U.S. stocks rose Wednesday and global oil prices fell in yet another volatile trading session, as traders and investors were buffeted by constant headlines about the war in Iran.
On Tuesday night, reports surfaced that the U.S. had sent Iran a 15-point peace plan, which sparked hopes that the Trump administration was moving to end its monthlong war against Iran. Two regional sources and a U.S. official confirmed to NBC News on Wednesday that the plan had been sent.
Initially, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose more than 1%.
On Wednesday morning however, unconfirmed reports from Iranian media, which cited an anonymous source, said that Tehran would not accept a ceasefire or hold talks with the United States. The reports briefly knocked index futures off their pre-market highs and lifted oil prices off their early morning lows.
Despite the apparent setback, stocks opened the trading day higher. The S&P 500 index rose about 1%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.2% and the Dow jumped 575 points. The Russell 2000 rose about 0.5%.
The price of U.S. crude oil tumbled more than 4% in morning trading to about $88 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, crude oil has soared more than 30% since the start of the war on Feb. 28. The cost per barrel is up 50% since the beginning of the year.
International Brent crude prices also fell Wednesday to around $100 per barrel.
“Just one headline has the potential to send oil prices and Treasury yields meaningfully higher or lower,” analysts at Citi wrote on Wednesday, describing the current state of the stock market.
Pakistan has offered to mediate talks to end the fighting, four sources told NBC News. A Gulf official said Pakistan had been passing messages between the two countries for the past two days.
An in-person meeting between the U.S. and Iran could be held in the coming days, two sources added.
But President Donald Trump has continued to give conflicting signals.
On March 16, Trump said he was delaying his scheduled visit to China “by a month or so” to monitor the war. On March 23, Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz would be “open very soon.”
And on Tuesday, Trump declared, “This war has been won,” while speaking to reporters in the Oval Office. At the same time, the U.S. is sending more than 1,000 additional troops to the Middle East, sources told NBC News.
Since the war started, the market has seen moments like this before though with markets getting whipsawed by constant back-and-forth comments.
“Uncertainty remains high,” analysts at ING wrote in a note on Wednesday morning. “Overall, volatility remains elevated and a geopolitical risk premium persists.”
They added that the “ongoing tensions continue to support higher prices, stoke inflation concerns” and will likely cause central banks to remain on hold, rather than cut rates. In Europe though, traders believe the European Central Bank and Bank of England will have to go so far as raising rates.
“Markets desperately want to believe in the positive,” wrote UBS Global Wealth Management chief economist Paul Donovan. “Focus on the apparent 15-point US plan to end the war has received more attention than Iranian dismissals of this, or the fact that passage through the Strait of Hormuz is minimal.”
A motorist drives past a sign displaying prices at a gas station, in Oakland, Calif., on Tuesday.Godofredo A. Vásquez / AP
But in the 17 trading sessions since the war began, U.S. oil prices have closed down only 4 times so far. Likewise, over that same time period, the S&P 500 has closed higher only 6 times. 3 of those higher closes were only fractional.
Before Wednesday’s opening bell, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were set to record their worst months in a year. The Dow is set to post its worth month since September 2022.
The Nasdaq was down more than 6% for the year, while the S&P 500 was on tracking a 4% loss for the year so far. The majority of those losses have come since the war began.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil supply normally passes, has remained at a near standstill since the war began.
On Monday, just five total ships passed through the Strait, according to data compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence. On Tuesday, the total was only six. On many days since the war started not a single ship has passed through.
However, some of the few ships passing through the strait have taken an unusual course close to the Iranian coastline, potentially signaling that Tehran is keeping a tight grip on traffic flows. Two specific Indian ships on Tuesday were granted passage after a deal with Iran, Bloomberg News reported. The Iranian Navy also guided the ships.
Otherwise, hundreds of other ships loaded up with cargo, oil and liquified natural gas, remain stuck.
Hannah Montana. Billboard pop charts. Hannah Montan Romania. There’s ticket. Good to be home. We have so many shared memories. We actually grew up together. I hear heels and they’re not mine. What Disney boy did you have the biggest crush on at the time? Get the tea kettle. This is where it’s gonna get emotional. I’ve loved being Hannah. I love being Miley Cyrus. You really taught me how to be who I am. Love you so much. Love you. Best of both worlds. I loved being Hannah then. I’m so living for it now. Thank you so much for being here and celebrating this with us. world. Watch this 00, it, it’s, it’s old, it’s 20 years, give her *** break.
Best of both births: Hospital celebrates ‘Hannah Montana’ anniversary with 2 newborns
A hospital in Pennsylvania celebrated the 20th anniversary of “Hannah Montana” on Tuesday with two adorable newborns.Video above: Hannah Montana 20th Anniversary trailerThe Allegheny Health Network Forbes Hospital shared a photo of the newborns on social media: one portraying “Miley Stewart” and the other portraying her pop star alter ego, “Hannah Montana,” as the famed Disney TV series celebrated 20 years. “Hannah Montana,” or Mia, rocked a purple dress after being welcomed into the world by her parents, Mariah and Mark Merlino.Bayleigh, who may now be nicknamed “Miley,” sported a blue dress after she was welcomed into the loving arms of her parents, Cassandra and Derek Carothers.”This year marks the 20th anniversary of Hannah Montana, and these precious babies from AHN Forbes Hospital are the best of both worlds!” the hospital wrote. “Whether they chill it out / take it slow or they rock out the show, you know these little stars will always be a true friend.”The “Hannah Montana 20th Anniversary Special” was released on Disney+ on Tuesday.
Video above: Hannah Montana 20th Anniversary trailer
The Allegheny Health Network Forbes Hospital shared a photo of the newborns on social media: one portraying “Miley Stewart” and the other portraying her pop star alter ego, “Hannah Montana,” as the famed Disney TV series celebrated 20 years.
“Hannah Montana,” or Mia, rocked a purple dress after being welcomed into the world by her parents, Mariah and Mark Merlino.
Bayleigh, who may now be nicknamed “Miley,” sported a blue dress after she was welcomed into the loving arms of her parents, Cassandra and Derek Carothers.
“This year marks the 20th anniversary of Hannah Montana, and these precious babies from AHN Forbes Hospital are the best of both worlds!” the hospital wrote. “Whether they chill it out / take it slow or they rock out the show, you know these little stars will always be a true friend.”
The “Hannah Montana 20th Anniversary Special” was released on Disney+ on Tuesday.
Believe it or not, with the prices of everything skyrocketing lately, Major League Baseball stadiums across America have begun taking the initiative to make a day at the ballpark with your kids more affordable.
The Daily Mealdid the hard work of finding the MLB stadiums with the best food deals this year and boy did they conquer that goal.
The Cheapest Concessions Out of All MLB Stadiums
Daikin Park, the home of the Houston Astros has $1 hot dogs. It doesn’t get much cheaper than that folks.
Plus, they have an all you-can-eat offering for $25. That includes all of your favorite ballpark snacks, like hot dogs, nachos, pretzels, and popcorn.
What Other Major League Baseball Stadiums Have Great Deals For Fans?
Great American Ball Park, home of the Cincinnati Reds, has some great combo meals that are available on Tuesdays.
Their Great American Ball Park Budweiser 3-2-1 deal features a 12-ounce Budweiser beer for $3, for mom or dad obviously, and hot dogs for $2 each, and $1 ice cream cups.
Target Field, home of the Minnesota Twins, also has $1 hot dogs, but only on Tuesdays, where you can pick up two hot dogs for a buck each.
Anyone sitting in the alcohol-free family section any day of the week can also pick up a free dog and a free Pepsi at Mill City Grill by section 318.
Pretty good deal if you decide to stay alcohol free for all nine innings.
Chase Field, home of the Arizona Diamondbacks, has a value menu that’s live every day, featuring hot dogs, peanuts, popcorn and sodas for $2.99 every day and a 12-ounce beer is $4.99.
That beer will be nice when the roof is open at Chase Field and the Arizona sun is beating down on you.
Comerica Park, home to the Detroit Tigers, features $1 chips and $3 dogs.
Take in a Detroit Tigers home game on a Tuesday and pick up a bag of chips for just $1, and hot dogs, water and soda for $3 each.
As someone who lived in Detroit for six years, take that deal — because you will need something to cheer you up when the Tigers break your heart.
T-Mobile Park, home of the Seattle Mariners, has a value menu starting at $3.
The Seattle Mariners’ stadium offers a value menu with 21 items ranging from $3 for snacks like peanuts or a churro to $10 for a curry donut and dip and Stadium Bites. I don’t know if spending $10 on an experimental curry donut mashup is where it’s at though.
LoanDepot Park, home of the Miami Marlins, has $3 hot dogs and more.
The value menu for Miami Marlins home games also features pretzels or popcorn for $3, water, Pepsi or a 12-ounce beer for $5.
Citi Field, home of the New York Mets, has $5 Tuesdays where you can enjoy Nathan’s hot dogs, popcorn boxes, soft pretzels, a 12-ounce Coors Light draft beer, bottled water, or 22-ounce fountain soda for $5 each.
I would say that might be the best deal out of them all.
The final four European spots for the 2026 FIFA World Cup are still up for grabs and the road to securing them continues Thursday, March 26 with 16 teams in action. The winners of eight UEFA World Cup playoffs semifinals on Thursday will advance to next Tuesday’s finals, where four nations will earn a trip to the 2026 FIFA World Cup this summer in North America.
Four-time World Cup champions Italy are among the teams fighting to advance, and they face Northern Ireland at 3:45 p.m. ET on Thursday in Bergamo, Italy. The winner faces the winner of the other Path A match, Wales vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina. The other matches Thursday are Ukraine vs. Sweden and Poland vs. Albania (Path B), Slovakia vs. Kosovo and Turkey vs. Romania (Path C), Czech Republic vs. Republic of Ireland and Denmark vs. North Macedonia (Path D).
Those interested in wagering on Thursday’s games have to see what SportsLine soccer expert Martin Green is locking in for his best bets. After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Last year, Green was profitable in multiple areas on his soccer betting picks, including Euro qualifying (+6.30 units), EFL Cup (+4.47), FA Cup (+3.07) and Champions League (+3.05), among others.
Here are Green’s best bets and analysis for Thursday’s games. Sports fans interested in tailing Green’s picks can use the latest DraftKings promo code for these contests.
UEFA World Cup qualifying playoffs bets for Thursday, Feb. 26
Wales vs. Bosnia & Herzegovina – Both teams to score (+100)
Poland money line vs. Albania and Under 4.5 Goals (-118)
Turkey + Italy money line parlay (-118)
Wales vs. Bosnia & Herzegovina both teams to score (+100)
This should be an entertaining clash between two attacking teams. Bosnia and Herzegovina have found the back of the net in their last 11 games, a run stretching back to November 2024 — when they lost 7-0 to Germany. However, they rarely keep clean sheets. They’ve conceded in their past five matches, and BTTS paid off in eight of their last 11 games.
Wales also struggle to keep clean sheets. They’ve conceded in four of their past five. The only exception was a 1-0 win against minnows Liechtenstein, so it’s hard to see them shutting out this dangerous Bosnia and Herzegovina team. Veteran striker Edin Džeko is still going strong while Stuttgart forward Ermedin Demirovic could also cause problems for the Welsh defense.
Wales are coming off a 7-1 victory against North Macedonia. They have talented Premier League stars like Harry Wilson and Brennan Johnson in their ranks, so they should also get on the score sheet in this game.
Poland money line vs. Albania and Under 4.5 Goals (-118)
Poland should be too strong for Albania when the teams meet in Warsaw this week. The Poles have a very strong home record, with five wins and a draw from their last six games. That draw came against a star-studded Netherlands team, which featured the likes of Virgil Van Dijk, Frenkie de Jong and Cody Gakpo. Poland manager Jan Urban has called up a strong squad for this game, featuring Barcelona striker Robert Lewandowski, Inter Milan midfielder Piotr Zielinski, and Atalanta‘s Nicola Zelewski.
His team should have enough quality to breach the Albanian defense. Poland also look strong at the back with the likes of Jakub Kiwior, Matty Cash and Bartosz Bereszynski all in good form. They’ve only conceded two goals in their last six home games and all six of them saw Under 4.5 goals. For that reason, combining Poland to win with Under 4.5 goals looks appealing. Albania aren’t a particularly exciting team — they only scored seven goals and conceded just five times in eight matches during the World Cup qualifying campaign – so this could be a tight, low-scoring affair. Home advantage should ultimately swing it in Poland’s favor, as they have more quality in attack.
Turkey + Italy money line parlay (-118)
Turkey should get the better of Romania in Istanbul. They’re on a four-game unbeaten streak, and they’re coming off an impressive 2-2 draw with European champions Spain. The squad is packed with quality players, including Real Madrid‘s Arda Güler, Juventus winger Kenan Yildiz and Inter Milan midfielder Hakan Çalhanoğlu. They should outclass Romania, as they look superior in pretty much every department.
Combining Turkey to beat Romania with Italy to beat Northern Ireland looks appealing. The Italians are also playing at home and it would be a major upset if they failed to beat Northern Ireland in Bergamo. Once again, they have a vastly superior squad to their opponents, featuring world-class players like Gianluigi Donnarumma, Alessandro Bastoni, and Nicolò Barella. Inter striker Pio Esposito is going from strength to strength, and he could put Northern Ireland to the sword.
President Trump voiced optimism on Tuesday that a peace deal will be reached with Iran, while insisting the war had already been won.
“This war has been won,” Mr. Trump said in the Oval Office. “The only one that likes to keep it going is the fake news.”
“We killed all their leadership,” he said when CBS News’ Ed O’Keefe asked which Iranians the U.S. was now negotiating with. “And then they met to choose new leaders and we killed all of them. And now we have a new group, and we can easily do that, but let’s see how they turn out.”
“It’s — we have, really, regime change,” the president said. “You know, this is a change in the regime, because the leaders are all very different than the ones that we started off with that created all those problems. So this was, I think we can say, Jason, this is regime change, right?”
Iran’s new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is the son of the former supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the war. While the new leader has not been seen since he was tapped to succeed his father, and he’s believed to have been wounded in the same strike, there have been no signs of a disintegration of Islamic Republic’s well-defined power structure, with the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard still defiant, and seemingly in control of Iran’s war effort.
NEW MEXICO (KRQE) – Slightly milder air has started off for most across the region with the morning temperatures once again being warmer than average. Some clouds are passing through out east, but because of that ridge of high pressure growing stronger to the west, conditions will remain dry with more record high temperatures once again. […]
The Chinese owner of shopping app Temu reported lower 11% lower profit in the final quarter of 2025, as its domestic e-commerce platform remained under pressure from competition.
Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
Multiple Authors
College football coaches talk constantly about controlling what they can control. They know that, at the heart of this billion-dollar industry lies a very silly, very random game. The pointy ball, the transient and unreliable collections of 18- to 23-year-old men, the extreme physicality that produces lots of injuries … coaches know that even if they recruit well, develop players well and deploy sturdy tactics, sometimes the breaks are simply going to go against them.
Take Clemson and Baylor, for instance. They ranked first and ninth, respectively, in returning production heading into 2025. Clemson had won 10 games and an ACC title the previous season, while Baylor had leaped from 3-9 to 8-5. The Tigers were ranked in the preseason top five, while the Bears at least had sleeper Big 12 hopes. But after producing a combined plus-22 turnover margin in 2024 (with turnover luck at +17.8, as we’ll define below), they combined for a minus-11 in 2025, a 33-turnover shift in the wrong direction. They went a combined 12-13.
Take Arkansas and Florida State. They had very different 2024 campaigns — Arkansas climbed from 4-8 to 7-6, while FSU plummeted to 2-10 — but, in 2025, both had hopes of engineering solid bowl campaigns for their embattled head coaches. Instead, they went a combined 0-10 in one-score finishes, failing to either generate or benefit from the bounces they needed. The Hogs fired head coach Sam Pittman, while FSU’s Mike Norvell is on his last strike.
Take Syracuse and Colorado, two fallen programs that had found reason for optimism in 2024. The Orange and Buffaloes won a combined 19 games in 2024, but they were forced to start 92 different players on offense and defense in 2025, with only 13 starting 11 or 12 games. Constant injuries and endless shuffling produced a pair of 3-9 campaigns.
Take Indiana. Coach Curt Cignetti might be a wizard. A year after his Hoosiers got a solid number of breaks while charging to 11-2, they got even more of them during 2025’s national title run. They were in the top 10 in turnover luck, close-game fortune and lineup stability, as you’ll see below. Maybe he has cracked the code and figured out how to make the game far more controllable? Maybe a season of atrocious luck awaits in Bloomington? We’ll find out.
Be it turnovers, close-game fortune or injuries, let’s talk about the teams that were dealt the best and worst hands last fall.
Turnover luck
Here are two truths when it comes to turnovers:
Over a long enough period of time, a team will recover about 50% of the fumbles that occur in its games.
Over a long enough period of time, a team will produce a ratio of about one interception to every four pass breakups.
Through some combination of risk tolerance (say, defensive backs who take extra chances) and proper fundamentals (running backs properly leaving the ball unexposed), a team can have a bit of an impact on its turnover margin. But once a ball is fumbled or deflected, randomness takes over. And the teams that benefit the most from randomness in a given season tend to find comeuppance from the turnover gods the next season.
Based on the two truths above, we can determine what amounts to an expected turnover margin based on what would have happened if a team had recovered 50% of all fumbles, and both it and its opponents had produced the proper INT-to-PBU ratio. Compare a team’s actual turnover margin to its expected margin, and voilà, we have turnover luck. It’s a pretty powerful predictor.
In 2024, 14 teams had turnover luck of plus-5.5 or more (meaning, their turnover margin was at least 5.5 turnovers better than it should have been). That luck reversed for 12 of them in 2025, and these 14 teams’ average turnover margin dropped by 7.1 turnovers in 2025. James Madison‘s turnover margin went from plus-20 in 2024 to plus-1 (which makes their 12-2 run even more impressive). Clemson’s went from plus-16 to plus-2. Baylor’s went from plus-6 to minus-13. Boston College went from plus-9 to minus-9.
The same thing happened in reverse: 22 teams had turnover luck of minus-5.0 or worse in 2024, and luck reversed for 20 of them in 2025. Average change in turnover margin: plus-9.6. Temple went from minus-9 to plus-11. Central Michigan went from minus-17 to plus-5. Southern Miss went from minus-19 to plus-14!
Which teams are most likely to see wild swings in 2026?
I’m giving Maryland fans pretty conflicting vibes this week. The Terrapins rank second in returning production, which provides some level of hope, but the fact that they went 4-8 last season despite some of the best turnover luck in the country certainly hints at a lower bar. The same goes for teams like Kansas State and LSU, which suffered disappointing campaigns despite some happy bounces.
On the flipside, you have Texas A&M. While most of the teams at the bottom of this list were disappointing in 2025 — North Carolina faceplanted in Bill Belichick’s first season, Arkansas went a dire 2-10, et cetera — Mike Elko’s Aggies had the third-worst turnover luck in the country and still made their first College Football Playoff. Of course, most of that luck came at the end of the season, as a thrilling 11-0 start turned into a disappointing 11-2 finish. In their last four games, a run that featured their wild comeback against South Carolina and losses to Texas and Miami, they had an expected turnover margin of minus-2.3 and an actual turnover margin of minus-9, including a minus-2 in the 10-3 defeat to Miami. With even neutral luck, the end of their season might have looked a lot different.
Close games
One of my favorite tools in my statistical toolbox is postgame win expectancy. The idea is to take all of a game’s key, predictive stats — all the things that end up feeding into my SP+ rankings — and basically toss them into the air and say, “With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time.”
Postgame win expectancy tells us a lot about the predictive power of certain key results from a given season. Oklahoma‘s vital 23-21 win over Alabama in November, for instance, punched the Sooners’ CFP ticket but featured just 4.9% postgame win expectancy; two of Miami’s three CFP wins, meanwhile, were a bit on the fortunate side — their win over Ole Miss was a toss-up (47.9% postgame win expectancy), and the win over Ohio State (30.0%) suggests the Hurricanes probably wouldn’t have won a best-of-seven series.
(None of this is to say these wins or teams were illegitimate. Having seasons determined by funky breaks and strange results is part of the fun of college football!)
Adding up each team’s postgame win expectancies is a nice way of seeing how many games they could have expected to win on average. I call this a team’s second-order win total. And when a team’s actual win total skews a bit too far from its second-order win total, the odds of a reversal the next season are pretty high.
In 2024, there were 13 teams that finished with win totals at least 1.5 games above their second-order win totals. They went from a combined 120-50 that season to 93-72, a drop of 2.1 wins per team, in 2025. Iowa State and Missouri slipped from a combined 21-6 to 16-9. Sam Houston and Syracuse plummeted from a combined 20-6 to 5-19.
There were also 15 teams that finished at least 1.5 wins short of their 2024 second-order win totals. Predictably, they mostly charged forward in 2025, going from 86-104 to 104-91, a rise of 1.2 wins per team. Miami and Ole Miss both suffered key close losses that kept them out of CFP bids in 2024 but improved from a combined 20-6 to 26-5 with deep CFP runs in 2025. Fresno State and Washington, meanwhile, each jumped from 6-7 to 9-4 last fall thanks in part to a second-order win reversal.
Finishing as a second-order wins outlier doesn’t guarantee a reversal the next season, of course. Texas Tech was on the fortunate end in 2024, going 6-1 in one-score games and 8-5 overall; the Red Raiders still charged to 12-2 in 2025, improving so much overall that they no longer needed close-game luck. Meanwhile, Auburn‘s 5-7 record in 2024 was 2.8 wins away from its second-order win total, the worst difference in the country. The Tigers proceeded to go 5-7 again in 2025, 0-6 in one-score finishes. Auburn never really adheres to math and probability.
The list of 2025 outliers starts with a couple of conference champs.
Duke and Kennesaw State each overachieved pretty dramatically while winning the ACC and Conference USA, respectively, and despite extreme misfortune in the loss to Oklahoma, Alabama’s second-order win total of 9.4 doesn’t really paint a playoff-worthy picture. But the most noteworthy team in the table above has to be the last one. Arkansas lost four games with a postgame win expectancy of at least 62% in 2025 and finished 2-10 with losses by scores of 23-22, 32-31, 34-31, 45-42, 38-35 and 41-35. Heading into the final game of the season, the Hogs were 2-9 with a positive scoring margin! Even by college football’s standards of dumb randomness, that’s pretty impressive. And it probably hints at a much better performance, in the win column, in 2026.
Injuries and general shuffling
Injuries are hard to define in college football — coaches are frequently canny in the information they do and do not provide, and with so many teams in FBS, it’s impossible to derive accurate data regarding how many games were missed because of injury.
What I found last season, however, is that we can glean quite a bit from starting lineups. Teams with lineups that barely changed throughout the season were probably pretty happy with their overall results, while teams with ever-changing lineups likely succumbed to lots of losses. By looking at the ratio of (a) the number of players who either started every game or started all but one for a given team to (b) the number of players who started only one or two games, likely as a stopgap, we can derive quite a bit of information. Sure, coaches on bad teams are more likely to experiment with their lineups, injuries or no injuries. But if your lineup was a little too stable last season, it probably won’t be in 2026. (Unless you’re Curt Cignetti and you’ve eliminated all randomness, of course.)
Using the ratio of (a) to (b) above, 20 teams produced a ratio of 2.0 or better in 2024. They went from 172-92 that year to 162-103 last fall. That’s not as big a shift, obviously — Indiana, Kennesaw State and Virginia managed to keep their lineups relatively stable and surge in 2025 regardless (in part due to the close-game fortune we saw above). But Penn State, Sam Houston, Army, Memphis and Kansas State were among the teams that saw their lineups shaken up far more in 2025, and they all fell short of their preseason goals.
Meanwhile, eight teams finished with a ratio of 0.50 or worse in 2024. They went from a combined 31-56 to 49-39 in 2025, an average improvement of 2.3 wins per team. Sure, teams like Florida and Middle Tennessee couldn’t really take advantage of more stable lineups, but Oklahoma, North Texas and Utah were all at the bottom of the lineup stability list in 2024 and charged from a combined 17-21 to 33-7 last fall. And somehow Kent State leaped from 0-12 to 5-7 despite remaining near the bottom of the lineup stability table.
The top 20 teams above had a combined win percentage of 0.711. The bottom 16 were at 0.297. That likely isn’t a coincidence.
Again, bad teams are more likely to have shuffled lineups in general, but it’s probably noteworthy that among the 24 teams with a 0.75 ratio or worse, only six won at least eight games (Boise State, Iowa State, Jacksonville State, Louisiana Tech, Missouri and New Mexico), and among the 43 teams with a ratio under 1.0, only Texas won 10 or more games.
Major turnaround candidates
There are plenty of teams that ranked high in one of the tables above and low in another. And there are teams like Indiana, which managed to somehow rank in the top 10 in each table. We’ll see if Cignetti has solved the sport or (far more likely) there’s some harsh regression-to-the-mean in Indiana’s future. But there is some hope, at least for six teams.
The six teams below ranked 90th or worse in all three categories above and rank at least in the top 100 in returning production this fall. They fell from a combined 44-31 in 2024 to 22-51 in 2025, and it appears they had quite a bit of poor fortune dragging them down along the way. That will likely reverse itself to some degree in 2026.
Boston College. I really liked what Bill O’Brien did in his debut season at BC in 2024, but the Eagles plummeted from 7-6 to 2-10 last fall. He had no quarterback and no luck. There’s no guarantee that the former will be fixed in 2026 — the most likely starting QB is either Division II transfer Mason McKenzie (Saginaw Valley State) or redshirt freshman transfer Grayson Wilson (Arkansas) — but more stability and a couple more bounces will help.
Colorado. By my count, Deion Sanders brought in transfers who combined for 182 starts in 2025, the third-highest tally of any team (behind two other disappointing Big 12 teams, West Virginia and Oklahoma State). He might have given new offensive coordinator Brennan Marion what he needs for a solid offensive turnaround in 2026, and if fortune flips as well, the Buffaloes could surprise.
Liberty. After going 21-5 in his first two seasons, Jamey Chadwell’s Flames crumpled to 4-8 last fall. The offense is undergoing a massive facelift, with a new coordinator (Newland Isaac) and 17 new transfers, but a little bit of luck and stability would go a long way, too.
UL Monroe. After a promising 5-7 debut in 2024, Bryant Vincent’s second season was a 3-9 disaster. ULM fell right back into the 130s in SP+, and the Warhawks finished on an eight-game losing streak as the lineup dissolved. This is always a hard job, but it was a little harder than normal in 2025.
Missouri. The Tigers are easily the best team on this list, and they fell only from 10-3 to 8-5 last fall despite ranking 95th in turnover luck, 102nd in second-order win difference and 111th in lineup stability. New quarterback Austin Simmons‘ development will determine the Tigers’ fate in the crowded SEC, but simply neutral luck will help, too.
Oregon State. Never mind ranking 90th or worse in these three categories — the Beavers were 117th or worse in each while falling to 2-10. They rank only 94th in returning production, and the transition under new coach JaMarcus Shephard is a massive one, but no team in the country more thoroughly deserves a few decent breaks this coming fall.
JOHANNESBURG — South African anti-graft investigators have arrested 12 senior police officers on allegations of corruption and fraud, prosecutors said Wednesday.
The officers appeared later in a court in the capital, Pretoria.
The arrests come while an inquiry continues into allegations of high-ranking corruption in the South African police. The inquiry was ordered by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who also suspended the police minister last year.
A second inquiry by Parliament is also looking at claims that senior police officers had corrupt relationships with alleged crime bosses and in some cases allegedly received money from them for favors.
The arrest of the 12 officers relates to an allegedly corrupt contract to provide health and wellbeing services to police officers, the National Prosecuting Authority’s anti-corruption investigative unit said in a statement. It said a 13th person, the director of a company, was also arrested.
