March Madness bracket season is back, and while you may be hesitant to put double-digit seeds into the Final Four of your 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket, recent history tells you that 2026 March Madness upsets will happen along the way. Last year, five double-digit seeds won at least one NCAA Tournament game, including McNeese making the Sweet 16 as a No. 12 seed. Their former head coach, Will Wade, is now the head coach at North Carolina State.
Wade will try to lead NC State to another deep March Madness run after the program made the 2024 Final Four. But NC State will need to defeat Texas on Tuesday in the First Four to advance to the Round of 64 of the March Madness bracket 2026. Before you make your 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Two years ago, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida. Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including calling both 9-seeds that advanced in the first round, No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis, and No. 6 BYU advancing to the Sweet 16. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past seven tournaments.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn’s championship run in 2024. It nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 and correctly predicted all four Final Four teams a year ago.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. You shouldn’t even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.
Top 2026 March Madness bracket upset picks
One South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 11 VCU upsets six-time national champion and No. 6-seeded North Carolina. This isn’t nearly the same Tar Heels team that started the season ranked in the top 25 and reached as high as No. 11 this year. Injuries at the wrong time have weakened the Tar Heels ahead of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. North Carolina lost to unranked Clemson, 80-79, in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals after falling to Duke by 15 points in its final game of the regular season. VCU is one of the hottest teams in the nation, winning 16 of its last 17 games, including the Atlantic 10 final. North Carolina has the name appeal, but the Tar Heels should be on upset watch.
Another South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 5 Vanderbilt defeats No. 4 Nebraska to advance to the Sweet 16. The model projects both these teams to get past their opening-round matchups (Vanderbilt over McNeese and Nebraska over Troy) to meet in the second round. Vanderbilt is coming off an SEC Championship Game appearance, losing to Arkansas, 86-75, on Sunday. But the Commodores picked off No. 4 Florida, 91-74, in dominating fashion in the conference semifinals.
Vanderbilt won two neutral-site games in the SEC Tournament and won four straight overall and five of six entering the SEC Championship Game. Meanwhile, Nebraska lost its first conference tournament game, falling to Purdue, 74-58, in the Big Ten quarterfinals. After a 20-0 start, the Cornhuskers are just 6-6 over their last 12 games. See which other 2026 March Madness upsets and matchups to target here.
How to make 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a No. 14 seed, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that’s nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.
