NBA Coach of the Year rankings, odds: Why there’s a clear favorite in season of surprises

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Pat Riley recently lamented the state of sideline fashion in the NBA as it pertains to coaches. He wants them to go back to wearing suits instead of the athleisure look that was adopted during the pandemic and became the unofficial dress code. It’s a pretty solid old-guy-shakes-fist-at-cloud take from someone who not that long ago joked about being washed. Besides, he’s a coaching legend who’s earned the right to weigh in on these specific matters.

Tyler Herro is not Pat Riley. But, like a lot of people who are not coaches, Herro felt compelled to give his opinion about Riley’s opinion. Like Riley, Herro wants coaches to go back to wearing suits. “Make the coaches do a little bit more,” he offered, “dress a little harder, put some swag into it.”

This from someone who might benefit from putting a little less swag into it. (The spacesuit-meets-sweatsuit and orange vegan leather looks were something.) 

But it’s the “do a little bit more” part that rankles. The nerve! Coaches have it rough enough as it is without having to worry about the fashion police. You have Rick Carlisle out here running cover for the Pacers decision to tank, Ime Udoka fending off questions about Kevin Durant’s alleged burner accounts, and poor JJ Redick forced to start an underachieving center with delusions of grandeur.

Point is, coaching isn’t easy. In honor of what can be a difficult job, we’re going to rank the five coaches who appear to be in the running for 2026 NBA Coach of the Year honors as the regular season winds down. 

{Extremely awards show presenter voice] here are the nominees for excellence in coaching this season. 

FanDuel odds to win Coach of the Year: +3500

Do you know the last time the Hornets were good or even good-adjacent? Of course you don’t. No one does. They might have even been the Bobcats at the time. Who can remember?

The Hornets haven’t made the playoffs in a decade. They haven’t made it out of the first round since 2002. They’ve never gone deeper than the second round in the organization’s 37 years of existence. The bar is extremely low in Charlotte.

Lee has managed to help the Hornets clear it this season. The Hornets are currently the No. 10 seed in the East and trending up. Charlotte is still a game under .500 (30-31), but when they win, they throttle their opponents by ridiculous margins. And lately they’re winning a lot more than they’re losing. Since Jan. 22, the Hornets have gone a league-best 14-3 and are second in net rating.

It helps that Brandon Miller is healthy after missing a chunk of games to start the season, and that the Hornets nailed it when they selected Kon Knueppel with the fourth overall pick in the draft. Knueppel (-170 at FanDuel) now has better odds than Cooper Flagg to win Rookie of the Year honors, leads the entire league in 3-pointers made, and is flirting with a 50/40/90 shooting season in his first year. And last week he broke the NBA rookie record for most 3-pointers in a season — with 22 games still to go.

Lee has also managed to get go-his-own-way LaMelo Ball to buy into the Hornets system. After briefly demoting Ball to the bench for a period, Lee reinserted him into the starting lineup. Since rejoining the main group, Ball’s worst me-first freelancer instincts have (mostly) been avoided in favor of going with the team flow. Now if only Lee can teach Ball how to drive

Coach of the Year odds: +4500

The Suns won 36 games last season, missed the playoffs, traded their best player and future Hall of Famer, and fired their head coach for the third straight year. Then they hired a rookie to patrol the sidelines on behalf of an owner who famously does not go in for losing (even though the Suns have done a good bit of it on his watch).

This should have been a disaster. Instead, Ott has transformed the Suns into one of the pleasant surprises of the season. Phoenix has somehow scrapped its way to seventh place and is two games behind the Lakers for the six seed. In the loaded Western Conference, that’s an achievement that few thought possible.

Under Ott, acquired taste Dillon Brooks became a crucial component to the Suns’ success. (Brooks was averaging a career-high 20.9 points before recently injuring his hand. He’s expected to miss 4-6 weeks.) Devin Booker and Grayson Allen have both missed time with injuries. Jalen Green has played just 12 games in Phoenix since being acquired in the Kevin Durant trade, also due to injury. And the center rotation of Mark Williams and Oso Ighodaro is thin in the extreme. And yet despite those limitations, the Suns are three games up on the Warriors for the seven seed and are two victories away from equaling last year’s win total with roughly a quarter of the season still to play. 

Coach of the Year odds: +900

By any measure, the Spurs are ahead of schedule. San Antonio just rattled off 11 straight wins before having their streak snapped at Madison Square Garden over the weekend. The Spurs have a comfortable 5.5 game lead for second place in the West. They’ve gone 4-1 against the defending champs this season, and overall they’re 24-11 against teams .500 or better. Last week, against the Pistons, they added another statement win in a season full of them.

Of course, all of this is primarily possible because Mitch Johnson has the good fortune to coach Victor Wembanyama. Even on nights when he isn’t overly efficient on offense, Wemby can still dominate the proceedings — as he did in Detroit.

The Spurs haven’t been to the playoffs in seven seasons. There’s a general school of thought that teams have to learn to win in the postseason before they can make a deep run. Not surprisingly, they have the third-best odds to jump the line and win a championship this season. 

That kind of rapid rise and lofty expectations might mess with the collective heads of a less-grounded team. Not the Spurs. They’re all pretty even-tempered — which feels like an extension of Johnson himself. The man is unflappable. He’s a perfect fit in San Antonio. 

Coach of the Year odds: +450

From unflappable to Mazzulla who is… unique. Let’s go with unique

This was supposed to be a lost season in Boston. Jayson Tatum blew out his Achilles in the 2025 playoffs. Then the Celtics jettisoned Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porziņģis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet as cost-cutting measures. Apart from Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard, that didn’t leave Mazzulla much to work with — or so a lot of us thought. 

Muzzulla has channeled his inner Han Solo this season and beaten the odds against him by going deep into his coaching bag. Eleven different Celtics are averaging at least 15 minutes per game. The mix-and-match combinations vary wildly from night to night. One of my favorite activities is checking Boston’s box scores after each game to see what Beautiful Mind combination Mazzulla cooked up that evening. Against the Suns last week, with Brown unavailable, he started White, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta, Ron Harper Jr and Baylor Scheierman. He used seven guys off the bench. The Celtics won on the road by 16. The whole operation defies basketball gravity.

At first glance, much of the roster appears average to something south of that. But under Mazzulla, he’s transformed a bunch of bit parts into a fundamentally sound team that makes the right plays more than it doesn’t. The try-hard Celtics don’t beat themselves very often, which gives them a chance to win more nights than not. As a result, they’re second in the Eastern Conference and at the top of the list of teams no one wants to play in the postseason.

And, hey, they might even get Tatum back soon. Right, Joe?

Perfect. No notes. 

1. JB Bickerstaff, Detroit Pistons 

Coach of the Year odds: -320

What a comeback story. Two years ago, the man took the Cavaliers to their first Eastern Conference semifinals in six seasons — notably without LeBron James in tow — and got fired for the effort. Then he washed up in Detroit, at the time a basketball backwater, to take over a team that had won 14 games before his arrival and tied the record for most consecutive losses in a single season.

All Bickerstaff did last season was transform the Pistons into the first team in NBA history to more than triple their win total year-over-year. All he’s done this season is push the Pistons to the top of the Eastern Conference standings. Detroit is second in point differential and defensive rating. They have the best winning percentage in the NBA against teams .500 or better and in Clutch games. The Pistons have a legitimate MVP contender in Cade Cunningham. They dominate the paint most nights, and they aren’t afraid to get physical. (Complimentary.) De-troit Basket-ball is back in a big way, and Bickerstaff helped make it happen. 





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