If you’re interested in making home run prop picks on Friday, there’s at least one piece of good news, which is that the Colorado Rockies are back at home in Denver. The issue? The Rockies host a San Francisco Giants lineup that ranks last in runs scored and in the top 10 in home runs. As such, I’ll pass on any Coors Field home run plays on Friday. That being said, conditions for long balls look good in other parks across MLB, including PNC Park, Citi Field and Dodger Stadium as there’s not really any great pitching weather anywhere. Bet home runs at DraftKings, where new users get $100 in bonus bets with a $5 wager:
Those interested in MLB betting, particularly home run prop betting, should take a look at what SportsLine expert Matt Severance is playing for Friday’s games.
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Over the past four MLB seasons, I’m up $1,681 on my MLB picks. You can find more of my picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.
Last Friday, my home run picks were the Braves‘ Matt Olson and Royals‘ Salvador Perez. Olson had one of his worst games of the season vs. Washington at 0-for-5 with a strikeout. Perez was 0-for-4 vs. Seattle. Hey, they both had very good career splits against the opposing starting pitchers. As usual, if I recommend a HR prop, Over 1.5 total bases is an even better play.
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Top MLB home run picks for Friday, May 29
Mike Yastrzemski, Braves (+570, FanDuel)
I don’t know that I’ve ever played a prop on the 35-year-old Yastrzemski, the grandson of Red Sox legend and Hall of Famer Carl Yastrzemski. I’m not going to sit here every Friday and recommend the easy guys to go yard like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani or Kyle Schwarber. Anyone can do that. I’ll try and look a bit deeper.
Yastrzemski has had a solid career and his career high in homers was 25 in 2021 with San Francisco, but he’s hitting just .234 this year with only three homers largely as a platoon outfielder. The lefty hitter plays against right-handed pitchers and usually takes a seat against southpaws.
Atlanta is at homer-happy Great American Ball Park to open a series tonight, and the Reds will start Chris Paddack, a righty, on the mound. He’s 0-6 with a wretched 6.86 ERA and six homers allowed in nine appearances (eight starts) spanning 40.2 innings. Paddack was released earlier this month by Miami and picked up by Cincinnati. He has been slightly better with the Reds in two starts with a 4.50 ERA and no home runs allowed.
Yastrzemski doesn’t have outstanding career splits against many pitchers, but he does against Paddack at 10-for-25 with three doubles and three homers, good for a 1.324 OPS. The lone homer Paddack allowed while pitching for the Marlins in an April 15 loss in Atlanta was courtesy of Ozzie Albies in the fourth inning. Winds are blowing in very slightly tonight but shouldn’t factor. Bet on home run props and more at FanDuel Sportsbook and get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager here:
Freddie Freeman, Dodgers (+509, DraftKings)
No doubt the marquee matchup around the majors on Friday is Phillies at Dodgers with a 10:10 ET first pitch — an Apple TV exclusive. It’s rare to see Los Angeles as only a -120 home favorite. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if we see these teams face off again in October like they did in the 2025 NLDS.
How do I find my home-run picks? The first criteria is a batter’s splits against that game’s starting pitcher. Normally, I’d not back anyone to go yard against stellar Phillies righty Zack Wheeler (4-0, 1.67 ERA). He enters with back-to-back scoreless outings spanning 13 innings (only six hits allowed) and might be the NL Cy Young favorite if not for a late start to the season due to surgery.
Philadelphia has won all six of his starts, and you would be up $509 if you wagered $100 on the Phillies to win each of those games. In 37.2 innings pitched, the only person to homer off Wheeler this year was Sacramento’s Tyler Soderstrom back on May 6 in the City of Brotherly Love. So what am I doing here? Even the best pitchers have a few guys who hit them hard. For example, did you know that Tony Gwynn was a career .429 hitter against fellow Hall of Famer Greg Maddux and never struck out in 103 plate appearances? I loved Gwynn. And Maddux.
Like Gwynn, the Dodgers’ Freeman will be in Cooperstown someday, and the 36-year-old probably deserves to be a first-ballot choice like Gwynn was. The California native has slowed down at the plate, batting .271 with seven homers and a .830 OPS, but enters off back-to-back two-hit games and went yard Wednesday vs. Colorado. It was his fourth multi-hit effort over the last eight, during which he has three homers and four doubles. Freeman has faced Wheeler more than nearly any other big-leaguer has with 21 hits in 54 at-bats (.389) with two homers and four doubles — good for an OPS of 1.088.
Teoscar Hernandez is 3-for-10 with two homers off Wheeler, but he will be placed on the IL today after leaving Wednesday’s game with a hamstring injury. Hernandez had a 1.018 OPS over the past 18 games. Shohei Ohtani is 2-for-3 off Wheeler but hasn’t gone deep. Winds are expected to blow out at nearly 13 mph at Dodger Stadium tonight. Make MLB prop picks and more at DraftKings and claim your $100 in bonus bets as a new user:
