The NFC North was arguably the top division in the NFL last year, sending three teams to the playoffs as the Detroit Lions had the conference’s No. 1 seed and both the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers secured wild card spots. Expectations are high for this division once again in 2025 as there are three teams whose win totals are 9.5 to 10.5. Using our NFL Power Rankings to gauge each team’s 2025 strength of schedule, the Bears have the toughest schedule, the Lions the second-hardest, the Vikings third and the Packers sixth, so whichever team ends up winning the division will certainly be battle tested. For all of my daily best bets, go to the Inside the Lines blog.
Packers capitalize on third-place finish
There is a big advantage to being a really good team like the Packers, who had a +122 point differential, won 11 games and yet still finished third in their division. This year, they get to play the other third-place teams from a year ago like Carolina (instead of Atlanta) and Arizona (instead of Seattle).
| OUTCOME | DETROIT | GREEN BAY | MINNESOTA | CHICAGO |
| MISS PLAYOFFS | +150, 40% | 29.1% | +105, 48.8% | 23.3% | -125, 55.6% | 47.3% | -240, 70.6% | 82.2% |
| LOSE WC ROUND | +330, 23.3% | 21.5% | +320, 23.8% | 22.9% | +360, 21.7% | 26.2% | +500, 16.7% | 11.3% |
| LOSE DIV ROUND | +440, 18.5% | 19.7% | +470, 17.5% | 22.3% | +550, 15.4% | 15.2% | +900, 10% | 4.8% |
| LOSE AFC CHAMP | +750, 11.8% | 13.2% | +950, 9.5% | 14.6% | +1100, 8.3% | 6.8% | +1900, 5% | 1.2% |
| LOSE SUPER BOWL | +1200, 7.7% | 7.5% | +1700, 5.6% | 8.7% | +1900, 5% | 2.8% | +3800, 2.6% | 0.4% |
| SUPER BOWL CHAMP | +1000, 9.1% | 9% | +1800, 5.3% | 8.2% | +2200, 4.3% | 1.7% | +4500, 2.2% | 0.1% |
The NFC North plays the NFC East this year, and the two elite teams, Philadelphia and Washington, have to travel to Green Bay to face the Packers. Green Bay also gets its two toughest AFC opponents, the Ravens and Bengals, at home.
This comparably easier schedule is why we love Green Bay to take the division with a best price of +270 on Caesars. It implies 27% but we have them at 42% to win the division. Bet the Packers at Caesars and get 10 profit boosts when you sign up here:
The Lions have to replace both of their coordinators from last year, but they do get star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson and a boatload of other defensive players who were hurt last year back in the lineup. The model still has them as very strong values to advance far into the playoffs, and there’s even fair value with the Lions to win it all. The best price is Detroit +1100 on DraftKings to win the Super Bowl. This implies 8.3% and that would make our 9% a positive value. Bet on the Lions at DraftKings, where new users get over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and $200 in bonus bets instantly:
Minnesota and head coach Kevin O’Connell know what they are doing, especially on offense. They turned Sam Darnold into a Pro Bowler. If they let him walk for 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy, that should be a clear indication that they know McCarthy is ready for the job. Unfortunately, you cannot get plus money on them to make the playoffs like you could a few weeks ago. Right now, the best line on our board for the Vikings to make the playoffs is -102 on FanDuel. We have a slight lean here with a 53% chance. Bet on the Vikings at FanDuel and get $150 in bonus bets when you win your first bet of $5 or more:
But McCarthy is effectively a rookie this year, and it’s a bit much to expect him to lead Minnesota to a playoff win if the Vikings make it. The better value is for Minnesota’s season to end in the wild card round at +360.
Chicago is 20th in our power rankings, and we have the Bears ahead of teams like Miami, Atlanta and Jacksonville. But at 17.8% to make the playoffs, the Bears are behind Miami’s 36.1%, Atlanta’s 18.1%, and Jacksonville’s 29.2%. Having the toughest schedule in the league and a pass-first offense that has to play at Soldier Field and/or against top-tier defenses from Week 10 onward is likely too much for Caleb Williams and Co. to overcome in Ben Johnson’s first year as Chicago’s head coach. We would run with the DraftKings -195, 66% best price for them to miss the playoffs, given we have that market at 82%.
The Bears play on Monday Night Football in Week 1 against the Vikings. If they lose that game, their playoff chances drop to just above 10%. A win only takes them to 24%, so they’d still be a good value play at -195 in the latest NFL odds.
The model has this game as a true toss-up, with Chicago winning 50.8% of the simulations.
