Manchester City have lodged their appeal against an independent commission’s guilty verdict of all charges related to serious breaches of the Premier League’s financial rules over a nine-season period, and the waiting game now begins again for the final outcome of investigation.
But the judgment of the independent panel — made of up of judges and independent financial and legal experts — which was published on Sept. 29, 21 months after the culmination of a 12-week hearing, marked the end of the beginning of an investigative process dating back to 2019.
The appeal process heralds the beginning of the end, and sources have told ESPN that a timescale is in place for City’s fate — guilty or innocent — to be resolved by the end of this season.
The club, which continue to protest their innocence citing “irrefutable evidence,” could yet take the case beyond sporting regulatory bodies to the High Court in the United Kingdom if the appeal fails and they can prove serious irregularities in the Premier League’s disciplinary process.
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But now that City’s appeal has been set in motion, both the club and Premier League are approaching the end of a long and difficult road. So what happens next? When will this all be over and what are the sanctions that City could face?
The appeal process
Man City had 14 days after being officially informed of the verdict of the independent commission to serve notice of their decision to appeal. The club did so on Oct 2. A new three-person independent panel, appointed by Sir Gary Hickinbottom (High Court judge and former UK Lord Justice of Appeal), will be formed as an Appeal Board to review the case.
In Premier League regulations, under Section W of the Premier League Handbook, Appeal Boards must have three members, one of whom should have held judicial office (a judge) and would sit as the chair of the Appeal Board.
The appeal process must be concluded within 12 weeks of the appeal being lodged. If the full 12 weeks are required to hear City’s case, it would have to finish by Dec. 25 and the panel must deliver its verdict, according to Premier League regulation W.95, “within 30 days of the final day of the appeal hearing.”
This is where the timescale gets tricky. The Christmas and New Year period will signal a two-week holiday shutdown of the legal process, so if the 30-day clock began on Jan 8, the three-person panel would have until Feb. 8 to announce its verdict.
However, an appeal is not certain. The Appeal Board, as per regulation W.96, must initially decide whether to allow the appeal or dismiss it, but even if City’s grounds for appeal are regarded as flimsy, it is unlikely that they would have it rejected due to the magnitude of the case.
The sanctions hearing
The original independent panel will meet to decide on the sanctions that should be applied to City. This process will be separate from the Appeal Board, but while there is no official timescale, sources said that it will likely run parallel to the appeal to ensure a swift application of penalties in the event of City failing to win their appeal.
As a result, we should have a final verdict and the application of sanctions by mid-February at the latest.
So what are the possible sanctions?
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These are explained in section W.64 of the Premier League Handbook, ranging from a reprimand (W64.1) to the ultimate sanction of expulsion from the Premier League (W64.4.4 — yes, there are four sub-clauses attached to sub-clause 64.4).
W.64.2 allows for an “unlimited fine,” W.64.4.2 applies to points deductions, while W.64.7 allows for the commission to “impose upon the Respondent (City) any combination of the foregoing or such other penalty as it shall think fit.” If the commission decides that City should be expelled from the Premier League, the 20 member clubs would vote on whether to accept the sanction and it would require a minimum of fifteen clubs to vote “yes.”
A key thing to note: the commission decides on the sanction and the clubs must ratify it, as opposed to the clubs sitting around a table to decide the sanction.
Is expulsion from the Premier League really likely?
First of all, if City’s guilt is upheld by the Appeal Board, a massive fine will be one of the part sanction. Sources have told ESPN that it could be as high as £500 million due to the prolonged natured of the rule-breaking — Premier League CEO Richard Masters said in the league’s statement that City had “systematically broken the rules for nearly a decade.”
Neither City nor the Premier League have commented to ESPN about the case and potential sanctions. As for expulsion, club sources within the Premier League and EFL (English Football League, which governs the English Championship, League One and League Two) have told ESPN that they expect City to be outside the top division as a consequence of the findings if their guilt is upheld.
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The clean option would be to issue a points deduction so big — at least 60 points — that it would be impossible for City to avoid relegation to the Championship. But many within the game do not believe a one-tier relegation would be enough for City’s rule-breaking, and that opens up the door to expulsion.
If City are kicked out of the Premier League, they would have to apply to join the EFL, and that would mean starting again in League Two. If the EFL rejected City, the next step would be the National League and all the way down until the bottom level of the English football pyramid at Tier 9.
This would be the nightmare scenario for City. Tier 9 would see them playing in the North-West Counties Football League First Division (North) against teams like Uppermill, Squires Gate and Maine Road FC — a Manchester-based team, named after City’s previous stadium, formed by City supporters in 1955.
ESPN visited Maine Road this week to assess the prospects of City starting out so far down the pyramid, but the lack of infrastructure and facilities would make it a non-starter. due to teams and grounds at that level being ill-equipped to deal with a game against a club with such a large fanbase.
Sources have told ESPN, however, that City, who had a season in League One as recently as 1998-99, would almost certainly be accepted into the EFL by a large majority of its 72 teams.
“The commercial directors in the EFL will be delighted by the prospect of a home game against City and the financial windfall that would bring,” an EFL Championship club official told ESPN. “Every team and the EFL as a whole would get a financial and profile boost from having City involved, so I’m certain they would be voted into the league.
“It would be a fairly easy thing to do. Have two teams relegated from the Premier League, drop City into League Two and then adjust the promotion and relegation numbers in the EFL as required.”
All 72 EFL clubs are due to meet on Oct. 22 for a preplanned summit, but according to the Championship source, “having City in the EFL will be a big topic of conversation.”
After the sanctions, will there be another appeal?
Yes. If City’s appeal fails and they are hit with a raft of punitive sanctions by the commission, they will be able to appeal against the punishments imposed. Everton had a 10-point penalty for breaching Premier League regulations reduced to six on appeal in February 2024, while Leicester City (April 2026) and Nottingham Forest (May 2024) both failed to overturn points deductions on appeal.
City would have another two-week period after being sanctioned to lodge an appeal and the process would start again — a 12-week hearing and a 30-day period for the panel to announce its findings.
Let’s say that Feb. 8 proves to be the day City get their sanctions; they would have to lodge an appeal against sanctions by Feb. 22. If an appeal process lasted the full 12 weeks, it would not conclude until May 17, just 13 days before the Premier League finishes on May 30. A 30-day period for the panel to announce its verdict would take the process beyond the end of the season — potentially as late as June 17.
ESPN contacted the Premier League to ask whether a final sanction, issued in mid-June after the end of the league season, would apply to the 2026-27 season or held over until the 2027-28 season. But the league declined to comment beyond saying that the process is “private and confidential.”
So, the clock is ticking. Due to the less-detailed nature of an appeal process against any possible sanction, it could run shorter than the appeal against the commission’s findings, but the Premier League vs. Manchester City battle has run for seven years and is entering an eighth.
While the end is in sight, nobody can say for certain whether it will end this season or next.
