What to expect from Zay Flowers with Tyler Huntley starting

It is no hyperbole to say that Zay Flowers has been one of the very best wide receivers in football this season. HIs 39.3% target per route run rate leads all receivers and is three points higher than Jaxon Smith-Njigba. His 6.29 yards per route run is two full yards better than Smith-Njigba and probably three yards better than any number you could reasonably expect a receiver to post over a full season. His 22.4 Fantasy points per game mark is sixth-best despite the fact that Week 4 was the first time this season he has played more than 33% of the offensive snaps. Now that he’s fully healthy, we shouldn’t even be discussing him; he should just be an obvious start. But, unfortunately, Lamar Jackson has an ankle injury, and Tyler Huntley is projected to start Week 5.

Huntley has made 16 starts in his NFL career and has averaged 156.9 passing yards per game. He has 10 passing touchdowns and nine interceptions in those 16 starts. When all of the player props are out for the week, he will quite likely have the lowest projected passing yards. This is not exactly the offensive environment that produces top-20 wide receivers, much less top-5 options. 

Trying to build a projection around it isn’t easy, but if we expect Huntley to throw 26 passes, and Flowers to be targeted on 30% of them, then you get a projection of eight targets. Huntley has completed 64.5% of his passes as a starter, so let’s assume five catches. This year, Flowers has accounted for 49.6% of the Ravens’ receiving yards when he’s on the field; last year, it was 39.7%. If you split the difference, you get a yardage projection of 70 yards. Five catches for 70 yards with a mediocre chance at a touchdown is probably as good a guess as one could make, which makes Flowers a WR2 this week. In other words, you probably aren’t getting the elite production you have so far, but you don’t have to run away from him, even with Huntley at QB.

Here is the rest of the Week 5 WR preview:

Week 5 WR Preview

• 488 — DK Metcalf has received 488 targeted air yards, the fourth-highest mark in the league. He’s improved his production the past two weeks and looks like a low-end WR2.
• 4.02 — Drake London is averaging 4.02 yards per route run. Only Zay Flowers and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have been better.
• 31.5% — CeeDee Lamb has a 31.5% target share, leaving just 19.4% for George Pickens. If this continues, Pickens is a boom/bust WR3.
• 22.4% — Keon Coleman has a 22.4% target share when DJ Moore is not on the field. We are not projecting Moore to play in Week 5.
• 9 — Michael Wilson has nine red zone targets this season. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are the only receivers with more.
• 17.4 — Denzel Boston has an aDOT of 17.4. It is hard to be a consistent receiver with that profile, but it can lead to big weeks.
• 70.8% — Mike Evans‘ 70.8% catch rate would be a career best.
• 44 — The Texans have given up a league-high 44 PPR Fantasy points per game to receivers this year. At some point, this is just who they are.

My full set of Week 5 Fantasy football projections for every position is now available here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don’t live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 5. Projected stats for all starting wide receivers are updated throughout the week, so make sure you check back in later in the week for changes.