Tropical Storm Erin forms in Atlantic just west of Cabo Verde Islands
Hey there, hello again everybody. Meteorologist Jim Dickey back with you for Tropics Talk on this Monday, August 11th. *** busy. Looking map across the Atlantic here this morning and no name storms still that likely won’t last much longer. In fact, by the time you’re watching this, the area in red may already be declared *** tropical depression, if not *** tropical storm. Three areas overall, including that one to watch for development this week. This the same system we’ve been watching uh for the last week or so, Invest 96L low development chance with that, and then another storm system that uh just recently. At the 8 o’clock update here this morning, got the, uh, update, got the, uh, highlighted area from the hurricane center. It’s *** non-tropical low scrolling to the south and east of Nova Scotia. There’s not much we call deep convection with it, thunderstorm activity with it, but when you get *** non-tropical low like this to set up over the Gulf Stream, as this will, you know, always something to watch, then you can make out. Pretty pronounced *** little swirling with 96L as well, but you’re not seeing the thunderstorm activity wrapped around the center to suggest that it is on the verge of becoming *** tropical depression or tropical storm. So 10% development chance with that one, it drifts harmlessly into the central Atlantic. Yeah, there’s still *** chance that could briefly become *** tropical depression. Nothing to worry about out of that and then not too far to the north and west we have that non-tropical low you can see the very pronounced cold front stretches all the way back into the Carolinas attached to it, but yes, this could, much like we saw play out with Dexter going back uh *** week plus. I could, uh, over those warm waters there detach itself from the fronts, maybe *** hybrid type system, perhaps some subtropical development with this, regardless, it’s going to stay offshore, even if it does come together. So two systems that perhaps we get *** name to storm out of that to pad the numbers this year, neither of which any consequence. This is the one we’re going to be keeping *** close eye on. When we talk about deep convection. Look at all the bright colors showing up on the satellite presentation. Heavy thunderstorm activity west of Africa, there’s the Cabo Verde Islands and uh even to the untrained eye, you can probably pick out the uh area in particular we’re watching right there, very well-defined area of thunderstorm activity. You call sort of that central dense overcast too near that concentric circle to the cloud pattern to the thunderstorm activity as it moves west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The hurricane center saying they only need to see *** little more organization out of this before they will pull the trigger and declare this has become *** tropical depression, if not skipping right to tropical storm status. 90% development chance when you see the hurricane center going 90%, it means this is almost certainly going to happen here. Now, of note. In the update that just came in at 8 o’clock this morning, so 10 minutes ago as I record this for you. You’ll note that it no longer has the very long area of red that it did, going back to the last couple of updates. That’s because again, they suspect this will develop sooner rather than later, and then the cone takes over from there, of course, when something does come together. This almost certainly becomes *** named storm likely taking the name Aaron unless something unforeseen goes on with those two areas to the north. And this likely becomes the first hurricane of 2025 as well. These plots show you the various guidance for intensity. Just about everything shows by the time we get to Thursday and Friday that this ramps up to at the very least Category 1 status and then *** number of these models continue to intensify this Category 2 potentially up to *** Category 3 hurricane. Yeah, there’s certainly the potential here. This could be not only the first hurricane but the first major hurricane of 2025. But As we’ve gone over the last 48 hours or so as the models have come in, as this has become *** more defined system that the models can actually latch onto, there’s been some encouraging trends in the models in that the most likely scenario at this point, the favored scenario at this point, just about every model you look at shows this staying north of the Caribbean, #1. And then shows this turning to the north, prior to reaching the Bahamas, prior to reaching the east coast of the United States. You can see just about each and every one of these models here that sharp turn northward before it gets close to the Bahamas. Now is that locked in? No, we still have *** long, long way to go with this, but I’d much rather see the models leaning towards turning this north than all still showing something coming close to the United States as this was going back to last week and we talked about this last week, you know, once we actually get something to move. Off the coast, once we actually get *** system like we have now to find low pressure area that the models can latch on to, then we have *** little more faith in what the models are saying, then you’re going to get less wild swings from model run to model run, and that’s what we’re seeing more consensus in the models, more consistency. In the models and again that favored track shows *** turn to the north. The big steering factor with these systems that come off of Africa is the Bermuda Azores high or the Atlantic Ridge, the high pressure area that stretches from Bermuda to the Azores and it’s positioning changes the strength changes from day to day, week to week across the Atlantic. If we were in *** scenario, this is *** little further to the south and uh fairly strong centered closer to Bermuda, this would be taking *** due westerly course towards the Caribbean, but this was uh true when we were talking about the potential for 96L to form. It’s true now too. The high is fairly weak right now and it’s fairly far to the east. This is by Sunday. So this is the GFS forecast model, which has, by all accounts, *** hurricane north of uh Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, but with that high, centered well off to the east. Remember that these storms tend to ride the fringes of that high pressure area. This would favor *** turn to the north. Now for sure we’ll be watching this for Bermuda and perhaps this is *** little stronger, *** little too close for comfort for parts of the east coast, but at this point, I see little to no evidence that this is going to stay far enough to the south to be an issue for the Gulf. The Gulf Coast states should turn well to the north before it gets to Florida. Again, still plenty of time that we’ll be watching this. I wouldn’t quite place uh all your chips in yet, that’s exactly what’s going to occur. The Most likely scenario at this point is that turn to the north. Yeah, this likely takes the name Erin again. It likely becomes the first hurricane of 2025. Much more to go here. We’re only now entering what is considered the peak of hurricane season. We’ll have plenty more storms to form before all is said and done here this year, that’s for sure. Of course, I promise to you here at Gulf Coast weather, anything and everything out there we’ll be tracking it for you. Until next time, Gulf Coast meteorologist Jim Dickey. Have *** good day.
Tropical Storm Erin forms in Atlantic just west of Cabo Verde Islands
Tropical Storm Erin formed Monday in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, as Hurricane Henriette strengthened in the Pacific Ocean well away from Hawaii, forecasters said.There were no coastal watches or warnings in effect for either storm, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said.Erin was about 280 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, the NHC said. It was moving west at about 20 mph.Gradual strengthening was forecast over the next several days.Hurricane Henriette was a Category 1 storm on Monday. Henriette had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, the NHC said, and was about 525 miles northwest of Honolulu.Additional strengthening was possible Monday, with weakening over the next few days.
Tropical Storm Erin formed Monday in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, as Hurricane Henriette strengthened in the Pacific Ocean well away from Hawaii, forecasters said.
There were no coastal watches or warnings in effect for either storm, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said.
Erin was about 280 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, the NHC said. It was moving west at about 20 mph.
Gradual strengthening was forecast over the next several days.
Hurricane Henriette was a Category 1 storm on Monday. Henriette had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, the NHC said, and was about 525 miles northwest of Honolulu.
Additional strengthening was possible Monday, with weakening over the next few days.
