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Charlie Creme
Multiple Authors
As the selection committee continues to meet in Indianapolis to finalize the 2026 women’s NCAA tournament bracket, many of its biggest decisions have already been made.
The No. 1 seeds — UConn, UCLA, Texas and South Carolina — were decided a week ago when the Power 4 conference tournaments concluded. And with the alphabetical release of the top 16 seeds on Saturday, the committee has already determined which teams will be hosting games on the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament.
Reigning champion UConn and UCLA will be headliners on Selection Sunday when the entire NCAA bracket is revealed (8 p.m. ET, ESPN), but there is some debate over which one will get the nod at No. 1 overall.
The bubble teams are all done playing, but the committee likely is still poring over the data for a deeper group than we’ve seen in recent years.
As the committee works to wrap up its deliberations, we dive into some of the remaining questions that will most influence the final bracket.
Which team will be the No. 1 overall seed?
Since ESPN’s Bracketology first projected the field in October, UConn has been the projected No. 1 overall seed. The Huskies remain the nation’s lone unbeaten team, with nine Quad 1 wins. They were also the top seed in the committee’s top-16 reveals on Feb. 14 and March 1.
But the Bruins’ metrics are no less impressive: 18 Quad 1 wins, the top wins above bubble number (a new stat we’ll get into below), the nation’s best strength of schedule.
Since that March 1 standings reveal, UCLA won a Big Ten tournament title to go with a regular-season championship. If the committee sees a sweep of the championships in the country’s second-rated conference — and that 51-point win over Iowa in the finals last Sunday — as compelling, the Bruins could overtake the Huskies for the top spot.
What will be the order of the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds?
By bracketing rules, the first four teams from a conference must be placed in different regions. That means that LSU and Vanderbilt, both expected to be No. 2 seeds, can’t be placed with either South Carolina or Texas, both of which certainly will be on the No. 1 seed line.
Whether UConn or UCLA is the No. 1 overall seed is the other factor that will most impact the top two lines. And combined, these decisions will create the potential regional final matchups. But it’s important to remember the committee follows its rules of seeding and bracketing — it does not anticipate the outcome of games or look to set up matchups deeper in the bracket.
If the Huskies are the top team overall, they will be paired in Fort Worth with LSU or Vanderbilt, whichever team the committee has lower on its list. In this case, a lower seed would actually mean less travel for the regionals — going to Fort Worth instead of Sacramento, where UCLA would be in this scenario. If travel is a concern, being the No. 7 or 8 overall seed might be better than being No. 5 or 6. It’s a small nuance, but an interesting twist to process.
In ESPN’s Bracketology, UConn is No. 1 overall and Vanderbilt is a No. 2 seed in the Fort Worth 1 Regional. In the Sacramento 2 Regional, UCLA is the No. 1 seed and LSU is the No. 2 seed.
How will the bubble shake out?
Last year, the debate was between the final two teams for a spot. This year, there are several teams competing for the final at-large invites and there is a new metric to consider. How much committee members lean on Wins Above Bubble (WAB) will be something to watch.
WAB indicates how many more or fewer wins a team has compared to what a bubble team — defined as a team ranked 45th in the NET — would average against that same schedule.
Arizona State and Nebraska, current teams on the right side of the bubble in Bracketology, have positive Wins Above Bubble. Virginia and Richmond, the other two teams in Last Four In, are in the negative. However, the Cavaliers and Spiders also each have NET rankings of 36 and 37, respectively. That typically gets a team in.
Teams on the outside looking in, such as BYU and Texas A&M, have positive WAB numbers but much lower NET rankings, 56 and 62, respectively. The Aggies have the eighth-ranked strength of schedule in the country as well, but also a record of just 14-12 and a Quad 4 loss. The Cougars don’t have a Quad 1 win but went 8-4 against Quad 2 opponents. They have a weak nonconference schedule strength (211th in the country) and were blown out numerous times on the road.
The committee uses 12 pieces of criteria to make these decisions, but how it specifically balances the NET and WAB will go a long way in deciding which of these teams sees their name called Sunday night.
How much did Champ Week influence the top 16, the bubble and No. 1 overall?
The selection process is first and foremost about a team’s entire body of work, but it was clear when we saw the committee’s alphabetical listing of the top-16 Saturday that success in Champ Week mattered. West Virginia, which was not in either of the first two top-16 reveals on Feb. 14 or March 1 but made a run to a Big 12 tournament championship, will be hosting first- and second-round NCAA tournament games. North Carolina also found its way into this final top-16 after the Tar Heels beat Duke in their regular-season finale and then reached the ACC tournament semifinals, where they lost a competitive game to Louisville.
Maryland and Michigan State had been included in previous top-16 reveals but were left out of the final top 16 on Saturday. The Terrapins and Spartans failed to win a game in the Big Ten tournament. Kentucky also did not make either reveal but was a team mentioned as being in the conversation; the Wildcats didn’t make it this time either. They didn’t do quite enough in Champ Week. Despite winning two SEC tournament games, Kentucky lost to South Carolina by 23 points in the quarterfinals. The Wildcats appeared to be one more good performance short.
So what will that mean for the bubble?
Nebraska was one-and-done in the Big Ten tournament. Richmond had a bad performance in the Atlantic 10 semifinals losing to George Mason. In its first SEC tournament game, Texas A&M lost to an Auburn team that three days earlier was beaten by Arkansas, which had not won an SEC game all season, by 29 points. Conversely, BYU and Arizona State both advanced to the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals, with the Sun Devils beating a NCAA tournament-bound Iowa State team. If the Champ Week results that helped West Virginia and North Carolina are applied, it could be good news for Arizona State and BYU, too.
