It doesn’t happen, but when it does, the GM normally looks like a genius.
That is, a Day 3 selection who finds himself set up to succeed in Year 1. Whether it be because of a hole in the roster, or simply the team using that Day 3 pick to fill a speciality, this is precisely how organizations get immediate returns on a draft selection not made until Saturday in late April.
Below I’ve identified the five picks in the best situation to thrive as rookies in their respective NFL cities.
Raiders WR Dont’e Thornton
In college, at Oregon then Tennessee, Thornton was tasked with opening up those long strides down the field from the outside. And he did thrive in that low-volume, big-play-creator role, averaging 21.9 yards per snag on 65 catches at the collegiate level.
He’s in an ideal scenario in Las Vegas to be that exact type in Geno Smith’s offenses. Sure, Tre Tucker has some juice — he ran 4.40 out of Cincinnati in 2023 — but he’s not even 5-foot-9 and weighs under 190 pounds.
Thornton is nearly 6-5 and weighed in at 204 at the combine. And he ran 4.30.
And these type of home run hitters typically flourish within offenses that feature other stylistic pass catchers with established reputations. Tight end Brock Bowers established an elite-level reputation as a rookie last season. Jakobi Meyers is one of the more underrated possession wideouts in football, and we all know Ashton Jeanty is going to get his fair share of touches in Year 1.
Thornton can just live on the outside, and push his throttle to the floor frequently in Las Vegas. He’s a 40-yard catch waiting to happen every time he steps on the field.
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Cody Benjamin
A thick, explosive, no-nonsense linebacker on the Ravens. Sounds ideal, doesn’t it. And as a fourth-round pick, Baltimore won’t have to rely on Buchanan to be the sole playmaker at the second level, as All-Pro Roquan Smith still patrols there.
Buchanan will have to battle Trenton Simpson for playing time next to Smith, but the rookie has the advanced skill set to see the field sooner than later. Most young linebackers struggle in coverage once they get to the lead. In college, they’re typically one of the most athletic players on the field, and they’re coached to see ball, get ball, often flying downhill and piling up huge tackling totals. It’s floating in reverse at the snap, and finding the football that causes their development to move at a glacial speed.
Buchanan is ready to go on passing downs. He had four pass breakups in 2024 at California. Before that, at UC-Davis, he registered eight picks and 14 pass breakups across three seasons. Former linebacker turned defensive coordinator in Baltimore Zach Orr is going to adore this fourth-round selection.
It’s rare that a fifth-round pick at running back enters a team with a clear path to carries in Year 1. That’s precisely what’s happened with Blue. Of course newcomer Javonte Williams will be Dallas’ bell cow, at least to start the season, but the club’s running back depth chart was dangerously thin heading into the draft.
And while he’s not a super-bouncy, well-rounded back, Blue does possess 4.38 speed at close to 200 pounds — he fits right into a niche for the Cowboys, as the club’s big-play specialist on the ground.
At Texas, he had 23 runs of 10-plus yards in his final two seasons in Austin after Bijan Robinson left for the NFL. Behind what should be one of the better blocking units in the NFL, Blue is set up to succeed as a rookie once he locates a crease.
As is normally the case, post-makeover, the Seahawks look vastly different on offense. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp will lead the way at receiver, and Sam Darnold will be throwing them passes in 2025.
The JSN-Kupp duo may work, but both receivers win primarily out of the slot.
And this is where Horton comes in — during his illustrious five-year collegiate career, he aligned on the outside on 79.4% of his snaps. With tight splits and motion, we shouldn’t be as obsessed with the inside-outside delineation, however, there is something to be said for a rookie receiver who produced at an extremely high level while needing to combat opposing cornerbacks and the sideline more frequently than others.
At over 6-2 and around 200 pounds, Horton is spindly. He runs jagged, separation-creating routes and catches everything. On a team very top-heavy at receiver, this former Nevada and Colorado State star has the refined skill to take full advantage of a rookie-year opportunity in the Pacific Northwest.
There aren’t many teams that love long, thick, versatile defensive linemen more than the Packers. And that’s exactly who Brinson is up front. Plus, Green Bay has traditionally given minimal consideration to draft position when providing legitimate chances to see the field, and this former Georgia Bulldog wasn’t selected until the sixth round in April (see: Karl Brooks and Kingsley Enagbare).
At over 6-5 and 315 pounds with 80-plus inch arms, Brinson was born to two-gap and wreak havoc in the backfield. There’s some giddy-up to his game that makes him an intriguing rookie. If needed, he can erupt upfield in a one-gap situation and win. Specifically at the nose tackle position, Kenny Clark is entering the twilight of his career, and Brinson is really only battling former Georgia teammate Nazir Stackhouse for a backup role.
To me, Brinson is more naturally talented. He has the length and ferocious style to make waves a sixth-round pick in his rookie season in Green Bay.
