How damaging is a blowout loss?
It’s one of the big lessons we’ll learn when the College Football Playoff selection committee unveils its second rankings of the season on Tuesday night.
Specifically, we’re most interested in how the committee assesses Kentucky and Ole Miss. Both teams were ranked in the top 10 last week, and both teams suffered losses of 28 points or more on Saturday. If there’s a silver lining to the two bad results, at least they came against teams ranked No. 2 (Georgia) and No. 13 (Tennessee) headed into the weekend.
We know that both teams are going to drop. The question is how far?
The two-loss Wildcats still have two top-25 wins (LSU, South Carolina) and rank in the top 10 in both strength of record and strength of schedule. Is that enough to keep Kentucky in the 12-team field? It feels like it should, especially with how the committee has approached the top SEC teams thus far, but a drop outside the top 12 would leave no margin for error with a schedule that still includes Florida, Missouri and Louisville.
Ole Miss is in an even more precarious situation. Like the Wildcats, the Rebels have two impressive wins over top-25 opponents. A one-score loss to Texas isn’t bad. But the 42-7 loss to Georgia, coupled with an earlier 52-28 loss to Florida, is quite damaging. Ole Miss’ playoff hopes may now be hanging by a thread without much opportunity to solidify its resume.
If the committee ranks Ole Miss in the top 15, there’s still a faint hope. If Ole Miss lands behind teams like Iowa, USC and Oregon on Tuesday night, that’s a wrap.
No. 1 Georgia (8-1)
Best win: Alabama
After Miami’s loss over the weekend, the Bulldogs take over as the new top dog of the CFP. Georgia easily handled Ole Miss in one of the most impressive performances of the 2026 season.
No. 2 Utah (9-0)
Best win: BYU
If Georgia is an obvious No. 1, Utah is just as obvious a No. 2 in these rankings. The Utes move up after a 28-20 win over in-state rival BYU.
No. 3 Alabama (7-2)
Best win: Kentucky
The committee already loved Alabama even before its 31-13 road win over LSU. The Tide have three wins over top 25 teams.
No. 4 Indiana (8-1)
Best win: Northwestern
This is where it starts getting really interesting. The Hoosiers didn’t play last weekend, but their resume suffered a hit as 8 of their 9 Big Ten opponents this season all lost. I could see Notre Dame, Miami and Texas all in this No. 4 spot over Indiana.
No. 5 Notre Dame (8-1)
Best win: Miami
The Fighting Irish badly needed a resume-building win and got one over Miami (albeit without star receiver Malachi Toney). It should be enough to jump Notre Dame several spots after opening the rankings at No. 11 last week.
No. 6 Texas (7-2)
Best win: Ole Miss
The Longhorns may have the best resume in the country with ranked wins over Tennessee, Ole Miss, Ohio State and now Missouri. A win over LSU this weekend, and Texas is all but guaranteed a playoff spot.
No. 7 Miami (8-1)
Best win: Wake Forest
The Hurricanes should be fine — and the committee may not drop them this far without Toney — but the resume is missing a truly standout win other than a Week 2 win over Wake Forest. Miami does have good metrics, though, with the No. 4 strength-of-record in the country.
No. 8 UCLA (9-0)
Best win: Oregon
The undefeated Bruins have a great strength of record (No. 1) and an awful strength of schedule (No. 76). Illinois and USC are two more opportunities to add quality wins to a resume that needs them.
No. 9 Tennessee (7-2)
Best win: Alabama
The Volunteers crushed Kentucky, 34-6, to solidify themselves as a playoff team if the season ended today. The wins over Alabama and Kentucky are great, and the loss to South Carolina isn’t as bad today, as the Gamecocks continue to win.
No. 10 Kentucky (7-2)
Best win: LSU
How far the committee drops the Wildcats after a blowout loss could depend on whether it views the loss as an aberration or an indictment. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Kentucky outside the top 12, but the metrics remain very favorable, and the committee clearly appreciates how strong the SEC is this season.
No. 11 BYU (7-2)
Best win: Notre Dame
One of the toughest decisions the committee will make is how to gauge BYU versus Texas Tech. The Cougars have the better win (Notre Dame) but also the much worse loss (UCF). BYU has a much better game control rating and strength of schedule, while Texas Tech has the edge in strength of record. We’re giving BYU the slight edge here because the committee seems to value good wins more than bad losses.
No. 12 Texas Tech (8-1)
Best win: Houston
The Red Raiders are the first team out this week. Houston and Arizona continuing to win is a good sign for Texas Tech’s chances, as would be a berth in the Big 12 Championship.
No. 13 Wake Forest (8-1)
Best win: Louisville
The Demon Deacons move up a few spots because of teams ranked above them losing over the weekend. Wake Forest has an important game coming up against SMU.
No. 14 Ole Miss (6-3)
Best win: LSU
The 42-7 loss to Georgia was Ole Miss’ second blowout of the season, which is bad for game-control discussions, and there aren’t any big games left on the schedule. Ole Miss now only has a 10.3% chance to make the playoff, according to CBS Sports’ forecasting model.
No. 15 Houston (7-2)
Best win: Oklahoma State
The Cougars should move up a few spots after a win over Cincinnati. Houston’s playoff odds currently sit at 19.2%.
No. 16 Iowa (7-2)
Best win: Wisconsin
If the Hawkeyes keep winning, they’re going to have a shot to sneak into the playoff. The odds aren’t great (20%), but a 10-2 Iowa team would at least be in the conversation, especially if SEC and Big 12 teams keep beating up on each other.
No. 17 Oregon (6-3)
Best win: Ohio State
The Ducks have a head-to-head win over USC, which puts them one spot above the Trojans after beating Ohio State this weekend. The problem for Oregon is there isn’t a quality win left on the schedule, so it’ll need chaos to move up much more than this.
No. 18 USC (7-2)
Best win: Ohio State
The Trojans’ marquee win of the season, Ohio State, took a hit, which isn’t particularly helpful. But USC is still very much in the race, especially if it can get a win against either Indiana or UCLA this season.
No. 19 South Carolina (6-3)
Best win: Tennessee
Shane Beamer is dancing as the Gamecocks keep moving their way up the rankings. Florida losing this weekend hurts, but Tennessee’s big win over Kentucky bolsters South Carolina’s resume.
No. 20 Ohio State (6-3)
Best win: Indiana
While technically still in the mix, Ohio State’s playoff hopes died in a stunning home loss to Oregon last weekend. The committee will not give a Julian Sayin-less OSU team the benefit of the doubt.
No. 21 Arizona (7-2)
Best win: Cincinnati
The Wildcats’ resume is a bit thin but could get a big benefit with the Utah Utes up next.
No. 22 LSU (6-3)
Best win: Auburn
The Tigers badly need a win over Texas this weekend to have any hope of staying in the playoff hunt. The loss to Alabama was damaging.
No. 23 Boise State (8-1)
Best win: Memphis
The Broncos remain the pick to be the Group of Six’s representative in the playoff.
No. 24 Missouri (6-3)
Best win: Florida
The Tigers drop six spots after a hard-fought loss to Texas.
No. 25 Illinois (6-3)
Best win: Oregon
It’s not the top 15, Bret Bielema, but at least you’re on the list.
Bracket based on first CFP Rankings prediction
First round
Dec. 18-19 at higher seeds
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Notre Dame
No. 11 BYU at No. 6 Texas
No. 10 Kentucky at No. 7 Miami
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 UCLA
Quarterfinal matchups
Dec. 30 in Glendale, Ariz., Jan. 1 in Atlanta, Arlington, Texas, and Pasadena, Calif.
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 8 UCLA/No. 9 Tennessee winner
No. 2 Utah vs. No. 7 Miami/No. 10 Kentucky winner
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 6 Texas/No. 11 BYU winner
No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 5 Notre Dame/No. 12 Boise State winner
