For the first time in three years, the Tampa Bay Rays are heading to the postseason. The Rays clinched a playoff berth with their 3-1 win over the Astros (box score) on Friday night. They punched their ticket in walk-off fashion, thanks to Junior Caminero’s 40th home run of the season:
They are the first team to clinch a postseason berth this season.
To be clear, the Rays have clinched only a spot in the postseason. They are assured of being no worse than the third wild card team. Tampa will now try to hold off the New York Yankees and win their first AL East title since 2021. The division title will almost certainly come with a Wild Card Series bye, so there is still a lot at stake the rest of the regular season.
The Rays are a top 10 team at preventing runs, though they’re only middle of the pack offensively. Depending on your metric of choice, Tampa is either one of the best defensive teams in baseball (defensive runs saved) or middle of the pack (outs above average). No team in baseball has outperformed its run differential more to date than these Rays.
This will be the Rays’ first postseason appearance since 2023, when they won 99 games but had to settle for second place in the AL East behind the 101-win Baltimore Orioles. The Rays were swept in two games at home by the eventual World Series champion Texas Rangers in the Wild Card Series that year. They have not won a postseason game since 2021.
The Rays have won two AL pennants (2008 and 2020) but are still searching for the franchise’s first World Series championship. Can they get over the hump this season? Here are three reasons the Rays are a threat to win this year’s World Series.
1. Junior Caminero is 1 of 1
Depth wins divisions and stars win championships, and the Rays have a bona fide superstar in third baseman Junior Caminero. He is only the second player in baseball history with multiple 40-homer seasons through age 22, joining Hall of Famer Eddie Mathews, and Caminero gets to that power without excessive swing-and-miss.
This is an impressive plate discipline trend for any young hitter, and especially one with this much power:
|
2024 |
21.5% |
6.2% |
14.1% |
|
2025 |
19.1% |
6.3% |
11.7% |
|
2026 |
18.4% |
11.5% |
10.6% |
|
MLB average |
22.1% |
8.9% |
10.8% |
It takes more than one player to win in the postseason, but a star player performing like a star is a major advantage. The Rays know this well after watching Randy Arozarena carry them in 2020. The Blue Jays had Vladimir Guerrero Jr. last year; the Rangers had Corey Seager in 2023, and so on. They all authored “put his team on his back” kind of performances.
Caminero has developed a special blend of power and contact. You can be a great hitter with one of those two things, but the very best hitters have both. Bottom line: Few players in baseball have the potential to change the game with one swing in the way Caminero does. He’s a threat to flip the script every time he steps to the plate.
2. Their pitching staff can create matchup nightmares
Other than ace righty Drew Rasmussen, the Rays might not have traditional starters in the postseason. Shane McClanahan (who’s currently on the IL with forearm soreness) and Nick Martinez are candidates to work shorter starts, perhaps as short as one time through the lineup, and the 2026 version of Freddy Peralta warrants a short leash. It is a rotation built for excellence in short bursts, not length.
Tampa’s pitching staff, as it often does, boasts a variety of looks. Lefty Ian Seymour brings the funk from a low arm slot. Few pitchers in baseball can spin the ball like Griffin Jax. Tyler Wells is 6-foot-8 with one of the highest arm angles (and thus release points) in the game. Kevin Kelly’s near-sidearm slot eats up righties. Every pitcher the Rays use is different than the guy he replaced.
The variety and matchup ability is difficult to quantify, but the last few years tell us the Rays value it, believe it, and build their pitching staff around it. They are once again one of the best pitching and overall run-prevention teams in the game. Their ability to make hitters uncomfortable is almost unmatched, thanks to the different looks and angles they can throw at you.
3. The AL field is unimposing
There’s a real chance a team with a losing record wins the AL West and the third AL wild-card spot. Five of the seven best records in baseball belong to National League teams and the Rays are one of the two exceptions. The AL is mediocrity defined and, at least on paper, that creates a potentially easy — “easy” — path through the ALCS to the World Series.
To be sure, any team can beat any team in a short series, and the postseason format is likely to force the Rays to go through the Yankees or Red Sox in the ALDS. They might even have to go through both AL East rivals if they don’t win the division and get a bye.
If there is such a thing as an “easy” path through October, though, this year’s American League provides it.
