The men’s and women’s basketball selection committees revealed on Sunday the teams that will compete in the NCAA Division I basketball tournament – marking the beginning of the single-elimination, six-round competition.It also marks the start of many casual viewers and die-hard fans filling out their brackets, hoping to accurately pick the teams that will advance in the tournament and hoist the 2026 trophy. Just how hard is it to predict all the winners correctly? The odds are about one in 9.2 quintillion.”It’s March Madness, and you never know when skill will be overtaken by psychology because there’s a lot of pressure,” said Tim Chartier, a professor of mathematics and computer science at Davidson College.Chartier specializes in data and sports analytics, particularly ranking systems. He teaches students how to develop mathematical formulas and models to predict winners using bracketology and ranking methods. Chartier and his students analyzed the performance of 350 teams across 5,000 games. This year, they ran various models to predict the winners.After running the numbers, here’s who they predict will move on in the men’s and women’s tournaments. Final FourLast year, all No. 1 seeds for the men’s division reached the Final Four. It was the second time in tournament history that happened. The last time all No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four was in 2008, when Kansas, North Carolina, Memphis and UCLA made history by doing so. Chartier predicts all No. 1 seeds – Duke, Florida, Michigan and Arizona – will reach the Final Four again. But other models show Illinois could make it to the Final Four. The NCAA Division I women’s basketball tournament expanded to a 64-team format in 1994, nine years after the men’s tournament adopted the same structure.Since the expansion, there have been 31 championships and 124 Final Four appearances, with at least one No. 1 seed reaching the Final Four each year. That differs from the men’s tournament, where no No. 1 seed reached the Final Four in 2006, 2011 and 2023.Chartier also predicts all the No. 1 seeds will reach the Final Four for the women’s tournament as well. Likely upsetsBecause of NIL and the transfer portal, predicting the upsets in the first round for this year’s tournament was more difficult than usual for Chartier. His models showed there might not be as much madness during the early rounds. He did flag two potential upsets to keep an eye on: South Florida over Louisville and VCU over North Carolina. While the men’s tournament tends to see upsets in the different matchups, the women’s tournament mostly sees upsets in 8-9 matchups. Champion As for the men’s championship, Chartier predicts Duke and Arizona will tip off in the final game. His model favors Duke winning it all. For the women’s tournament, he thinks UConn and UCLA will make it to the championship game, with UConn winning the entire tournament. The first round for the 2026 NCAA men’s Division I basketball tournament begins on March 19, and the women’s tournament tips off on March 20. PHNjcmlwdCB0eXBlPSJ0ZXh0L2phdmFzY3JpcHQiPiFmdW5jdGlvbigpeyJ1c2Ugc3RyaWN0Ijt3aW5kb3cuYWRkRXZlbnRMaXN0ZW5lcigibWVzc2FnZSIsKGZ1bmN0aW9uKGUpe2lmKHZvaWQgMCE9PWUuZGF0YVsiZGF0YXdyYXBwZXItaGVpZ2h0Il0pe3ZhciB0PWRvY3VtZW50LnF1ZXJ5U2VsZWN0b3JBbGwoImlmcmFtZSIpO2Zvcih2YXIgYSBpbiBlLmRhdGFbImRhdGF3cmFwcGVyLWhlaWdodCJdKWZvcih2YXIgcj0wO3I8dC5sZW5ndGg7cisrKXtpZih0W3JdLmNvbnRlbnRXaW5kb3c9PT1lLnNvdXJjZSl0W3JdLnN0eWxlLmhlaWdodD1lLmRhdGFbImRhdGF3cmFwcGVyLWhlaWdodCJdW2FdKyJweCJ9fX0pKX0oKTs8L3NjcmlwdD4=
The men’s and women’s basketball selection committees revealed on Sunday the teams that will compete in the NCAA Division I basketball tournament – marking the beginning of the single-elimination, six-round competition.
It also marks the start of many casual viewers and die-hard fans filling out their brackets, hoping to accurately pick the teams that will advance in the tournament and hoist the 2026 trophy.
Just how hard is it to predict all the winners correctly? The odds are about one in 9.2 quintillion.
“It’s March Madness, and you never know when skill will be overtaken by psychology because there’s a lot of pressure,” said Tim Chartier, a professor of mathematics and computer science at Davidson College.
Chartier specializes in data and sports analytics, particularly ranking systems. He teaches students how to develop mathematical formulas and models to predict winners using bracketology and ranking methods.
Chartier and his students analyzed the performance of 350 teams across 5,000 games. This year, they ran various models to predict the winners.
After running the numbers, here’s who they predict will move on in the men’s and women’s tournaments.
Final Four
Last year, all No. 1 seeds for the men’s division reached the Final Four. It was the second time in tournament history that happened. The last time all No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four was in 2008, when Kansas, North Carolina, Memphis and UCLA made history by doing so.
Chartier predicts all No. 1 seeds – Duke, Florida, Michigan and Arizona – will reach the Final Four again. But other models show Illinois could make it to the Final Four.
The NCAA Division I women’s basketball tournament expanded to a 64-team format in 1994, nine years after the men’s tournament adopted the same structure.
Since the expansion, there have been 31 championships and 124 Final Four appearances, with at least one No. 1 seed reaching the Final Four each year. That differs from the men’s tournament, where no No. 1 seed reached the Final Four in 2006, 2011 and 2023.
Chartier also predicts all the No. 1 seeds will reach the Final Four for the women’s tournament as well.
Likely upsets
Because of NIL and the transfer portal, predicting the upsets in the first round for this year’s tournament was more difficult than usual for Chartier. His models showed there might not be as much madness during the early rounds.
He did flag two potential upsets to keep an eye on: South Florida over Louisville and VCU over North Carolina.
While the men’s tournament tends to see upsets in the different matchups, the women’s tournament mostly sees upsets in 8-9 matchups.
Champion
As for the men’s championship, Chartier predicts Duke and Arizona will tip off in the final game. His model favors Duke winning it all.
For the women’s tournament, he thinks UConn and UCLA will make it to the championship game, with UConn winning the entire tournament.
The first round for the 2026 NCAA men’s Division I basketball tournament begins on March 19, and the women’s tournament tips off on March 20.
