Two national title contenders were simultaneously in trouble on Sunday night.
Ole Miss kept taking left hooks from Louisville, and Notre Dame couldn’t seem to shake a pesky Wisconsin team determined to mirror the toughness of its head coach at historic Lambeau Field.
The Irish eventually pulled away and avoided disaster a year after missing the playoff and declaring they would “leave no doubt” this time in the selection committee meeting room.
Ole Miss? Well, they decided to make things interesting and take Louisville down to the wire before winning 41-38.
Both schools ended the night with better wins than most every other team in consideration for the first top 12 prediction of the season. Those wins will help separate them now — and could continue to do so on Selection Sunday. The quality of opponent, though, isn’t the only factor the committee members consider.
So who’s No. 1?
It’s still tough to separate, especially with so many similar results against decidedly weaker teams, but that will change quickly in Week 2, when Texas hosts Ohio State to settle it on the field during the biggest game of the week. Until then, here’s a guess at what the committee might do if their ranking were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: One small early difference between Ohio State and Texas was in their respective ground games. The Buckeyes rushed for 237 yards and held Ball State to just 45, while Texas was outgained on the ground 161-156 against Texas State. Both quarterbacks, Texas’ Arch Manning and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, played well and left their respective games in the third quarter, but Manning made a poor throw into triple coverage in the end zone at the end of the first half.
Why they could be lower: We’re splitting hairs. Manning also showed improvement in key areas, namely on passes downfield longer than 15 yards, and his efficiency against the blitz.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives Texas a 53.7% chance — it’s the only game on the schedule that the Buckeyes aren’t favored to win.
Need to know: Texas (No. 2) and Ohio State (No. 8) are both currently ranked in the top eight of ESPN’s strength of schedule metric, which the committee would view as similar. The head-to-head result, though, will be a factor in their ranking through Selection Day.
Why they could be here: The connection between Manning and transfer receiver Cam Coleman was on display from the start as the two connected for the first touchdown of the game. It was one of four touchdowns Manning threw, and Saturday was his second career game with 300 yards passing and four TD throws. Texas won the turnover battle 3-1 and left no doubt it was the better team against Texas State.
Why they could be lower: Following the game, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian acknowledged some growing pains on the offensive line and conceded the running game will need to be better against Ohio State.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at home against Ohio State. ESPN’s FPI gives Texas a 53.7% chance to win.
Need to know: ESPN’s FPI projects Texas will win every game.
Why they could be here: Miami won with style in Week 1 and did it roughly 2,500 miles away from its campus against a conference opponent. Those intangibles are things the selection committee considers, especially when there is so little separation between teams.
Why they could be lower: The committee pays attention to injuries and the Hurricanes got some good fortune in Week 1. Stanford was without three injured offensive linemen who were projected starters, plus receiver Nico Brown and edge rusher Gabe Kaminski.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Notre Dame. It’s the only game on the Canes’ schedule that ESPN’s FPI doesn’t give them at least a 50% chance to win.
Need to know: Miami might need the rest of the ACC to pick it up a notch if the start of the season is any indication of how the rest will play out. The ACC holds a 1-5 record against the Big 12, Big Ten and SEC opponents through most of Week 1. In such games, the ACC carries a minus-80 point margin, the worst in conference history, according to ESPN Research. Following Louisville’s loss, the ACC had recorded its most season-opening losses against current Power 4 opponents in conference history. It would help the Canes’ résumé if Clemson rebounds this season and becomes a challenger in the conference, otherwise a road win in South Bend would become critical to compensate for an otherwise ho-hum schedule.
Why they could be here: LSU outplayed and outcoached Clemson in every phase of the game, and the former coaches and players on the selection committee will be particularly impressed with how well LSU played up front on both sides. A vastly improved running game, including from quarterback Sam Leavitt, plus a stifling defense and smart playcalling made the Tigers the total package.
Why they could be higher: Texas and Ohio State also earned lopsided home wins, but theirs came against Group of 6 opponents with more favorable weather conditions.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 19 at Ole Miss. ESPN’s FPI gives Lane Kiffin a 55.8% chance to beat his former team, but it’s going to be an unforgiving, hostile environment when he returns for the first time since leaving the Rebels amid last season’s playoff run to take the LSU job.
Need to know: The true value of the Week 1 win on Selection Day will depend on how Clemson fares the rest of the season. The matchup didn’t amount to much last year after Clemson spiraled to a 7-6 finish. But if Clemson can rebound and put together a meaningful 2026 season, that can help LSU separate from contenders that didn’t play as challenging of a nonconference lineup.
Why they could be here: It wasn’t always pretty, but unlike many of the teams listed here, Notre Dame was playing a Big Ten opponent capable of pulling off an upset. A double-digit win against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field would carry more weight in the committee meeting room than most of the Week 1 opponents, but the group would also acknowledge the Irish still have work to do. Notre Dame showed flashes of potential, but struggled for stretches, allowing the Badgers to hang around early.
Why they could be lower: Wisconsin’s defensive line held its own against Notre Dame’s front, and the Irish struggled to run the ball consistently and seemed to miss the explosive plays they had with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 vs. Miami. The Irish will have home field advantage, and they’re going to need it. The two teams looked vastly different in their respective openers, with the Canes’ offense flying against a depleted Stanford team.
Need to know: Both Miami (78.5%) and Notre Dame (71.5%) entered Sunday night among the top four teams with the highest chances to make the playoff, according to ESPN Analytics.
Why they could be here: Georgia was so in control of its game against Tennessee State that the Bulldogs’ fourth-string quarterback, Hezekiah Millender, scored a touchdown in mop-up duty. Because Georgia’s lopsided win came against an FCS opponent, though, the selection committee would likely keep Georgia behind a team such as Miami that beat a league opponent or LSU that hammered a Power 4 program. It doesn’t help that Tennessee State is already 0-2.
Why they could be higher: Georgia scored on its first five possessions with quarterback Gunner Stockton, and the Bulldogs also flourished in their ground game, getting three rushing touchdowns from Nate Frazier. Even though it came against an overmatched program, the committee members would recognize the skill and execution from Georgia.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 10 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI projects the Bulldogs will win every game, but it gives Georgia just a 58.1% chance to beat the Tide, the lowest percentage on the schedule.
Need to know: Georgia won’t face a ranked opponent until Sept. 26 against Oklahoma, so it will be difficult for the Bulldogs to make a major jump without a statement win. Georgia doesn’t have to win its next two games against Western Kentucky and Arkansas by 60 points, but it will help to avoid any scares.
Why they could be here: It wasn’t easy, but the Rebels earned the only win against an AP Top 25 opponent this weekend. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss worked his magic in the fourth quarter, throwing for more than 300 yards with three passing touchdowns while running for more than 40 yards. Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy left the game with an apparent injury, but the Rebels still found a way to win without him.
Why they could be lower: There were busts in the secondary on defense, two turnovers, and numerous penalties. Georgia was dominant, but the committee considers when it’s against an FCS opponent, and history suggests that a top 25 win would certainly earn the votes in the room over an FCS win.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 24 at Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives the Longhorns an 88.7% chance to win.
Need to know: This was a must-win with LSU rolling into town in two weeks, but that’s hardly the lone challenge looming. ESPN’s FPI gives the Rebels less than a 50% chance to also beat Florida, Texas, Georgia and OU.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers were outgained on the ground 152-134, and North Texas was able to control the clock for about 15 more minutes than IU. Indiana had five penalties, and the defense struggled to get some stops, but these are Week 1 details that typically get cleaned up quickly. Quarterback Josh Hoover completed 13 of 16 passes with no turnovers — a notable achievement in an area of scrutiny after losing the ball 42 times in 31 starts over his three seasons with TCU.
Why they could be higher: IU wasn’t as polished as Georgia, but it had a more formidable opponent, as North Texas coach Neal Brown had the Mean Green within 31-16 with the ball in the fourth quarter before falling apart late. If Hoover continues to grow in the system and play mistake-free, the Hoosiers should be right back in the national title conversation.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 17 against Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule ESPN’s FPI doesn’t project the Hoosiers to win, giving the Buckeyes a 61.3% chance for the road victory.
Need to know: The selection committee doesn’t rank teams based on past performances, so Indiana’s unprecedented 16-0 run to the national title last year doesn’t guarantee the Hoosiers anything this fall. The committee will need to wait until Oct. 17 against Ohio State to get the first real evidence of how they fare against elite competition. The first ranking won’t come out until the first Tuesday in November, though, so while the Hoosiers might be looking up at a few other teams now, that could change when the committee starts paying closer attention.
Why they could be here: How you win matters in the committee meeting room, and there will be some in the group who look at a one-score victory against Boise State and give Oregon credit for eking out a gritty W and others who raise their eyebrows at the trouble spots. The Ducks got off to a sluggish start, racked up 10 penalties for 90 yards, and the game was tied at 27 in the fourth quarter. Coach Dan Lanning noted that Boise State was better on special teams and on fourth downs (2-for-3 compared with Oregon’s 0-for-3).
Why they could be higher: Oregon didn’t lose, and Boise State is clearly a respectable opponent capable of competing for the Group of 6’s CFP berth as a member of the new Pac-12. Oregon outgained Boise State 497 to 274 in total yards.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Ohio State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes an 80.3% chance to win, the only projected loss of the season for the Ducks.
Need to know: This game played out in a similar fashion two years ago, when Boise State went to Oregon and lost by a field goal with future NFL running back Ashton Jeanty. It was such a respectable performance that it was a factor in the committee’s reasoning for including the Broncos in the CFP. If there’s a close race for the Group of 6 spot, this performance could again give Boise State some credit in the room. The win could also grow in value for Oregon if Boise State goes on to win the Pac-12, and the head-to-head tiebreaker would likely keep the Ducks ahead of Boise State on Selection Day, which is critical to seeding and its benefits.
Why they could be here: Sophomore quarterback Keelon Russell flourished in his debut as the Tide’s starter. His dual-threat ability was on full display against East Carolina, as Alabama’s running game finally came to life. There are still questions until Alabama faces tougher competition, and with six penalties and one lost fumble, there are a few things to clean up. Alabama had to use its timeouts to avoid some delay of game penalties as Russell continues to learn the timing of leading the offense.
Why they could be higher: ECU was a respectable nine-win team last year, and Alabama’s flaws Saturday — nitpick things such as the penalties, timing, some decision-making — tend to disappear with reps. There are about 50 new players on Alabama’s roster, so some of that is to be expected.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at LSU. Alabama gets Georgia at home in October, but winning at LSU in November will be even more challenging. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tigers a 61% chance to win.
Need to know: According to ESPN Research, Alabama has the 14th-toughest remaining schedule and the fourth-best chance to reach the SEC title game behind Texas, Georgia and LSU — all of which are ranked ahead of the Tide here for now.
Why they could be here: The Aggies completely shut out Missouri State, a Group of 6 team that was overmatched and outgained 505 yards to 67 and had just four first downs to the Aggies’ 35. Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed played well through three quarters, but with just one returning starter on the offensive line, there were some hiccups that didn’t show in the score. Texas A&M had eight penalties for 75 yards.
Why they could be higher: The committee isn’t going to reward the Aggies for piling it on a much weaker team that’s projected to finish in the bottom half of C-USA, but the group would appreciate the complete effort. The Aggies’ defense smothered Missouri State, limiting the Bears to just one third-down conversion, and 67 total yards. Reed completed 21 of 30 passes (including nine of his final 10) for 233 yards and two touchdowns. With the exception of Georgia, who played an FCS opponent, most of the teams ranked above Texas A&M played better competition with similar results.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 27 vs. Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives the Longhorns a 70.7% chance to win.
Need to know: The Aggies’ remaining schedule is No. 6 in the country, according to ESPN Analytics. The committee will learn more about them when it matters the most, as four of their final five opponents are currently in the AP Top 25.
Why they could be here: The Sooners were dominant in all three phases of the game, including an 88-yard punt return for a touchdown, and a defense that gobbled up two fumbles and held UTEP to just two third-down conversions. Quarterback John Mateer, who was a Heisman Trophy candidate last year before he injured his hand, looked capable of competing for the award again through the three quarters he played.
Why they could be lower: USC has a case for this spot, with two wins against arguably better teams, San Jose State and Fresno State. According to ESPN Analytics, UTEP has less than a 1% chance to reach the Mountain West Conference championship game, the lowest chance in the league.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 10 vs. Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives the Longhorns a 75.5% chance to win.
Need to know: OU travels to Michigan on Saturday, and ESPN’s FPI gives the Sooners a 64.3% chance to win. It’s as close to a must-win situation as there can be in Week 2 because Oklahoma will need some margin for error with Georgia and Texas looming in two of the next three weeks. ESPN’s FPI projects OU will lose both of those games. The Sooners can’t have three losses before the rankings even begin.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Texas (SEC champ)
No. 3 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 4 LSU
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 18 and 19
No. 12 Boise State (highest G6) at No. 5 Notre Dame
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Indiana
Quarterfinal games
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.
No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 4 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Georgia winner vs. No. 3 Miami
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Texas
No. 9 Oregon/No. 8 Indiana winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
