Cavs, Harden primed for a run
Three games with James Harden, three wins with James Harden, who had four assists down the stretch and hit the game-tying 3 with under a minute to play in Cleveland’s victory over Denver last week.
Cleveland started to find its sea legs after Christmas. They Cavs had won 13 of their previous 18 when the Harden deal went down. Everyone has been waiting for the team that won 64 games last season to emerge, and it feels safe to say that it has. But the question is: How much better can the Cavs be with Harden?
“I understand that this team is going to be something special [with Harden],” Donovan Mitchell wrote in his latest diary installment for Andscape. “We’re 3-0 so far, so we’re not doing too bad. But I’m excited to see what we do when we get some practices under our belt, and we’ll see what that looks like going forward.”
We’ve already seen some of the best of what Harden will bring. He’s carded 26 assists in his three games so far, which speaks to the playmaking burden he’ll lift from the shoulders of Mitchell, the league’s fifth-leading scorer who should be as free as he’s been all season to, well, score.
It’s largely the same tag-team dynamic that existed with Darius Garland, but Harden is a better creator than Garland and, importantly, he’s healthy. The combined gravitational force of these two has already been on display.
Watch here as Harden has the ball on the wing with Mitchell in the short corner, and how the whole defense shifts their way as Jarrett Allen (with whom Harden has already looked very comfortable in two-man actions) cuts straight down the lane.
Possessions like this one below should become more of the norm, with Harden collapsing defenses and making life easier on Mitchell, who is making 40% of his catch-and-shoot 3s this season, per Synergy.
With the threat of Mitchell keeping defenses honest on one side and Allen rolling down the lane, the opposite side shooters should get a lot of looks like this as Harden is a master at waiting for defenses to commit before delivering.
Of course, this is the best of Harden. Time will tell if the worst of him — his defense, namely, and some of his postseason disappearing acts — will bite the Cavs when it counts most. But for now, Cleveland continuing to rise up the Eastern Conference standings (with the league’s fifth-easiest remaining schedule, per Tankathon) looks like a pretty good bet. — Brad Botkin
7. Rookie of the Year race between Flagg and Knueppel
This is one of the most intriguing Rookie of the Year races in recent memory, even if the oddsmakers view Cooper Flagg as a heavy favorite with two months to go (-750 odds at FanDuel). Both Flagg and Kon Knueppel have valid cases to walk away with the award, and on any given night you could argue that one deserves it more. Flagg is shouldering the entirety of Dallas’ offense and has been among the most efficient rookies given the types of shots he’s taking. His defense is also years ahead of where rookies typically are, and he’s already shown he can be the go-to guy in the clutch.
For Knueppel, he’s the best shooting prospect we’ve seen since Stephen Curry, and he’s completely elevated Charlotte’s offense. He’s benefiting from the brilliance of LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller, but he’s much more than just a catch-and-shoot player. Knueppel’s off-ball movement creates so many opportunities directly and indirectly, and he’s about as automatic as it comes from 3-point land.
The first time these former teammates faced each other it was an absolute classic. Flagg had 49 points, while Knueppel had 34 points in the win. We’ll get one more matchup between these two on March 3, and given how close this race is, perhaps it can help in figuring out who should come out on top for Rookie of the Year. — Jasmyn Wimbish
8. The MVP race just got interesting again
When Nikola Jokić went down with a hyperextended knee right before New Year’s, it looked like it would bring an end to his MVP bid on account of not being able to meet the 65-game threshold. But the Nuggets superstar made it back just in time to be able to miss exactly one more game the rest of the way and maintain award eligibility.
As long as Jokić remains eligible, this is a tight race between him and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been out with an injury of his own as the Thunder have lost six of their last 11. Also lurking is Victor Wembanyama, who has missed 14 games so far and thus can miss three more while remaining eligible. SGA remains the betting favorite (Gilgeous-Alexander has -190 odds to Jokić’s +300, while Wembanyama is currently a +3300 longshot).
As mentioned above, San Antonio is a real threat to catch OKC for the No. 1 seed; they’re three games back and own the tiebreaker via a 4-1 head-to-head advantage. Wembanyama’s numbers considering he’s only playing 29 minutes a game are crazy. Factoring in both ends of the court, he’s probably the most impactful per-minute player in the NBA, and if the Spurs do claim the No. 1 seed it will be tough to not consider him seriously for MVP.
Now add in Cade Cunningham, Luka Doncic and Jaylen Brown, and this race that once looked to be all but sewn up for SGA when Jokić went down suddenly looks like it could be in for a photo finish. — Brad Botkin
