It’s genuinely hard to tell when a pitcher is just hot compared to when they are truly ascending. It’s especially hard with a pitcher like Cade Cavalli, who has already gone through the hype cycle multiple times this season.
Remember back in late April, Cavalli had consecutive starts with double-digit strikeouts? He followed that up with a 10-start stretch where he put up a mediocre 4.10 ERA and a merely decent 51 strikeouts in 52.2 innings of work, a sure sign it was just a fluke. And, of course, he followed that up with a 13-strikeout gem, only to get chased after just 2.1 innings in his next start, highlighting just how hard it is to actually trust him.
So, I’m not going to say Cavalli needs to be rostered in all leagues after he opened the second half of the season with a nine-strikeout effort against the Athletics in Sacramento Friday. But … he should probably be rostered in all leagues at this point. The ups and downs along the way have been frustrating, but at the end of the day, Cavalli sits on a 3.78 ERA and 26% strikeout rate more than halfway through the season. His peripherals don’t uniformly back it up – the 3.21 FIP is nice, but the 4.13 xERA suggests his struggles aren’t a fluke – and his 1.31 WHIP is frustrating, too, but at the very least, he looks like a useful pitcher with truly impactful ceiling. That’s worth rostering, even if he might never be as good as he looks at his best.
I think the same is likely true of Jared Jones, but man, he’s showing some impressive upside lately. He struck out nine in his own second half debut and now has 23 strikeouts to just three walks in 15 innings over his past three starts. He has managed to carry his 14% swinging strike rate from his rookie season, but has managed to tick the strikeout rate up from 26.2% to 29.4% without increasing his walk rate – no small feat coming off significant elbow surgery.
The biggest thing holding Jones back is his usage. He was limited to just 74 pitches in Friday’s outing, his third straight start with fewer than 80 pitches. That’s especially frustrating because I had hoped the All-Star break might mark the start of the Pirates taking the reins off and letting him pitch deeper into games. If they’re going to limit him to 80 or so pitches every time out, that just puts a ceiling on how valuable Jones can be.
It doesn’t mean he can’t be valuable for Fantasy, nor does it mean he shouldn’t be 100% rostered. He should be, even if his chances of coming away from any given start with a win or quality start is lower than most other pitchers. The strikeout upside here is more than enough to make him worth chasing, especially with how well he is pitching right now.
And if they do decide to fully unleash him at some point? He could have top-24 upside. Here’s who else we’re looking to add ahead of Week 18:
Week 18 Waiver Targets
Catcher
Ryan Jeffers, Twins (73%)
You never quite know how a player is going to return from a hand injury, and in Jeffers’ case, the injury came during the midst of what has been a breakout season, which is especially tough. Well, he had doubles in each of his first two games back and then homered in his third to kick off the second half, so I’d say he’s doing okay. The underlying data largely backs up the breakout and suggests Jeffers can be a top-12 catcher if he stays healthy.
Deep league option: Harry Ford, Nationals (10%) – Ford is not a must-roster catcher, but he has been a pretty notable prospect for a while and homered in his first career game Friday against the A’s. His stolen base production disappeared in Triple-A, which hurts his appeal, but there could be enough juice in his bat to make him a No. 2 catcher in deeper leagues, at least.
First Base
Bryce Eldridge, Giants (71%)
Eldridge’s roster rate has peaked around 70-75%, which would mostly seem to be a testament to how loaded the first base (and, consequently, corner infield) position is these days, because Eldridge has hit .288/.381/.489 since June 1 with a 28-homer pace. The run and RBI totals are lacking in that time, which is why he is only 23rd among first basemen in total Fantasy points since June 1. That’s not elite, but it’s good enough, and if the counting stats start to catch up to the overall production, he absolutely has top-12 upside. You won’t find that on waivers at this time of the season, generally.
Deep league option: Jacob Gonzalez, Pirates (12%) – I thought Gonzalez was a sneaky-good pickup for the Pirates, providing some much-needed pop to help replace Konnor Griffin. The playing time is in question, but if he starts to hit, he definitely has the chance to play his way into an everyday role in this lineup, especially with the flexibility to play all around the infield.
Second Base
Cole Young, Mariners (43%)
The combination of strong contact skills and good enough power has made Young a pretty solid option early in his career. The question is whether there’s another level he can get to. He showed 20-plus steal potential in the minors, so that’s one path to further relevance. Another one would be to just start hitting to his potential – his .314 wOBA for the season is just 14th among second basemen, but his .333 expected wOBA would be sixth. If you’re looking for some upside on the wire, Young is probably your best bet at second base, especially since he’s just 22 and presumably still has some room to grow.
Deep league option: Jake Cronenworth, Padres (8%) – Cronenworth’s 27% strikeout rate in July certainly doesn’t support his .320 batting average, so at some point I suspect he’ll return to irrelevance. But for now he’s getting the job done, including multiple hits in three of his past four games entering play Sunday. As a hot hand play, he’s a useful deep-league add.
Third Base
Kyle Karros, Rockies (54%)
Karros is one of those hitters who looks pretty good, but doesn’t necessarily have a skill set well suited for Fantasy. He hits the ball moderately hard and doesn’t strike out much, but he’s also hitting just .259 with a .255 xBA, which is all pretty underwhelming, for example. However, he’s been closer to .300 since the start of June and is starting to tap into a bit more power in July with four of his nine homers coming since the start of the month. I wish he either had additional positional flexibility or had a game a little more finely tuned for Fantasy impact, but he’s still a pretty interesting and useful option when he’s locked in like this.
Deep league option: Tommy White, Athletics (14%) – Anytime a prospect gets called up to play for the A’s, people are going to take notice, especially when it’s a former big-name collegiate star who was a second-round pick. White hasn’t been nearly as impactful since making the switch to wooden bats as a pro, and as a result he is by no means a must-add player right now – especially with questions about how much he’ll play for the A’s. For now he’s more of a speculative add for deeper leagues, but the circumstances in Sacramento could make White a pretty useful Fantasy option if all goes right.
Shortstop
Cooper Pratt, Brewers (32%)
As was the case during his minor-league career, Pratt hasn’t figured out how to hit for much power, and it may just not be a big part of his skill set. He’s holding his own otherwise, running a 12.4% walk rate with six steals in 26 games while playing good shortstop defense. The .244 batting average takes away potential appeal in categories leagues, but his .291 expected average suggests there’s plenty of room for growth there, and that would be enough to make him a viable starter in any league where average and steals directly count.
Deep league option: Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, Athletics (17%) – I was worried that White’s promotion might cut into Kuroda-Grauer’s playing time, but he has started each of the first three games out of the break, so that doesn’t seem to be an issue. And, of course, he has continued to hit, going 3 for 8 with two doubles, three runs, and two RBI across the first two games. Kuroda-Grauer makes plenty of contact and has some steal upside (15 in 75 games before his promotion), so this could be an interesting add as either a corner or middle infielder in categories leagues.
Outfield
Luis Robert, Mets (68%)
Robert is set to return from his back injury Monday, and it raises some real questions about how the Mets are going to divvy up playing time, because since he last played, both Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing have established themselves as players who absolutely need to be in the lineup everyday. Obviously, so does Juan Soto. That’s not so much of a problem except that Jorge Polanco probably needs to be limited to DH-only duties for the time being due to his numerous lower body injuries, so there is clearly going to have to be an odd man out here. The good news is this is likely only going to be an actual issue for a couple of weeks, either because injuries will happen or because the trade deadline looms and could see either Polanco or Robert (or both!) moved. Which is all to say, if Robert proves worthy of playing everyday, he’ll probably get the chance to eventually. It’s been a while since he was a great hitter, but even during his bad seasons he’s been worth using in Fantasy thanks to his well-rounded skill set. If nothing else, you should get some homers and steals out of him, but the upside here remains high if he can stay healthy and hit like his underlying numbers suggested he should last season. He’s worth adding for that upside alone.
Heriberto Hernandez, Marlins (20%)
Hernandez might just be a pretty solid little hitter. He’s played 156 games since the start of the 2025 season and has a .251/.331/.452 line with 23 homers. The counting stats aren’t great, but it’s worth noting that he has started only 123 of those games – and his pace in those 123 games is 24 homers, 88 RBI, and 77 runs. His underlying data backs it up, with a .347 xwOBA supporting his .339 actual mark for his career, and now he’s getting a chance to really play everyday for the Marlins. He’s worth rostering in most five-outfielder leagues, at least.
Steven Kwan, Guardians (55%)
Kwan’s collapse as a hitter has been sudden and dramatic, but I’m not totally convinced he’s just washed up as a 28-year-old. Of course, it’s a lot easier to say that after seeing him rack up four straight mulit-hit games and hit .447/.533/.605 since the start of July with just three strikeouts in 46 plate appearances. His expected wOBA over the past 100 plate appearances is up to a more than respectable .355 mark, a sign that he’s still got something left in the tank. I’m looking to add Kwan in basically all formats.
Ryan Waldschmidt, Diamondbacks (26%)
We’re still waiting for Waldschmidt to actually do something at the MLB level, so take this one as more of a speculative add than one you can count on to make a big impact for your team right away. Waldschmidt entered the season as a top-50 prospect and has 15 homers and 25 steals in 117 games across Double-A and Triple-A, so the hope here is he can start to tap into that upside at the MLB level soon. He’ll need to make a lot more contact, and with five strikeouts in his first nine plate appearances since coming back from the minors, he’s not off to a great start.
Jake Mangum, Pirates (26%)
With Oneil Cruz moved to the 60-day IL recently, we know he’s going to be out until at least Aug. 8. That means Mangum should remain in the lineup everyday until at least then, and while he has some obvious limitations as a hitter, he’s also hitting .303 with 18 steals in less than everyday opportunities. It’s mostly a two-category contribution (maybe 2.5 given how often he is hitting at the top of the lineup these days), but he could remain pretty impactful in those two categories.
Starting Pitcher
Peter Lambert, Astros (77%)
Lambert may be unlocking some unexpected upside here. He shelved his sweeper for most of the month of June, but when he brought it back at the end of June he was throwing it a couple mph harder and he’s been throwing it more consistently, as it’s up to a 14% usage rate in three July starts, during which time it also has a 45% whiff rate. If that pitch can be a new weapon for him in two-strike counts, maybe the 23 strikeouts in 17.2 innings in July isn’t a fluke. Lambert has been solid for most of the season, but if this strikeout bump is real, he could pitch his way into top-50 consideration.
Roki Sasaki, Dodgers (57%)
“Hey, go add Roki Sasaki” has, admittedly, not actually been good advice this season. Sure, there have been dominant stretches, but none that have proven sustainable. My guess is this one won’t either, fueled as his start Friday was by a 100.1 mph average fastball velocity, the highest of his season by 1.3 ticks. Still, he’s so obviously talented that it’s hard not to fall in love with even the brief flashes we get from him, so if you have the roster spot to play with Sasaki still has upside worth chasing. Even if we know the likeliest outcome is it’ll end in disappointment.
Shane Drohan, Brewers (57%)
We’ve seen some flashes from Drohan, but we’re starting to get some actual upside from him lately, too. Most notably Saturday, as he struck out nine against the Marlins, giving him 24 strikeouts in 24 innings while averaging six innings per start in the month of July. I’m not sure the stuff is dependable enough to keep generating a strikeout or better per innings, but his four-seamer does keep missing bats, with a very healthy 31.6% whiff rate for the season. And look: Betting on Brewers pitchers has been a pretty profitable enterprise lately, hasn’t it?
Jackson Jobe, Tigers (21%)
For now, I just want to get this name back on your radars. Jobe is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, and he began his rehab assignment on July 7 with 32 pitches in Class A. He followed up with three innings in rookie ball, and likely has at least a few more starts left before he is cleared to return to the majors. By that time, it might just be as a bullpen arm if the Tigers are still alive for a playoff spot and don’t have a need for help in the rotation. But if they fall out of the race and trade Tarik Skubal, Jobe could be a factor over the final couple of months of the season, and while he struggled in his first season as a starter in 2025, he remains a very interesting talent who absolutely could make a difference when healthy.
Relief Pitcher
Grant Taylor, White Sox (46%)
Back in June it looked like Taylor might have a chance to emerge as the White Sox’s closer, but he ran into some rare and poorly timed struggles at that exact point, which held his ascension off. He does have two of the past three saves for the White Sox however, so maybe his chance is coming around again. He isn’t working exclusively in the ninth inning, or anything, so it’s too early to say for sure the White Sox are turning to him as the true closer – and they might prefer to keep him available for multi-inning outings as often as possible, which would limit his save opportunities anyway. But he’s clearly the team’s best reliever and is being used exclusively in high-leverage situations, so at worst, you should get great ratios, plenty of strikeouts, and at least a few saves. And if he does start to be used like a traditional closer, he could be one of the 10 or so best for Fantasy.
Luke Weaver, Mets (26%)
This one is truly speculative, but it’s worth taking seriously. The Mets have reportedly declared themselves open for business ahead of the trade deadline, and Weaver looks like maybe their best chip right now. He has closing experience and a 2.03 ERA for the season, so some would-be contender will surely be interested in his services. There’s no guarantee Weaver will end up a closer – a reunion with the Yankees as a set-up man wouldn’t be out of character – but if you’re looking for a bump in saves, he seems like the best bet to provide it.
