After a Week 1 of NFL football that featured a thrilling Sunday slate but pretty boring prime-time games, the NFL is (hopefully) stepping up its game in the bright lights on Thursday night with a potential shootout between the Bills and Lions.
Buffalo is set to open its new home stadium on Thursday night, and the expectations are high for points: The best betting apps have this game lined at a whopping 54.5, and it’s juiced to the Over to boot. Bet on Thursday Night Football at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets after they spend $5+:
It’s not that unreasonable to have a massive NFL betting total either. We thought coming into the year the Lions would be an explosive offense with a questionable defense. The departure of Sean McDermott was potentially poised to make the Bills a similar team, with Joe Brady now free to open up the playbook or perhaps be forced to because the defense wouldn’t hold up as well.
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Both of these teams gave up 30+ points in Week 1, albeit in somewhat different fashion, and both of these teams scored 30 points in really tight victories. The Under is probably the “smart” play (historically,teams on short rest with monster totals don’t get there) but you’d be hard-pressed to get in front of a potential freight train here.
Having said that, there might be an opportunity to jump on with the short rest factor and how these two teams approach game-planning.
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Best bets for Thursday Night Football
First-half Under 27.5
This number should tell us a lot. It’s lined Under 28 (aka four touchdowns) and juiced to the Under despite that massive total for the full game. It’s entirely possible we get some kind of whacky second half that features big plays from Josh Allen and Jared Goff’s various explosive weapons (Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams in particular can house a ball at any moment).
But both of these teams, despite scoring a ton, generally prefer to run the football. We should see lots of cautiously-stacked boxes here and plenty of James Cook/Gibbs in the first half.
Lions coach Dan Campbell is a bit of a wild card with his fourth-down decision making, but I actually think it can play in our favor as it extends drives and melts more clock if he’s able to pick them up on Buffalo’s side of the field.
In Week 1, we saw a total of eight first-quarter drives between these two teams and their opponents — I think we could get a similar, slow-paced start to this one, considering the stakes, the prime-time factor and the short week. Vegas agrees: the first-quarter total is just 10.5 and it’s -130 to the Under.
Let’s hold on to our seats for 30 minutes, lock in a dub and then enjoy the second-half fireworks.
Thursday Night Football player props
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 18.5 carries (-128, DraftKings)
We attacked rushing attempts on Monday night and got there with EASE thanks to the Chiefs pounding Kenneth Walker into the line over and over again. I do believe this game gets loose late, but as noted above, the expectation is a lot of running in the first half. And based on the usage from Sunday, I don’t necessarily think we see that much from the other backs in Detroit, not at least while Jahmyr Gibbs is healthy. It’s a short week, so maybe that changes and we see a little more Sione Vaki, but this is a monster matchup for the Lions and Gibbs should be full go. He doesn’t need the 29 (!) carries he got last week to beat this line.
Khalil Shakir Over 43.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)
With D.J. Moore in tow, Shakir is firmly on the back burner as far as a weapons go for Buffalo. But I thought in the game against Houston it was pretty encouraging to see him get six targets, which he turned into 50 total yards. Given the total here, we do expect plenty of passing and both teams moving the ball a good deal, particularly in the second half, and Shakir is as reliable underneath as it gets. The Bills might open things up and spread out their personnel more in this matchup, which means Shakir should get peppered with enough shots to clear this.
Josh Allen Over 288.5 pass + rush yards (-115, BetMGM)
The volume wasn’t there for Josh Allen in terms of pass or rush attempts on Sunday, but it didn’t matter: he managed to combine for 357 total yards with his arm and legs against the vaunted Texans defense. Just ridiculous stuff. Now he gets a much softer Lions defense, at home, opening up the new stadium, on prime time. I think he’ll have plenty of chances here to top 300 total yards, whether it’s busting off a big run off script, some designed stuff on third down that the Lions don’t stop for short yardage or even a few deep throws. It’s a couple of yards more than the actual combined total of his pass yards and rush yards if you add them, but that’s to be expected because we’re building his legs into the current passing number of 250. Bet on NFL player props and more at BetMGM:
Thursday Night Football anytime touchdowns
Jameson Williams (+200, DraftKings)
I’m a big “Jamo in Primetime” guy generally speaking, but this matchup is tailor made for the speedy former first-round pick who is capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. A ridiculous FOUR different receivers had 20+-yard catches against the Bills. They can be exploited down the field. I have concerns about the Lions pass protection and how long Jared Goff will be able to hold the ball before getting pressured, but we’re getting 2-1 on Jamo here in a big spot where he’ll be featured in the downfield passing attack.
Dalton Kincaid (+180, DraftKings)
Not one, but two different New Orleans tight ends scored against the Bills on Sunday in the Saints‘ furious second-half comeback. Meanwhile, Dalton Kincaid was busy finally producing a result we’ve been expecting on a regular basis. With DJ Moore in town to distract defenses, Kincaid got to eat in Week 1, and as long as he’s healthy, he’s very much a viable option to find the end zone. We’re getting good value here on a guy who will be able to leak out easily in the red zone with Detroit’s defense collapsing to stop Allen from running.
