In the Week 7 edition of “Monday Night Football,” the Philadelphia Eagles play host to the division rival Dallas Cowboys.
Philadelphia has lost four consecutive games after starting the season 2-0, and enters this game ravaged by injuries. Not only is Jalen Hurts out in the wake of blood clots being found in his calf and lungs, but DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks, Nolan Smith and more will also miss the game, while Saquon Barkley, Landon Dickerson, Jonathan Greenard and Jalyx Hunt are all questionable.
Dallas has lost back-to-back games in dispiriting fashion, with its offense sputtering at the worst possible time, combining for 29 points against the Buccaneers and Packers after scoring 30-plus in each of the previous three games. The defense was already under fire early in the season, and now the Cowboys have questions on the side of the ball where they were supposed to be elite.
Which of these two teams will stop their losing skid? We’ll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here’s a look at how you can watch the game.
Where to watch Eagles vs. Cowboys live
When the Cowboys have the ball
Dallas has struggled badly on offense over the last two weeks. The Cowboys did total over 300 yards against both the Buccaneers and the Packers, but those totals are misleading. They were entirely unable to deal with blitzes for essentially all of both contests, and that failure brutally undermined their passing attack. (Dak Prescott, typically excellent against blitzing defenses, went just 20 of 38 for 194 scoreless yards when confronting extra rushers in those games.) They also ran the ball for a mere 98 yards combined in those two games, despite the fact that star guard Tyler Smith returned to the fold.
The struggles came a bit as a surprise considering the Cowboys had previously been cooking offensively, racking up yardage and points through the first four weeks of the season. But both Todd Bowles and Jonathan Gannon came out with a plan that toyed with Dallas’ protection rules up front, and the Cowboys found themselves unable to respond. They’ll need a significantly better plan on Monday night, but it’s notable that the Eagles blitz far less often than the Bucs and Packers did against the Cowboys.
The Bucs and Packers sent extra rushers after Prescott on 38.8% of his dropbacks in Weeks 5 and 6, per Tru Media. The Eagles have blitzed just 24.1% of the time so far – the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL. Vic Fangio would have to significantly depart from his modus operandi for Philadelphia to employ a strategy similar to the one that dominated Dallas over the last two weeks. For what it’s worth, Philly has blitzed on at least 38% of opponent dropbacks just once since Fangio became the team’s defensive coordinator. It would be wildly out of character to break out such a strategy here – but it’s one worth pursuing considering Dallas’ struggles.
Philly checks in 20th in opponents’ EPA per dropback, according to Tru Media, allowing opponents to complete only 60.4% of passes at an average of 7.0 yards per attempt, but giving up eight touchdown passes against just three interceptions and being helped along by 14 opponent drops – second-most in the league.
Cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell, Riq Woolen and Cooper DeJean are tough to beat, but they have also been asked to cover for too long on some dropbacks because of the Eagles’ inability to generate pressure. Philly has gotten a sack, hit or hurry on only 32.9% of opponent dropbacks, and they rank below-average in both average time to pressure and average time to throw. Quarterbacks, in other words, have been fairly comfortable in the pocket. And if you let Prescott get comfortable in the pocket, he can pick you apart with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, among his other targets.
The Cowboys seem highly unlikely to find success running the ball, which they haven’t done all year. Javonte Williams has seven rushing touchdowns, but he’s also averaging only 3.7 yards per carry, down considerably from his 4.8 average last season. The offensive line is not clearing rushing lanes for him, and he’s not making anybody miss to make up for it. It’s a brutal combination, and with Philly allowing only 4.0 yards per carry, it’s not an advantageous one here.
When the Eagles have the ball
The Eagles enter this game just about as banged up as possible on offense. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is out. His top two receivers, DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks, are also out. Guard Landon Dickerson remains on injured reserve, though he has been designated to return and listed as questionable for this game. Running back Saquon Barkley is questionable as well, and his top two backups — Tank Bigsby and Will Shipley — are on injured reserve.
Without Hurts under center last week, the Eagles operated with a pass-heavy bent. Tanner McKee dropped back to throw 48 times, and while some of that was due to game script and some of it due to Barkley’s absence, it’s worth noting that he had previously made two Week 18 starts and dropped back to pass an average of 44 times in those games as well. The Eagles can’t use the quarterback run game with McKee under center like they can with Hurts, and the rest of their run-game efficiency is likely to suffer as a result of not presenting that threat to the defense. It’s somewhat reasonable to expect them to be pass-heavier than we’re used to here.
That may not be the case if Barkley returns to the lineup, but it is at least somewhat difficult to parse what the Eagles would prefer to do in that situation. Barkley has actually averaged 5.5 yards per carry in each of the two games he’s made it through healthy this season. The problem is that the rest of the backs have been extremely inefficient in his absence and he wasn’t efficient before leaving the other two games due to injury, either. He fully practiced on Friday for the first time since his hamstring injury, but the team may not want to load him up with too many touches in his first game back in the fold.
Every team that is humanly capable of running the football (i.e., not the Texans or Packers) has done so at will against the Cowboys this season, with Dallas’ other five opponents each piling up at least 165 yards on the ground. Opponents have clipped the Cowboys for 4.7 yards per carry, with running backs and quarterbacks alike able to find considerable room to run against a disappointingly friendly Dallas front. If the Eagles can get Barkley (or Dameon Pierce) going early, they might be able to lean on the Cowboys and prevent the game from turning into the kind of track meet that Dallas’ offense would prefer.
Opponents have also generally been able to throw all over the Cowboys, though it will obviously be difficult for the Eagles to do so while down their top two receivers and multiple of their expected starting offensive linemen. It’ll be Makai Lemon, Darius Cooper and Dallas Goedert as McKee’s top targets here. It’ll be interesting to see if the Cowboys send Joey Porter Jr. to follow one of Cooper (who plays outside) or Lemon (usually in the slot, where he would match up more often with Caleb Downs), as well as how they align their secondary now that Cobie Durant is set to return and potentially push the struggling (to say it kindly) Daron Bland to the bench.
If the Cowboys can put any semblance of pressure on McKee, he could struggle badly. He’s just 16 of 45 for 179 scoreless yards in his career when under duress, with a 15.1% sack rate as well. The Cowboys don’t rush the passer particularly well, but with the current state of Philly’s offensive line, that could change on Monday night.
Prediction
I just don’t think the Cowboys should be favored by more than a field goal against anybody right now, given how they’re playing on both sides of the ball. I’ll take Dallas to win given the state of the Eagles’ offense, but I can’t see the Cowboys blowing anyone out in their current state.
Prediction: Cowboys 24, Eagles 20
