Shohei Ohtani is always the center of attention, but that might particularly be the case Friday night when the Dodgers visit Ohtani’s former Angels team in the Freeway Series. Ohtani is in one of the biggest hitting slumps of his career. The Dodgers aren’t using him as a hitter on nights he pitches, like Wednesday, but then he didn’t play at all at DH on Thursday either as manager Dave Roberts tries to shake the four-time MVP out of his doldrums. Ohtani is now +17500, by the way, to lead the majors in homers this season. I won’t be playing him tonight against the Halos (+262) but will be curious to see how he reacts to some rare adversity.
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Last Friday, my MLB betting homer picks were the Mets‘ Juan Soto and Angels’ Zach Neto — Neto was an especially long shot. Soto’s blah season continued when he went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts in Arizona. Neto had a single in four at-bats in Toronto.
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Top Friday MLB home run picks
Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+235, FanDuel)
Woo-hoo, the Rockies are home on Friday night — so that means we’ve got an auto-play for home runs either from Colorado (doubtful) or the visiting team. The Arizona Diamondbacks are in town. It’s sometimes easy to forget how good Ketel Marte has been with the Diamondbacks and for how long. Earlier this week, he passed Paul Goldschmidt for the second-most games played with the franchise and is now about 100 from passing leader Luis Gonzalez.
There aren’t many better second baseman in the majors and if Arizona were to take some trade calls on the 32-year-old, the Snakes would get a nice haul back as Marte is signed to a team-friendly deal through at least 2030. But with his 10-5 rights (10 years in MLB, five with one franchise) recently kicking in, Marte now has a no-trade clause. The Red Sox reportedly covet him.
Marte is not having his typically strong season at the plate yet, batting .215 with only five homers and a slugging percentage of .367 — compared to .283 with 28 dingers and a slugging of .517 last year. Amazingly, Marte hasn’t homered yet at his own Chase Field, which is pretty hitter-friendly. Not as hitter-friendly as Coors Field, of course, which the Diamondbacks visit tonight for the first time this season.
In his career at Coors, Marte is hitting .295 with nine homers and a slugging of .525. Against the Rockies’ Kyle Freeland anywhere, Marte is hitting .354 and slugging .688 with three homers, five doubles and a triple career. He is due some luck in 2026 with a BABIP of just .236, which would be by far a career low and 54 points lower than in 2025.
Also consider Arizona’s Nolan Arenado (5-for-10, two doubles), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (4-for-12, double, HR) and Corbin Carroll (3-for-9, HR) as each has good splits off Freeland as well.
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Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (+361, DraftKings)
The Orioles-Nationals Beltway Series opener starts at 6:45 ET from D.C., and maybe a rivalry game like this gets O’s All-Star shortstop Gunnar Henderson going at the plate. As recently as 2023, Baltimore looked like the rising superpower in the American League and Henderson, the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year, looked like a future MVP.
But the Orioles have stalled out as they can’t find enough pitching and all those other promising young position players around Henderson either haven’t developed well or can’t stay healthy. But Henderson deserves some blame as well. The 24-year-old was one of the AL’s best players in 2024 when he set multiple career highs including in batting average at .281 and homers with 37. Henderson finished fourth in the AL MVP voting.
He took a step back in 2025 to a .274 average and 17 home runs and this year it’s almost rock bottom at .197 with nine home runs. He had six of those homers in the first 14 games with a peak OPS of .963. Now that’s sitting at .646 with his last homer on April 26 and last hit on Sunday. There are multiple reasons why he’s struggling, but the biggest one is likely Henderson’s chase rate of around 35%, which was 27.7% in 2025 and 23.2% in 2024.
But sometimes a struggling golfer turns his season around by going to a course at which he thrives. Maybe facing struggling Nationals righty Zack Littell on Friday is just what Henderson needs. The 30-year-old Littell is 1-4 with a 6.94 ERA and a whopping 14 home runs allowed — easily the most in MLB — in 36.1 innings pitched.
Henderson is 7-for-23 with two homers and a double career off Littell, and 11 of the 14 homers Littell has given up were to lefty hitters like Henderson. Also consider righty Taylor Ward, who is 4-for-8 with two homers against Littell.
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