In the Week 4 edition of “Monday Night Football,” the New Orleans Saints host the Atlanta Falcons.
New Orleans is coming off a loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last week that dropped the Saints to 1-2. The Saints turned the ball over four times in the game and were carved up by Kirk Cousins and Brock Bowers on the other side of the ball. New Orleans lost running back Travis Etienne to injured reserve in that game as well. The Saints are now looking to rebound at home.
Atlanta is coming off its first win of the season, a destruction of the Green Bay Packers in Michael Penix Jr.’s first start of the year. Both Bijan Robinson and Drake London went completely berserk in Green Bay, with 194 yards on the ground and through the air, respectively. The Falcons are not looking to get back to .500 after a dreadful start to the year, with Cooper Rush filling in under center.
Will the Saints bounce back, or will the Falcons make it two in a row? We’ll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here’s a look at how you can watch the game.
Where to watch Saints vs. Falcons live
When the Falcons have the ball
The Falcons didn’t make a single trip into the red zone in their first two games of the season, and they totaled just 524 yards in those two contests. They then came out in Week 3 and absolutely stomped on the Green Bay defense, piling up 498 yards on “Thursday Night Football” — 256 through the air and 242 on the ground. They did all that while bouncing back from a game-opening interception by Michael Penix Jr., who was making his first start of the year after returning from his latest knee injury.
The New Orleans defense, meanwhile, has been lit up for over 30 points in two of its three games this season — 31 by the Lions and 35 by the Raiders. The Saints, though, held the Ravens to 17 points in the other game and have dealt with poor opponents’ field position in the two games where they got tagged, thanks to a combined seven turnovers by the offense. New Orleans’ opponents have begun their average drive on the 34.8-yard line, the third-closest to the end zone of any team in the league.
The most fascinating matchup to watch in this one might be the one between Falcons wideout Drake London and Saints cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry. London had just six catches for 80 yards through the first two games of the season with Cooper Rush under center, but he went off for nine catches and 194 yards against Green Bay last week. London has a monster target share in games where Penix has started, and he is clearly the top target for the lefty signal-caller.
McKinstry isn’t a corner who just plays one side of the field; his snaps have been split just about equally between left and right cornerback, and I’d probably expect him to follow London whenever he lines up on the perimeter. The Falcons would do well to get London lined up in the slot more often than usual, because McKinstry has yet to play a snap in the slot this season, per Pro Football Focus. Shifting London inside would yield more advantageous matchups.
Of course, Atlanta’s offense is still based around Bijan Robinson in the backfield. Robinson is averaging a career-best 5.3 yards per carry this season, thanks in large part to his 29 carries for 194 yards and two touchdowns a week ago. The Falcons have been clocked for an average of 4.7 yards per carry on running-back runs, according to Tru Media, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL.
When the Saints have the ball
Tyler Shough led the NFL in completions through the first three weeks of the year. Shough is 91 of 132 (68.9%) for 917 yards (6.9 per attempt), eight touchdowns and three interceptions so far. He’s done most of his work in second halves as the Saints have worked to come back from deficits: he’s just 32 of 53 for 278 yards, two touchdowns and an interception before the break, while he’s 59 of 79 for 639 yards, six touchdowns and two picks after it.
The Falcons rank a surprising first in the league in pressure rate so far this season, generating a sack, hit or hurry on 45.2% of opponent dropbacks, per Tru Media. They were expected to have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL coming into the year in the absence of both Jalon Walker (injury) and James Pearce Jr. (suspension), but instead, guys like Gervon Dexter (10), Brandon Dorlus (eight), Cameron Thomas (eight) and Samson Ebukam (seven) have been getting after it up front.
The Saints haven’t had much in the way of success running the ball, and will be without Travis Etienne hereafter, as he went on injured reserve. Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller are expected to share the load in the backfield with Etienne out, though CJ Donaldson could mix in as well. Kamara has been extremely inefficient on the ground for several years now, but he’s at least a threat as a pass-catcher. Miller has only 140 carries in his career and has averaged south of 4.0 yards per attempt.
Prediction
The Falcons looked much improved last week against the Packers, thanks in large part to the return of Michael Penix Jr. They hadn’t even entered the red zone through the first two weeks of the season, then dropped 35 points on the Packers in Week 3. The Saints, meanwhile, could conceivably be 3-0 right now if not for backbreaking turnovers. They have two one-possession losses, both in games where they turned it over at least three times. If they can avoid giving the ball to the Falcons, I think they can win a close one here.
Prediction: Saints 23, Falcons 20
