We just got past the two-month mark of the 2026 MLB season, which means there are still four long months to go. Needless to say, so many things can change over the large sample that is yet to come. In looking at the top-shelf pitching on the National League side, however, I couldn’t help but want to run through the race for the Cy Young award right now.
I count at least six pitchers with a very strong case and this doesn’t even include last season’s winner in Paul Skenes. I fully expect him to be in the mix by the time we get to September, but his case thus far in 2026 just doesn’t measure up to our top six.
Remember, the Cy Young Award is for the best pitcher in the league in that particular season. If we’re talking about who has been the best in 2026 to this point, I’ve got six clearly superior names to Skenes. Interestingly, two of them at this moment do not qualify for the ERA title, meaning you won’t see them on any of the rate stat leaderboards, but they are so close and the expectation is they’ll be qualified very soon.
One final note: Yes, I’d consider relievers, but they have to be so overwhelmingly crushing every other reliever while also facing off against a sub-par field of starters, given the large difference in workload. We don’t have the latter case this season. There are more than a handful of utter monsters as starters.
The current top six
1. Cristopher Sánchez, Phillies
He didn’t give up a run in May. His scoreless streak of 44 ⅔ innings goes back to his last start in April. He’s currently 6-2 with a 1.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 95 strikeouts against 16 walks in 79 ⅓ innings. Not only does he lead the NL in ERA, but he also leads in innings pitched. That’s a pretty way to make an easy case for me, which is being the best at run prevention while having the highest workload. What more could you ask?
The most electric pitcher to watch right now, Misiorowski is 5-2 with a 1.83 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 100 strikeouts against 19 walks in 64 innings. The only pitcher within a stratosphere of him in strikeouts would be Sánchez at 95. No one else has more than 80. Miz also has the lowest hit rate and is second in ERA among qualifiers.
3. Chase Burns, Reds
It’s pretty rough to have the season Burns is having and still be ranked as the second-best second-year man here behind Misiorowski. There’s an argument for Burns to be above him, though I won’t be making it. Burns is 7-1 with a 1.96 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 72 strikeouts against 20 walks in 64 ⅓ innings. Burns trails only Sánchez in WAR (4.2 to 2.9 on Baseball-Reference).
4. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
I assume at some point we’ll hear an argument that Ohtani should get bonus points because he pulls double duty but I’m never gonna get on board with that one. This award is for the best pitcher, full stop. Back when all pitchers hit, a pitcher’s hitting ability was never considered. Exceptional defensive pitchers don’t get bonus points for their glove, or at least they shouldn’t. This is just “who pitches the best?”
Ohtani has an argument here, so let’s not muddy the proverbial waters with discussions aside from his mound work. He is, however, one of two pitchers I’m listing here who aren’t qualified for the ERA title. He’s one inning short. The rule is to work at least one inning per team game played. The Dodgers have played 56 games, and Ohtani has 55 innings pitched.
In those 55 innings, he’s been masterful, sitting 5-2 with a 0.82 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 61 strikeouts against 17 walks. Note that if he were qualified, he’d have the ERA lead by a sizable margin. But he isn’t. Also, note the difference in workload between Sánchez and Ohtani, which is 79 ⅓ to 55 in innings. That’s significant, and Ohtani has to take a hit there. Even against Misiorowski and Burns, there’s a shortfall. Maybe it doesn’t sound big, but imagine if we were talking about hitters at the end of a season. Is a 64 to 55 gap in home runs enough to knock the guy with 55 down a peg? I sure think so.
For what it’s worth, Ohtani has been good enough in his workload that he shows up fourth behind Sánchez, Burns and Misiorowski in bWAR and third behind Sánchez and Miz in fWAR.
5. Kyle Harrison, Brewers
In terms of not qualifying, there’s a similar discussion here with Harrison as we had with Ohtani. The Brewers have played in 53 games and Harrison has 51 ⅔ innings. He’s been amazing, too, having gone 6-1 with a 1.57 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 61 strikeouts against 14 walks.
6. Chris Sale, Braves
The 2024 Cy Young winner, Sale is 8-3 with a 2.01 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 80 strikeouts against 17 walks in 67 innings. Doubt him at your peril.
Keep an eye on…
In addition to Eduardo Rodríguez, Max Meyer, Bryce Elder and the now-healthy Zack Wheeler, there’s Skenes.
We’ve seen what he can do. The foundation right now for Skenes is plenty good enough to end up getting hot(ter) and bring home the hardware a second straight season. He’s through 12 starts now with six wins, a 3.03 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 75 strikeouts against 12 walks in 65 ⅓ innings. I think it would be foolish to rank him above any of my top six — as long as we’re talking about just what we’ve seen so far in 2026 — and equally as foolish to act like he couldn’t win the award this season.
And, yeah, I love Mason Miller, too, but so far this ain’t the year.
NL Cy Young odds + prediction
The current odds to win the NL Cy Young, via Caesars:
- Cristopher Sánchez: +150
- Jacob Misiorowski: +240
- Shohei Ohtani: +330
- Paul Skenes: +400
- Chris Sale: +850
- Chase Burns: +2200
- Zack Wheeler: +3300
Harrison is at +4500.
It’s possible there are workload concerns down the road this season for Misiorowski (141 ⅓ innings between minors, majors and playoffs last year), Burns (109), Harrison (47 ⅔) and, yes, Ohtani (67 ⅓). There shouldn’t be any with Sánchez, Sale or Skenes at this point.
Sánchez is the chalk play and has a decent lead despite this loaded and deep field. Sale is building a Hall of Fame case here with a late surge to accompany his early-career brilliance. It does seem like the Brewers could let Miz work up into the 160s, though they also might be eyeing a possible deep playoff run and won’t want him compromised.
This really might be a good time for savvy bettors to jump on Skenes at those odds. He’s probably the best pick, actually.
Prediction: I’ll still go with Misiorowski at +240. He’s just been so ridiculous thus far. It’s possible I’m blinded by the stuff, but that’s my pick right now.
