The Consumer Price Index for February will be reported at 8:30 a.m. ET Wednesday and is expected to show that prices rose only slightly right before the Iran war sent energy costs skyrocketing.

Analysts and economists surveyed expect inflation overall to have risen 0.3% from January. Year over year, inflation is expected to remain tracking at 2.4%. Core inflation, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, is expected to have declined to a 0.2% month-over-month pace, down from 0.3% in January.

“The February CPI report should continue to show that inflation remains relatively contained,” Bank of America economists wrote in a recent note.

Crucially, February’s report was produced before the U.S. and Israel launched a large-scale attack on Iran on the final day of the month.

The critical Strait of Hormuz, off the southwestern corner of Iran, has been effectively shut down since the war began.

More than 20% of the world’s supply of oil typically transits the waterway to reach the international markets. As a result, the price of U.S. crude oil has increased more than 20% since the first strikes. Retail gas prices have also soared more than 50 cents.

Also in February, the Supreme Court struck down many of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, ruling that he exceeded his presidential authority when he imposed country-specific emergency tariffs last year. While Trump has replaced some of the tariffs with a global 10% duty, the impact on prices is not yet clear.

“Perhaps more important than the Feb. data is the evolving risk space for inflation,” Bank of America wrote. “While our base case is for the conflict to be short-lived, a longer conflict would likely lead to a more sustained increase in oil.”

“That would put upward pressure on headline, core inflation and inflation expectations in the months ahead,” BofA’s analysts added.

JPMorgan Chase’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, wrote in a note this week: “The economy should not have much trouble weathering a moderate oil price spike, but there is an increasing risk that higher prices could create a more material near-term drag on the economy—particularly if they were to rise well above $100 per barrel and hold there.”

Still, he said, “the risk remains for a much larger and more sustained increase in oil prices should disruptions to supply persist.”

On Tuesday, Iran continued to exchange fire with regional neighbors.

Morgan Stanley economist Diego Anzoategu wrote in a recent note that the impact on core inflation from higher oil prices “is not only small but also highly narrow: historically, the pass-through occurs mainly through airfares. Absent a sharper rise in energy prices, the effects on core inflation tend to be short-lived and limited.”

U.S. oil prices rose above $100 per barrel Sunday and Monday morning, but since then trading has moderated, and the benchmark traded around $85 per barrel late Tuesday.

Airlines used to hedge against spiking prices, but they no longer do so.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told CNBC on Friday that fare increases would “probably start quick.” Still, he said, demand “has not taken even a tiny step back” since the war began.

Gold Coast, Australia — The Iranian women’s soccer team left Australia minus seven of its members who were granted asylum, after tearful protests of their departure at Sydney Airport and frantic final efforts inside the terminal by Australian officials who sought to ensure the women understood they were being offered asylum.

As the team’s flight time drew nearer and they passed through security late Tuesday, each woman was taken aside to meet alone with officials who explained through interpreters that they could choose not to return to Iran.

Seven other women earlier accepted humanitarian visas allowing them to remain permanently in Australia. Eventually, after what Australian Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke described as “emotional” meetings, no more women accepted the offers of asylum and the team’s flight departed Sydney with all remaining members on board.

The tense and precarious nature of their decisions was underscored Wednesday when Burke announced one of the seven who had stayed behind would return home after all.

“In Australia, people are able to change their mind,” said Burke, who had hours earlier posted photos of the seven women granted humanitarian visas to his social media accounts, their identities clearly visible.

It was a dramatic conclusion to an episode that has gripped Australia since the Iranian team’s first game at the Asian Cup soccer tournament, when they remained silent during their national anthem. The players sang the anthem before subsequent games and haven’t publicly disclosed their views or explained their actions.

Their silence was cast as a gesture of defiance or protest by some, and an act of mourning by others.

“When those players were silent at the start of their first match in Australia, that silence was heard as a roar all around the world,” Burke said. “We responded by saying, the invitation is there. In Australia you can be safe.”

The team arrived in Australia last month, before the Iran war began Feb. 28. Iran was knocked out of the tournament over the weekend and the squad faced the prospect of returning to a country under bombardment.

The women’s fate captured international attention as Iranian Australian groups warned they could face dire consequences from Iran’s theocratic government for failing to sing the anthem, even as the players remained silent on the gesture’s meaning or their own concerns about returning. There was further outrage in Australia on Wednesday after news outlets published a photo that appeared to show a women being led by the wrist by a teammate to the bus bound for the airport, another squad member’s hand at her shoulder.

President Trump waded into the matter Monday, criticizing the Australian government for not offering the women asylum and  saying in a post on his Truth Social platform, “The U.S. will take them if you won’t.”

It emerged the next day that discussions between Australian officials and the women had already been unfolding privately.

Meanwhile, an Iranian official rejected suggestions that the women weren’t safe to go home.

“Iran welcomes its children with open arms and the government guarantees their security,” Iranian first Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said Tuesday. “No one has the right to interfere in the family affairs of the Iranian nation and play the role of a nanny who is kinder than a mother,” he added.

Iranian state TV said the country’s football federation had asked international soccer bodies to review what it called the U.S. president’s “direct political interference in football,” warning such remarks could disrupt the 2026 World Cup.

Australian officials have sought to assure the public that the women were given every opportunity to stay. But as one woman’s decision to return home despite accepting asylum showed, the reality wasn’t so simple.

After days of overtures from officials, Burke said, the efforts to ensure each team member had the chance to consider asylum offers came down to last-minute discussions at Sydney Airport, where the women were separated from their minders and had time to phone their families before deciding whether to leave.

“Everything was about ensuring the dignity for those individuals to make a choice,” he said. “We couldn’t take away the pressure of the context for these individuals, of what might have been said to them beforehand, what pressures they might have felt there were on other family members.”

No further members of the squad decided to remain in Australia before the flight departed, however, and Burke said “exhausted” officials feared they had failed the women.

“As a nation, what mattered was that we could provide the choice,” he said.

On Wednesday, many newspaper front pages bore a photo of the women who had accepted asylum offers under headlines like “Brave new Aussies.” But just hours later, Burke said that one of the women would return to Iran after conversations with her departed teammates.

“Unfortunately, in making that decision she was advised by her teammates and coach to contact the Iranian embassy and to get collected,” he said. “As a result of that, it meant that the Iranian embassy now knew the location of where everybody was.”

The six women planning to remain in Australia were immediately moved to a different location for security reasons, the minister said. He pledged they would not have to fight a legal battle for permanent residency and would receive health, housing and other support in Australia.

Some of the squad, who officials said had connections to Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, were not offered visas.

“There were some people leaving Australia who I am glad they’re no longer in Australia,” Burke said.

It wasn’t clear exactly how many people were in the delegation, but an official squad list named 26 players, plus coaching and other staff. The Asian Football Confederation, which organized the tournament, confirmed Wednesday that the squad had traveled from Sydney to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, where they were staying in a hotel.

“The AFC will provide all necessary support to the team during their stay until their onward travel arrangements are confirmed,” a statement said, adding that the body would “continue to prioritise the welfare and safety of the players and officials.”

The initial five players granted asylum had been staying in a safe location after fleeing their hotel, Iranian opposition figure and exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi said Sunday.

The office of Pahlavi, whose father, the Western-backed Shah, was ousted during the Islamic Revolution in 1979, said on social media that the “courageous athletes” announced that “they have joined Iran’s national Lion and Sun Revolution” — a reference to the pre-Islamic Revolution flag of Iran — and naming them in the post.