No. 9 seed Linda Noskova and No. 10 Karolina Muchova will face off Saturday in an all-Czech women’s final at Wimbledon. Neither has won a major title.
It’s the first time in nearly a decade that two women representing the same country have played against each other in a major final. The last time: the 2017 US Open, when Sloane Stephens defeated Madison Keys.
Who will win? We asked the experts.
1:34
Muchova wins wild tiebreaker vs. Gauff to advance to Wimbledon final
What can Muchova do to defeat Noskova?
D’Arcy Maine: Continue to play her trademark, devastatingly athletic brand of tennis. Muchova can do it all on the tennis court — and can get just about anywhere — and she is one of the most complete players currently on tour.
That style and ability have helped her get past three major champions — Coco Gauff, Naomi Osaka and Barbora Krejcikova — this fortnight as part of a 10-match win streak. Facing match point in the deciding-set tiebreak against Gauff in the semis, Muchova needed to dig deep and remained focused. Despite clear exhaustion and after more than 2½ hours in the blistering heat, Muchova just kept finding a way, scrambling and diving all around the court.
That’s exactly what it will take to win her first Slam title Saturday. Though three years, and a consequential injury, have passed since her last major final appearance, Muchova does have experience when it comes to playing for a Slam title as the world watches. In that match, against Iga Swiatek at the 2023 French Open, Muchova had her chances, and she is the only player to push Swiatek to a decider in the Paris final.
Now, presumably understanding the emotions that come with being so close to achieving tennis immortality, she will need to channel it all the best she can — and continue to do exactly what she has done all tournament long.
Bill Connelly: Keep serving big. Muchova and Noskova have two of the most effective serves in the game, but Noskova’s has been almost untouchable as the tournament has progressed. Since getting broken five times in her narrow third-round win over Sorana Cirstea, Noskova has held 94% of the time — 30 holds in 32 service games.
Muchova’s return is slightly better on average, but it’s hard to see her creating too many break-point opportunities. The key is going to be keeping up. With the way she served late against Gauff in the semis, she’s more than capable.
1:38
Noskova beats Mertens in straight sets, reaches first Wimbledon semifinal
What can Noskova do to defeat Muchova?
Maine: For the big-hitting Noskova, it might all come down to the serve. The center of her game, it has been efficient at Wimbledon and throughout the grass season — and devastating to her opponents. On Thursday against Marta Kostyuk in the semifinals, she won 74% of her first-serve points (and she averages that same percentage across all six matches) and didn’t even face a break point until the second set.
“The serving was insane,” Kostyuk said after the match.
“I know I’m a good returner. Not much I could do today. Not many chances.”
Noskova will need to utilize that weapon again in the final and prevent Muchova from getting into points as often as possible. Though that’s easier said than done, Noskova has held off a slew of far more experienced opponents on the grass, including Madison Keys in the round of 16 and Jessica Pegula in the Bad Homburg final last month. Having won both the singles and doubles titles in Germany, Noskova clearly has everything it takes to win on the surface.
She has been seemingly unfazed and largely nonchalant this fortnight and will need to keep that same attitude Saturday.
Connelly: Hold on in rallies. Muchova’s beautiful offensive game is a strength and creates plenty of easy, quick points for her, but historically, Noskova has been better in longer rallies.
Granted, with both players serving well, there might not be loads of those rallies, but that could make it even more important to win the ones that come about. Noskova’s steady, clean game has shined through beautifully on grass, but Muchova can make you scramble.
Who will win?
Maine: This will be a battle between two players who know each other well. Doubles partners (and almost medalists) at the 2024 Olympics, there will be few surprises for either player. But although neither has shown many signs of nerves throughout the tournament, a major final — especially at Wimbledon — can make even the most mentally tough player feel overwhelmed.
Noskova likely will be contending for many Slam titles for years to come, but Muchova has experience on her side right now and is brimming with confidence after one impressive victory after another. This one is finally hers. Muchova in three sets.
Connelly: My head says Noskova. She has won 20 of her past 24 matches on grass, and her form has continued to improve as the tournament has progressed.
But I can’t shake the idea that this is Muchova’s time. After reaching her fifth Slam semifinal, she has at last gotten to her second final. She bested Noskova in their only official meeting, too. She has waited for this moment. Muchova in three sets.
