The Premier League has earned its reputation as one of the world’s most competitive leagues for a reason, in large part because no matter how tense the title race is, the battle to avoid relegation brings equal amounts – if not more – drama like clockwork.
There is always a unique charm to the Premier League relegation race, in large part because every weekend in England’s top flight offers a glimpse at some of Europe’s best teams and pits them against a collection of teams that can pale in comparison. Relegation-threatened teams always look incomplete, sometimes entertainingly so, their patchwork-like squads either surviving on a few strokes of luck or earning a season in the Championship because luck was the only thing that could actually save them. The range that the teams in and around the drop zone possess is always gripping, the batch of them often finding new ways to underperform in a struggle that is usually enabled by the pressure of maintaining their status in the Premier League.
Before every new season, there is always a list of usual relegation suspects that are remarkably easy to pick out: the newly promoted teams. The transition from the Championship to the Premier League is always challenging, even for those that manage to survive that first year in the top flight, so much so that Coventry City, Hull City and Ipswich Town are already favored to go straight back down. The good news for them is that they are far from the only teams that should be worried; the Premier League boasts several serious relegation candidates, setting up for a fascinating race at the bottom of the table.
Ready for the drop: Hull City
There is a reasonable argument that Hull City should not even be here. The Tigers rode their luck all the way to the promotion playoff final, where they beat Middlesbrough to book their first Premier League campaign in a decade but they were completely unimpressive on the way. Hull benefited somewhat from overperforming on their expected goals tally of 60.35 during the regular season by scoring 70 goals but what’s truly worth pointing out is that the second-worst defensive team in the Championship last season will now be competing in the Premier League. By some miracle, they conceded just 66 goals in the Championship regular season despite posting 80.28 expected goals against, second only to last-place Sheffield Wednesday. Hull were busy in the transfer window but their squad looks more prepared to excel in next season’s Championship than this season’s Premier League – ex-Colorado Rapids center back Lucas Harrington, for example, is one of a few younger players who might bear the brunt of a harsh season in England’s top flight. Goalscorer Oli McBurnie will do what he can to soften the blow but Hull look resigned to return to the Championship quickly.
More likely than not to go down: Ipswich Town
Like the average Premier League promotion side, Ipswich Town were busy in the offseason and the bets they made in the hopes of staying up are understandable. New manager Gary O’Neil is an ideal candidate for a team hoping to punch above their weight after doing so with Wolverhampton Wanderers in the 2023-24 season, while some of the players they recruited might pop off in England’s top flight. The most notable of their incomings is Daizen Maeda, a member of Japan’s World Cup team who made a name for himself as a prolific winger at Celtic. The question is if any of this actually works – the transition from the Scottish Premiership to the Premier League is not always a seamless one and O’Neil’s talents may only help so much. Considering some of the teams they are up against, a bet on Ipswich will be an awfully optimistic one.
Destined to keep it close: Coventry City
Three years removed from a career-damaging stint in charge of Chelsea, Coventry City manager Frank Lampard will be tasked with charting a Premier League redemption arc of sorts. The Sky Blues were amongst the more stylish sides in the Championship last season, preferring a possession-oriented approach with a high line and incredible attacking might. They scored 97 goals from 87.64 expected goals during the regular season, leading the league in both categories. There’s a question of how Lampard will adjust the strategy for the Premier League but considering they did not experience too much squad turnover this summer, a version of the attack-minded approach might be the key to their Premier League survival. A lot of it will come down to those adjustments, both on a collective and individual level, and a sizable chunk will fall on the shoulders of U.S. men’s national team forward Haji Wright. He enjoyed a career-best 18-goal campaign last season and will be eager to continue that run in his first Premier League season. Should it all come together, Wright’s form might be enough to get them over the line.
Brought it on themselves: Sunderland
A team that finished in seventh place does not make for an obvious relegation candidate but like Hull City in the Championship last season, the underlying statistics tell a different story about Sunderland. Their run of strong form early in the season masked some critical flaws in their set-up – they ranked fourth for fewest goals conceded with 48 but they were solidly midtable in terms of expected goals against with 54.15. Their overperformance in defense allowed them to survive their poor offensive output, ranking inside the Premier League’s bottom four for goals (42) and expected goals (38.86). The real issue is that they have tried to strengthen their squad in the hopes of fixing their problems and so the Black Cats will be running with the same approach for another season in the hopes that it will work. Their fate will likely come down to whether or not the promoted sides have enough in them to sneak out of the drop zone in time, which is a risky bet for a team that waited nearly a decade for their return to the top flight and might just squander it in their second season back.
Surprise contenders: Fulham
Similarly, last season’s 11th-place side is not an obvious relegation contender but Fulham are really leaving a lot up to chance ahead of the new campaign. The Cottagers have placed a big bet on new manager Alvaro Arbeloa, who somehow fell into a job after his half-season at Real Madrid devolved into chaos and never proved his tactical prowess as they slumped to a second trophyless season in a row. Granted, there are differences between his old job and his new one – Arbeloa was explicitly tasked with keeping both Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior happy even though they do not tactically complement each other, while the task at Fulham is staying solidly midtable. The Cottagers may not have enough firepower to manage that feat, though, after losing Harry Wilson and Raul Jimenez and replacing them with relatively unproven talents. Gonzalo Garcia, who had his moments at last summer’s Club World Cup with Real Madrid, will likely bear the brunt of the responsibility in attack and it is unclear if he alone can manage that. A bet on Real Madrid’s outcasts is not exactly an unwise one for a midtable Premier League side but whether or not Fulham picked the right people for the task – or supported them adequately – is another thing entirely.
