After an agonizingly long wait (which seemed even longer if you were an SEC bubble team), it’s finally mid-March, and that means the NCAA basketball tournament. Headlined by No. 1 seeds Duke, Arizona, Michigan and Florida, as well as a cohort of the usual blue bloods, some new faces and potential Cinderella teams, there are plenty of opportunities for bettors to get in on the action.
It’s no surprise that several of the top seeds are the favorites to win the national title, with Duke as the front-runner at +330, while Michigan (+350), Arizona (+425), Florida (+700), Houston (+1000) and UConn (+1700) round out the betting favorites to take it all.
Our college basketball betting analysts reveal their favorite early bets since bracket dropped, ranging from picks in the first round to some futures for the title game.
Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook. Odds accurate at time of publish and are subject to change.
Kevin Pulsifer: North Carolina isn’t the same team that beat Duke earlier this season. Caleb Wilson‘s injury has limited the Tar Heels’ ceiling, and now they face a VCU team that gets to the free throw line at a top-20 rate in the country, which could counteract one of Carolina’s defensive strengths if the refs have a tight whistle (which often happens in the NCAA tournament). UNC has won one game away from the Dean Dome without Wilson, against a hapless Syracuse squad. Meanwhile, the Rams were tested in the nonconference schedule, taking NC State down to the wire in Raleigh and beating Virginia Tech by 18 on a neutral court. VCU won’t be afraid here.
Mark Zinno: The committee loves to take lower-seeded team’s strengths and match up them with higher-seeded team’s weaknesses. That’s what you have here with High Point facing the Badgers. The Panthers average over 90 points per game while Wisconsin’s defense leaves a lot to be desired. They are a middle-of-the-road team in effective field goal shooting defense and 3-point shooting defense. High Point will present all sorts of problems for the Badgers.
The Panthers have the nation’s longest current winning streak at 14 games. They play with a ton of pace, and their ball movement allows them to get inside and make easy buckets. They are an excellent perimeter defense, holding opponents 31.9% shooting from three, while the Badgers are immensely dependent on 3-point shots falling. High Point forces the fifth-most turnovers in the nation and could frustrate Wisconsin shooters. If there is a prototypical 12-5 upset this year, this is it.
Lipscomb: I like this matchup for Miami, even with the game being played in St. Louis, just two hours from Missouri’s campus. That matters a lot less in the tourney. The Canes have been strong at both ends of the court, particularly on the glass where I expect Ernest Udeh Jr. and Malik Reneau to be too much for the Tigers to handle. Miami has traveled well this season — a 10-5 road/neutral record, with those losses coming to Florida, BYU, Virginia (twice) and Clemson — while Missouri has struggled away from home (5-9), including a 91-48 drubbing at the hands of Illinois in the very building in which this game takes place. I expect Jai Lucas will have a plan to slow down red-hot Mark Mitchell, and dare other Tigers to do damage.
(2) UConn to make Elite Eight (+170)
Zinno: The Huskies are overseeded in my opinion. However, the selection committee did them a solid with a very favorable draw here. While the Furman Paladins are a pesky team, they are a bad matchup against UConn’s defense, which has the size required to not cede the inside, and the rebounding to not allow second-chance points.
In their second matchup, the Huskies might not even see No. 7 UCLA and instead get No. 10 UCF, as Mick Cronin’s Bruins have struggled on the east coast in the Big Ten. UCF got mauled by similar teams in Arizona, Houston and Iowa State; and UConn profiles like they do.
If it is No. 3 Michigan State in the Sweet 16, that’s a coin flip game to me with the Huskies’ perimeter defense shutting down the Spartans. I can see all the higher-seeded teams in the bottom half of the East bracket losing their first round matchup, which gives the Huskies an easier path. UConn has one of the better draws in this tournament and should see three wins in a row here.
(3) Virginia to make Elite Eight (+310)
Pulsifer: The Cavaliers just took Duke down to the wire and held Cameron Boozer to 3-of-17 shooting in the ACC title game, thanks to incredible post defense by Ugonna Onyenso and a nine-man rotation where the bench is as strong as the starters. Virginia is balanced inside and outside, on offense and defense and they have a favorable draw. A streaky Tennessee team awaits in the second round (or an inferior SMU team the Cavaliers already beat, or a Miami [Ohio] team that’s weak in predictive metrics), and then a potential Sweet 16 matchup against Iowa State actually suits UVA. The Cyclones tend to underperform in March due to a massive home-court advantage in the regular season, and they struggle mightily from the free throw line. Iowa State also encourages teams to shoot threes, something Virginia is comfortable doing.
(7) Miami to make Sweet 16 (+400)
Lipscomb: Why not build on the first-round pick and roll (yes, intended) with the Canes to survive the first weekend? To do that, they’ll need to take care of No. 2 seed Purdue, which is coming off a grueling Big Ten championship game. This one is about the value for me, as I believe Miami isn’t being taken seriously enough (they have the 25th-shortest odds to win two games). My largest area of concern in the Purdue matchup is the Boilermakers’ perimeter prowess (38%, top 20 in the nation). However, putting the shoe on the other foot, I think Miami can get what they want on the offensive end and give Purdue all it can handle, and then some, in what I expect will be a physical battle. This feels like a Tru Washington X factor game off the bench.
