Week 8 overreactions: Time for Vikings to bench Kyler Murray? Colts should fire Steichen?

For much of the first seven weeks of the season, the predominant question around the Minnesota Vikings was: “Can they really keep winning this way?”

And the answer was yes, six times over. Sure, Minnesota’s 10 touchdowns were the fewest by any 6-0 team in more than 100 years, but wins are wins, and Minnesota was stacking them.

This week, that ended. The Lions grounded out an impressive 19-15 win, a crucial result in the cutthroat NFC North. Jahmyr Gibbs had 168 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown, and Jared Goff gutted through a tough day overall to throw the game-winning touchdown to Jameson Williams.

There were major, uncomfortable questions during the Vikings’ winning streak. Those questions just came to the forefront even more with a loss, and the Vikings must find answers immediately. The most important question revolves around the most important position.

Vikings should bench Kyler Murray

Overreaction or reality: Reality

I gave Murray a lot of grace early this year. He was on a new team and in a new system. He suffered a concussion moments into his Vikings debut. It was about as inauspicious a start as possible, and even as he struggled after he returned, I was willing to give him some time to figure it out.

That time is over. Murray was dreadful again Sunday: 17-for-29 for 210 yards, one touchdown and one interception, with three sacks taken. He also ran four times for 35 yards, which was a team high (more on that in a bit). His touchdown pass was a miraculous Justin Jefferson catch.

But Murray was so wildly inaccurate that he often didn’t even give his teammates chances to make otherworldly catches or routine catches. According to TruMedia, five of Murray’s 29 passes (17.2%) were off-target. He missed Jefferson up the seam on what would have been a touchdown. He missed Jefferson on a rollout, firing the ball several feet above his superstar wide receiver. He dirtied a ball when Jefferson was open on a slant, a play that left Jefferson shrugging as if to say, “What happened?”

Then, there are far too many throws that have an extremely low likelihood of being completed anyway. He throws a ton of perimeter passes that are 50/50 balls at best, and usually, they’re closer to 10/90 balls because Murray is so inaccurate on those, too.

He also rarely finds or takes easy answers. His 3.20 average time to throw is by far the highest of his career, even though he is also having the slowest time to pressure this season. Only three players — Caleb Williams, Malik Willis and Drake Maye — have a longer time to throw, on average. But Murray isn’t the playmaker or physical force Williams or Maye are.

It’s a huge surprise to see Murray play this poorly. Even at his worst in Arizona, he was an average or slightly below average quarterback by most metrics. But this season, he has been so much worse than he’s ever been.

Murray’s mobility and pocket management have declined, too. He can still move as a runner, but his sack rate and sack-to-pressure rates are way up.

Simply put, it’s time for the Vikings to look elsewhere, whether that’s in-house (Carson Wentz is the backup) or via a trade. Frustration is bubbling up — Jefferson declined to speak to the media after Sunday’s game — and in his postgame press conference, Kevin O’Connell mentioned multiple missed opportunities.

O’Connell can only do so much, though. Murray hasn’t been close to good enough for a team with a championship-level defense, and Minnesota simply can’t keep the status quo much longer.

Colts need to part ways with Jonathan Taylor, Shane Steichen

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The Colts played one of the worst excuses you’ll see for a football game Sunday, falling to the Jaguars 42-7. Indianapolis’ first-half drive chart was as follows:

• punt
• punt
• punt
• fumble
• punt
• punt
• interception (pick six)
• kneel

Trevor Lawrence threw for 210 yards and three touchdowns on 14 attempts, a ridiculous 15 yards per attempt — the highest rate by any quarterback in any game (min. 10 attempts) in the last two seasons. The Jaguars also averaged 5.5 yards per carry, and only one of their 33 carries went for negative yards.

The offense was similarly embarrassing.

Yes, the Colts traded away Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner this week and fired GM Chris Ballard the week before. Yes, the season has gone off the rails. But the Titans traded Jeffery Simmons this week and took the Bengals to overtime. The Colts, on the other hand, didn’t look interested in playing. This wasn’t acceptable in any way, shape or form, and it falls on Shane Steichen.

Here’s Jonathan Taylor:

Speaking of Taylor, the Colts reportedly aren’t actively shopping him, but not trading him would be a massive mistake. Indianapolis is facing a multi-year rebuild. They have no competent quarterback and likely no way to find one in the draft due to the Sauce Gardner trade. Taylor is reportedly commanding significant offers. The Vikings would be a great fit, as their running game continues to stink.

Indianapolis must move their star running back, and it must move on from Steichen, too. If not, it’s a damning mismanagement by Carlie Irsay-Gordon at an absolutely critical junction early in her ownership.

Browns will never win a regular-season game in Pittsburgh again

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Just kidding! But boy, a 27-6 loss was a rough dose of reality for the Browns, who haven’t won a regular-season game at the Steelers since 2003.

Browns should bench Deshaun Watson

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Speaking of a rough dose of reality for the Browns, Watson was once again pretty poor Sunday. Though the passing box score stats look good (27-for-39, 324 yards), he took eight sacks. He has now taken 22 sacks in his last four games, a completely unsustainable number. This has been an issue throughout his time in Cleveland, and after a better start to the year avoiding sacks, he has fallen back significantly. He has had a negative EPA per play in three of his past four games, too.

But the Browns don’t have a better answer. Shedeur Sanders had major sack problems last year. The offensive line is in rough shape. Watson may be back on his downward trajectory, but Cleveland is still 5-3, and Watson has had some good moments in clutch time. All five of the Browns’ wins are by four points or fewer. Plus, there’s not a better alternative. If there were, Sanders would be starting.

Buccaneers will win the NFC South

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Baker Mayfield did not complete a single pass in the Buccaneers‘ 16-0 win over the Falcons on Sunday, a game played in an absolutely downpour. Let’s take a little history lesson.

• It’s the first time since 1974 a team has won a game without a completion.
• It’s the first time since 1945 a team won a game by double digits without a completion.
• It’s the first time a team has had zero completions and 300+ rushing yards since 1933.

Mayfield only attempted three passes. The week before, he only attempted 11 (completing seven) in a 43-13 domination of the Panthers. Tampa Bay ran for 258 yards in that game.

The Buccaneers cannot win this way forever, clearly. But they don’t have to be that far off. The offensive line has really come together after a rocky start, and Bucky Irving looks absolutely excellent. The bigger factor here is the defense, which held Michael Penix Jr. to 8-for-24 passing for 125 yards and four(!) interceptions.

Penix was absolutely atrocious, but this isn’t a one-off occurrence. Tampa Bay absolutely dominated Carolina with a relentless pass rush the week before, and this defense has been stupendous all season:

• First in EPA per play
• First in turnovers forced
• Second in success rate
• Fifth in yards per play
• Fifth in percentage of plays for 0 or negative yards

It’s not like the bar is that high in the NFC South, and the Buccaneers’ defense is the best single unit in the division. If Mayfield can avoid making multiple back-breaking mistakes per game, the Buccaneers will join the 1992 Chargers as the only teams to make the postseason after starting 0-4.

Bengals can’t win the Super Bowl with this defense

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The Bengals needed a six-touchdown day from Joe Burrow to beat the lowly, Jeffery Simmons-less Titans 43-36 in overtime. It’s a score and a storyline all too familiar for Cincinnati, which has had defensive issues for years.

But even after Sunday’s poor performance, Cincinnati’s defense is only 16th in EPA per play. Why? Well, the Bengals have the third-highest sack rate in the NFL and the fourth-highest rate of 0 or negative yards gained. They are the league’s best fourth-down defense. The defense has forced 11 turnovers, too, a top-10 number.

Listen, it’s not necessarily the way you want to live. The Bengals are 25th in yards per play allowed and 30th in explosive play rate allowed. But this passing offense is truly elite. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both had 10+ catches, 140+ yards and a touchdown, and as I wrote last week, the latter is only getting better.

Plus, the defense has an absolute game-changer in Dexter Lawrence, who has been the best defensive acquisition of the offseason. He saved the game late in regulation.

An elite offense plus a play-making defense? Again, it’s far from perfect, but it might be enough.

Andy Reid blew it

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The Broncos deserve a ton of credit for rallying from a 24-13 deficit in the fourth quarter to beat the Chiefs 28-24. Bo Nix came up clutch, leading touchdown drives on both of Denver’s final two possessions, and the defense had a huge goal-line stand to seal the deal. It was an absolutely crucial win for the Broncos, who are now tied for first in the AFC West, given they had lost to the Chiefs in Week 1.

But this comeback doesn’t happen without the help of Andy Reid. His offense’s final three drives finished as follows: punt, missed field goal, turnover on downs.

The missed field goal and the sequence leading up to it will be the main talking point, but let’s go chronologically. Early in the fourth quarter, up by 11, Patrick Mahomes threw a 5-yard pass to Emmett Johnson on third-and-6. Really, though, Johnson gained almost 5 yards. It set up fourth and inches. According to the CBS broadcast, Reid was upset that the officials took so long to figure out the spot — he thought it was going to be fourth-and-a-full 1 yard, or maybe more — which forced him to punt. Had he known the spot earlier, he might have gone for it.

This is a bad look. Reid should have gone for this regardless. He had Mahomes, his superstar quarterback, playing at a high level. Though the Chiefs did not run the ball well Sunday, all 22 of their rushes to that point had gained at least 1 yard. This is another spot where the Chiefs’ inability to run a quarterback sneak — Mahomes hasn’t attempted one since 2019 — loomed large. Teams must have a way to gain 1 yard, or, in this instance, a few inches, reliably.

But the even worse decision came with just under three minutes left. Up three and facing a third-and-2 at the Denver 30, Reid called an awkward rollout that was immediately stymied. Mahomes took a 6-yard sack — an uncharacteristic and untimely error — to set up fourth-and-8. Then Reid trotted out Harrison Butker for a 54-yard field goal attempt in the rain. He missed (very) wide right.

There are so many issues here:

1. Up three, a field goal helps, but not that much. In fact, if it had gone in, it would have given the Broncos an extra down on their ensuing drive, since they needed a touchdown. Going up six is not a good idea in this scenario.
2. Thus, this should have been four-down teritory. Could Reid have tried a run here? We can’t blame him for Mahomes taking a bad sack, but we can blame him for a poor approach.
3. Butker was 2-for-6 from 50+ yards this year entering that kick. He has proved to be unreliable. It’s an awful decision from a process and an execution standpoint from Reid.

Then late in the game, the Chiefs couldn’t punch it in, and their lack of urgency was befuddling. After Kenneth Walker III got down to the 4-yard line with about a minute left, Walker ran 3 yards on a play with 35 seconds left. Then Kansas City didn’t take a timeout until there were 15 seconds left, making run plays risky and eliminating any room for error. Mahomes threw an incompletion on second down, and Walker went nowhere on third-and-goal. That forced Reid to use his final timeout. The false start pushed it back to the 6, and Mahomes got sacked. A little more urgency would have kept the playbook more wide open.