Every night on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, we highlight the most important performances of the night in our “Oh My Goodness Gracious Player of the Night” segment, and sometimes it’s hard to come up with an obvious choice. There aren’t always standout performances we absolutely need to highlight at the top of the show, at least not every single night.
Monday night offered something of the opposite problem. We had too many big performances to highlight, even on what was otherwise a pretty quiet day around baseball.
The first one was Pete Crow-Armstrong’s, who continued his resurgence with a reverse “natural” cycle – he went homer, triple, double, and single in order in a 5-4 win over the Rockies. And all of a sudden, Crow Armstrong is hitting .277/.351/.493 for the season with a 29-homer, 36-steal pace. Crow-Armstrong’s entire career has been defined by how hot and cold he runs, but we’re a long way from his .241/.307/.362 line in March and April, and with Crow-Armstrong adding a couple points to his walk rate, maybe we’re seeing a more complete version of him than ever before.
Of course, Crow-Armstrong has never been anything less than universally rostered in Fantasy, so while his big game is notable, it’s not necessarily all that important, at least for our purposes. It doesn’t change anything about how you should view Crow-Armstrong, though if you were someone who had him on a busts list coming into the season – someone who, say, hypothetically, has a daily Fantasy Baseball newsletter you are theoretically reading right now – you might be increasingly uncomfortable about that call. Until the next cold spell, at least.
The other big performances Monday were a lot more notable for our purposes, because they came from players who are actually available in at least some Fantasy leagues. Now, in Dustin May‘s case, it’s not that many anymore, as he opened play Monday rostered in 82% of CBS Fantasy leagues. But that number probably just needs to be 100% at this point.
May put together what was almost certainly the best start of his career Monday, tossing a complete game shutout against the Padres. He allowed just one hit and one walk, both in the seventh inning, but was untouchable otherwise, matching a season-high with nine strikeouts and needing just 101 pitches to finish it off. Okay, it wasn’t quite to the level of Jacob Misiorowski‘s masterpiece Maddux from last weekend, but it wasn’t just the first complete game of May’s career – it was the first time he’s even finished eight innings in 71 career games.
This start pushed May’s season-long ERA down to 3.75, and it’s even better if you take out his disastrous first two starts. Since those two starts, where he gave up 13 runs, he has a 2.54 and 0.98 WHIP while averaging over six innings in 12 starts. And we’ve even seen a nice little uptick in May’s strikeout rate lately, with 33 in 27.2 innings over the past four starts, though without a significant change in his pitch mix or per-pitch whiff rates, I’m mostly inclined to chalk that up to just running a bit hot.
And that’s probably the explanation for May’s two-plus-month hot streak. He probably isn’t a sub-3.00 ERA true talent level pitcher moving forward – though his 3.02 FIP for the season suggests it isn’t totally out of the question. But I would expect something more like his 3.60-ish xERA moving forward, probably with less than a strikeout per inning. That isn’t an ace, but it’s a very useful pitcher, and one I do think needs to be rostered absolutely everywhere while he’s running this hot.
The other big showing Monday came from Tigers infielder Colt Keith, and boy, did he need that. He didn’t hit his first homer of the season until last Thursday, and he tripled that number Monday night with three homers against the Astros.
Keith didn’t exactly get all of his three long balls, with two of them traveling less than 350 feet (the third did go 411, for what it’s worth), but hey, they still count. He’s now up to a .267/.311/.390 line for the season, but it’s not like the underlying numbers suggest he’s been dramatically unlucky – his underwhelming .310 wOBA is matched by a .306 expected wOBA (entering play Monday). Keith has been swinging the bat harder this season, but it has resulted in the worst quality of contact metrics of his career and no notable improvement in his late discipline. It’s not always as simple as “swing the bat harder.”
And seeing as he is one of the most extreme platoon bats in the league (just 11 plate appearances against lefties for the season), it’s hard to say Keith is someone you need to run out and add right now. His eligibility at 1B, 2B, and 3B is a nice little bonus, and in daily leagues, he might be a nice piece to be able to move into different lineup spots when righties are on the schedule. But for most Fantasy players, I think we need to see a lot more from Keith than one phenomenal game to justify adding him.
But, oh my goodness gracious, was it a heck of a game, huh?
Here’s what else you need to know from Monday’s action around MLB:
Tuesday’s top waiver-wire targets
Here’s who we’re looking to add coming out of Monday’s action:
Walbert Urena, SP, Angels (71%) – I think the best thing Urena has going for him right now is that he just seems like an extremely uncomfortable pitcher to face. He can miss bats but hasn’t figured out how to turn that into strikeouts (yet), and he has iffy command, so traditional ERA estimators won’t love him. And then you look at the 3.29 expected ERA he’s putting up this season, and you can see how we can get results like Monday’s, where he allowed three earned runs over seven innings despite three strikeouts and two walks. He isn’t perfect, and he definitely isn’t a finishing product, but Urena keeps generating weak contact, which is helping keep his head above water, and if he figures out how to start turning his obviously good stuff into strikeouts consistently, he could take off. For now, Urena looks like a solid streamer, but he’s worth keeping around for the potential he takes that step forward.
Kodai Senga, SP, Mets (26%) – I want to believe Senga can be good again, so I’m going to give him another chance. It might be the last one, but he’ll get it. Senga is going to start for the Mets Tuesday in place of Christian Scott, who went on the IL with a hip injury Monday. Senga hasn’t been great on his rehab assignment, putting up a 4.00 ERA, but he did go six innings with strikeouts and only one walk and one earned run in his most recent outing, so maybe that’s a sign he’s turning the corner. I’m not terribly optimistic, but he’s a pitcher who has shown serious strikeout upside in the past, and we’re in kind of a fallow period for pitchers on waivers, so might as well see what he can do in deeper leagues. Let’s not forget that before a hamstring injury around this time last year, he had a 1.47 ERA and 3.24 FIP.
Cole Carrigg, OF, Rockies (46%) – I guess Carrigg isn’t being added as much as he should be because he wasn’t a hyped prospect coming into the season? Or maybe people just don’t trust Rockies prospects anymore? But he hit .338/.414/.529 before his promotion to the majors, and now he has three homers in his first seven MLB games after he went deep yet again Monday as part of a four-RBI game. He is hitting .259/.333/.667 with a 20% strikeout rate in the early going and should start to run more – he had 30 steals in 57 games down at Triple-A. Given the upside an everyday role in Coors Field could provide, why not see if this is for real?
Dylan Crews, OF, Nationals (36%) – Crews’ overall numbers are pretty bad still, as he’s hitting just .195 with a .595 OPS through 23 games. But there were some reasons to be optimistic even before he went deep Monday for his fourth homer, which suddenly gives him a 28-homer pace. The batting average is poor, yes, but Crews is striking out at a very manageable 19% clip, and he hasn’t had to sacrifice quality of contact to do it. His expected stats are actually very solid (.268 xBA, .469 xSLG entering Monday), thanks to a 91.4 mph average exit velocity and 9% barrel rate, all of which are career-best marks. If you’re skeptical, I don’t blame you, but I’m going to buy into what we’re seeing here at least a little bit – at least in categories leagues.
Monday’s standouts
Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics – And with Monday’s two-homer game, Kurtz officially has a higher OPS than he did as a rookie, 1.006 to 1.002. His power production hasn’t quite matched up to last season’s pace, but he’s still on pace for 40-plus homers while dramatically improving his plate discipline. He has already walked 67 times in 71 games, after racking up 63 in 117 last season, and he’s even lopped a few points off his strikeout rate. Kurtz will probably always strike out a lot, but he’s making even better swing decisions and hitting the ball even harder than he did as a rookie, and he’s got a home ballpark that will certainly continue to help his cause. It’s still hard to buy a guy with a 28% strikeout rate as a .290 hitter, but we’re going on 188 games of this, so it might just be who he is. Which might just be a first-round player for the next half-decade or so.
Zack Wheeler, Phillies vs. MIA: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 9 K – Wheeler struggled a bit with his control and efficiency in this one, so of course he ended up with six shutout innings and nine strikeouts, a new season-high. He’s down to a 2.01 ERA and 0.85 WHIP, and he’s starting to miss more bats lately, with 24 strikeouts in 22 innings over his past three starts. If he isn’t quite as good as he once was, he’s not far off. I remain astounded that he’s doing this, coming off Thoracic Outlet surgery.
Shota Imanaga, Cubs vs. COL: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – Imanaga actually left this start without allowing a run, but one of two inherited runners he left behind did end up coming around. He faced his splitter a bit in this one, but he still ended up with 12 whiffs on 85 pitches, so there’s little to complain about here beyond the low strikeout rate. Imanaga has pulled out of his tailspin with two good starts in a row against the Rockies, and while that doesn’t answer every question about him, I still mostly feel very good about starting him moving forward.
Mackenzie Gore, Rangers vs. MIN: 7 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 10 K – He just can’t be normal. In some ways, this was Gore’s best start in more than a month, with the 10 strikeouts standing as his season-best mark. And then there’s the four runs on two homers, limiting how useful this start actually was. I want Gore to be good, but he’s stalled out yet again with his new team in Texas, and I can’t recommend him as anything more than an extremely volatile streamer at this point.
J.T. Ginn, Athletics vs. PIT: 6 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – Ginn predictably struggled in his start in the Las Vegas launchpad last week, but it was nice to see him get back on track Monday back in the more hospitable (though still very hitter-friendly) confines of Sacramento. Only three strikeouts is mildly disappointing, but it came with 13 whiffs on 98 pitches, so the bat-missing potential he has shown lately is still there. Ginn is showing above-average strikeout potential, good control, and homer prevention skills, so I’m buying him as something like a 3.60-ish ERA guy moving forward – not much different from what I expect from May.
Jared Jones, Pirates @ATH: 4 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – Here’s the thing that’s tough about Jones: I do think he’s worth stashing, but you absolutely cannot use him right now. The Pirates are piggybacking him with Carmen Mlodzinski right now, and he’s been limited to right around 75 pitches in every start so far. He can be productive with those limitations, but it gives him absolutely no margin for error – he hasn’t gone more than five innings yet, and he only reached that mark once in four starts. At some point, I think the limiter will come off, and Jones could be very useful when that does happen. But if you can’t really use him right now, I understand if you also can’t keep him around. Bench spots can be valuable.
Andrew Alvarez, Nationals vs. KC: 4 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – There’s something here with Alvarez, who has been missing bats pretty consistently even since moving to the rotation. But his command has been inconsistent – he walked five in his most recent start before this one – and has struggled with efficiency, leading to no starts of even five innings to date. Alvarez is a name to watch, but outside of NL-only leagues, he’s not someone who needs to be added yet.
