There had been few more encouraging starts to the season than the Carolina Panthers. Even though they were only 3-2 through six weeks, the Panthers’ offense was humming, and Bryce Young had taken a huge step forward. Combine that with a faltering NFC South, and it looked like the Panthers were already on their way to a second straight division title.
And then came this week. Buccaneers 43, Panthers, an emphatic reminder that things are rarely what they seem in the NFL. And that Week 6 is way too early to even pencil in anything as far as the playoffs go. With that, we get to overreactions and reality checks. Carolina got the latter served, cold, on Sunday.
The Panthers had the most disappointing, worst loss of the NFL season
Overreaction or reality: Reality
There is simply no other way to state it. This was one of the most stunning displays — or lack thereof — we’ve seen in the NFL of late. Add in the opportunity that the Panthers had at home, plus everything else this game represents, and it’s a truly awful Sunday from Carolina.
Bryce Young threw two interceptions and got sacked five times, one of which resulted in a Calijah Kancey scoop and score. Remember all those terrible outings from the first two years of his career where he looked completely overwhelmed from a physical perspective? This looked very much like that.
Young was truly awful in every aspect. His pocket escapability wasn’t up to par, and Todd Bowles overwhelmed — there’s that word again — him throughout the afternoon.
But really, the Buccaneers overwhelmed the Panthers in every aspect. Carolina had one carry of 15+ yards … and it was by backup quarterback Kenny Pickett in garbage time. Young didn’t get much help from anyone up front; the Buccaneers registered 13 pressures and had six quick pressures (2.5 seconds or faster). That might get worse, too: Right tackle Taylor Moton suffered a fractured fibula, got carted off and is out indefinitely.
The defense might have been even worse. The Buccaneers ran for 258 yards — their fourth-most ever — and three touchdowns. Oh, and we can’t leave out special teams, where the Panthers had a blocked extra point returned for two points and a muffed punt. Find a way a team can get embarrassed, and the Buccaneers did it to their division rival.
Every team has bad weeks, but this was more worrisome in the big picture. Young and the offense have now had a middling week and a bad week since their Week 5 bye. The offensive line has given up the most pressures and the most quick pressures in the NFL. The defensive line now ranks dead last in yards per carry allowed (5.2) and is dealing with significant injuries to both of its cornerbacks.
The Panthers have been brought back to Earth, and they’ve brought the rest of the division back into things. With a chance to separate from the pack, the Panthers still lead the NFC South at 3-3 but are just a half-game up on the 3-4 Falcons, with the 2-5 Buccaneers and 2-5 Saints also still in a not-very-inspiring division race.
Dan Campbell’s fourth-down decision was reasonable
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Lions beat the Packers 20-17 Sunday despite a horrific failed fourth-and-1 at their own 24-yard line late in the fourth quarter.
Lots of people were probably pulling their hair out saying “What is Dan Campbell thinking?!”
Well, he explained what he was thinking: “Well, I thought we would get it, number one. I really believed we would get that. Number two, I knew we would get the ball back if it didn’t work out. And those were the two thoughts.”
Here’s why it’s defensible. To his first thought, the Lions were two-for-three on fourth-and-1 this season and are 10-for-14 since the start of last season.
But when they didn’t get it, his second thought came into play. The Lions had all three timeouts with nearly five minutes remaining. The Lions would have almost certainly gotten the ball back with significant time/timeouts left, no matter what happened. In fact, the short field for the Packers basically worked in the Lions’ favor.
Would you rather have him punt the ball away and give the Packers the ball with five minutes and 40-50 yards to go to reach field-goal range? There’s a solid chance the Packers score with basically no time left and/or the Lions use up all their timeouts in that scenario.
Would I have gone for it there? Probably not. But Campbell’s logic is legitimate here, and analytical models supported it or had it as a toss-up.
It ended up working out, too. The Packers had to settle for a field goal attempt, which was blocked, and the Lions drove down and won on a walk-off field goal. But even if Trey Smack’s kick had gone in, the Lions would have had the ball with 3:21 left and all three timeouts, only down three. Campbell would take that every day of the week.
Don’t think “Oh, there’s dumb Dan Campbell making a dumb, over-aggressive decision.” It was defensible at worst and completely reasonable — and maybe even the right choice — at best. And guess what? His team won!
The Vikings should regret trading J.J. McCarthy
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
In arguably the best performance of his young career, J.J. McCarthy threw for 252 yards in a 27-21 overtime win over the Texans. He made some truly exquisite throws and didn’t have a single turnover, an issue that had plagued him with the Vikings. Meanwhile, the Vikings slugged out a 16-10 win over the Colts. Minnesota is 6-0, but the offense continues to be stop-and-start to put it nicely.
To not put it nicely — and, frankly, more accurately — it has been bad. Minnesota’s 10 touchdowns are the fewest by a 6-0 team since the 1934 Lions. Only the Chargers score a touchdown on a lower percentage of their drives this season. Only Cam Ward and Daniel Jones have a lower touchdown rate than Kyler Murray this season. That’s bad company. The traditional run game has been poor, and while Murray has had some big plays, but down-in and down-out, it’s been very poor.
But 1) it’s been one game for McCarthy, so let’s not go overboard, and 2) it just wasn’t working out in Minnesota for him. It wasn’t. He was bad in training camp. He was bad in the preseason. He was bad and/or hurt last season.
Sometimes players need a change of scenery. Sam Darnold needed many. And, again, it’s too early to deem McCarthy a success story in New York. Vikings fans can want a better offense and realize it wasn’t going to happen with McCarthy.
The Ravens will miss the playoffs
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
For the first time since 1996, the Ravens have blown a double-digit halftime lead. This week, they led the Bengals 13-0 at halftime before losing 35-13.
Yes, that’s a 35-0 second half for Cincinnati, the team’s best and most important half in a long, long time. The Bengals are 4-2 and, after looking completely asleep in the first half, they looked like a Super Bowl-caliber outfit in the second half.
Baltimore was once again without Lamar Jackson, though he’s expected back next week. His return can’t come soon enough. The Ravens are now 4-3, which is fine, but they’re 0-2 in the AFC North. Their offense looks like one of the best in the NFL with him and one of the worst without him. Add in that the defense has struggled in crucial situations — 29th in yards per play allowed and just one sack in second halves this year — and you get a team that has limited margin for error.
Jackson and the Ravens will face the Bills next week and then the Jaguars. They need to win one of those two — at least — to get back on track, and then an easier stretch (Chargers, at Panthers, Texans, Buccaneers) ensues. I’d bet on Baltimore figuring it out with Jackson back.
The 49ers can’t win a Super Bowl with their current offense
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Christian McCaffrey was the latest 49ers weapon to get hurt, though at least he returned in San Francisco’s eventual 29-20 loss to the Falcons. It’s the 49ers’ first loss of the season, and given their offensive personnel, it’s amazing it took this long.
Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel both missed the game. De’Zhaun Stribling and Demarcus Robinson remain on IR. Ricky Pearsall is out for the year.
The 49ers had four active wide receivers Sunday: Jordan Watkins, Brandin Cooks, Jacob Cowing and Christian Kirk (in his first game of the season after a calf injury). More than half of Purdy’s completions went to George Kittle or McCaffrey.
Everything fell apart last week when Evans exited, and with a short week, the 49ers didn’t have any answers. How could they? This isn’t an injury bug at wide receiver. It’s injury Godzilla.
The good news is the bye is here, and reinforcements should be coming back. If they don’t — or if they get hurt again — the 49ers will be looking at more offensive issues.
The Saints should fire Kellen Moore
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Less than two weeks ago, Saints owner Gayle Benson called the Saints’ 1-4 start “not acceptable” and called out coach Kellen Moore and GM Mickey Loomis by name.
“Kellen Moore and his coaches are responsible for preparing our players to perform,” Benson said. “Mickey Loomis and our football staff are responsible for building a roster capable of sustained success. Our players are responsible for their preparation and execution.”
Then, last week, Benson showed up at Friday’s practice, hugged Moore, and endorsed him, per ESPN, saying no change is imminent. Talk about a seesaw. The Saints beating the Giants helped.
But then the Saints lost to the Steelers, 16-10, in Paris this week. Will Benson go back to seemingly putting Moore on the hot seat?
She shouldn’t. This is a team still emerging from a years-long long run of misguided win-now moves after Drew Brees retired. Tyler Shough has shown positive growth under Moore, and the NFC South is eminently winnable. First-round pick Jordyn Tyson is getting closer to returning. The defense has been banged up. A 2-5 record is unsightly, but Moore deserves at least through the end of this year — and I would argue a third season next year — before New Orleans makes a decision to move on.
It’s Fernando Mendoza time for the Raiders
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Raiders lost to the Rams 35-21, Las Vegas’ fourth straight loss after a 3-0 start.
Does that mean Fernando Mendoza time? No. Kirk Cousins played well — again — in this game with 295 passing yards, two touchdowns and zero turnovers. The Raiders are giving him no help in the running game: Mike Washington Jr. and Ashton Jeanty combine for 42 yards on 14 carries, which is already a bad number before you realize half of those yards came on one carry.
Listen, even when the Raiders were 3-0, I was saying they wouldn’t make the playoffs. But the Raiders are *only* 3-4, and they play the Jets next week. Benching Cousins would send the wrong message to the team. If they were 2-5 or worse, or if Cousins were struggling, then Mendoza time would be closer. But not right now.
That doesn’t mean it won’t happen at some point. Let’s say the Raiders win next week to get to 4-4. You can’t bench Cousins then. But then comes a tough stretch of at 49ers, Seahawks, at Broncos, at Browns. Then comes the bye week. I think Mendoza will take over at some point mid-November, or perhaps at the Week 6 bye. But now would be far too early for all parties involved.
Bo Nix had a breakthrough that will carry over
Overreaction or reality: Part overreaction, part reality
Bo Nix threw for 222 yards on 7.7 yards per attempt in Sunday’s win over the Cardinals — both his best numbers since Week 2. Those numbers lie, somewhat, though. Nix’s 52-yard touchdown pass was … you guessed it … a screen.
But there was legitimate progress in downfield aggressiveness. Nix’s 11.1 air yards per attempt were a season high, and his four completions of 20+ yards were his most since Week 2. And perhaps most importantly? Nix looked to create. Going from one big play where he didn’t do much (above) to a big play where he did a lot …
Seeing Nix move and look to make plays is huge! He had a 27.3% scramble rate in 2024 and a 16.1% scramble rate last year. This year, it’s down to 7%. Maybe it’s the ankle fracture and surgery from last season that’s still in the back of his mind. But this is an important step — or however many steps it took him to cover 62 yards.
Long story short, there were moments of breakthrough: the running, the aggressive throwing, the pressure mitigation. There were moments of non-breakthrough: barely over half his passes were completed, too much inconsistency. The Cardinals’ defense must be factored in, too. But this was a half-step in the right direction.
