The Big Ten, which was the driving force behind the push for a 24-team College Football Playoff, could use that expanded bracket now.
With Ohio State‘s convincing home loss to Oregon, the Big Ten is down to two playoff teams in the committee’s latest ranking: No. 9 Indiana, which dropped five spots during its bye week, and undefeated No. 4 UCLA, which earned a promotion following its gutsy road win at Minnesota.
The Big 12 has more teams in the latest top 12 than the Big Ten, with No. 2 Utah leading the way, followed by No. 10 BYU and No. 12 Texas Tech.
And with five teams still in the top 10, the SEC isn’t going anywhere. Miami‘s loss opened the door for Georgia to reassert itself and return the league to the top of the sport again.
Week 10 provided some clarity, but contenders still have time to build — or bust — their résumés. Separation, though, is starting to occur, and the Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. Teams with “would be in” status below are in this week’s bracket based on the selection committee’s second ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed “last team in” and “first team out.” These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled “still in the mix” haven’t been eliminated but have work to do. A team that is “out” will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’d receive, ranked from the most to least, based on Tuesday night’s selection committee top 25.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 6
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, Kentucky
Last team in: Kentucky (7-2). The Wildcats’ chances of reaching the SEC title game took a big hit after Saturday’s loss to Tennessee, but Kentucky is still ranked in the top six in ESPN’s strength of schedule and strength of record metrics. Kentucky still has a 36.5% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Wins against South Carolina, LSU and Oklahoma are keeping Kentucky in the conversation for now. The Wildcats have one more chance at a signature win to impress the committee — Nov. 21 at Missouri — but ESPN’s FPI gives the Wildcats only a 38.3% chance to win. Kentucky can’t afford a third loss.
First team out: South Carolina (6-3). At No. 17, the three-loss Gamecocks seem like a stretch, but they host Georgia on Nov. 21 and that could change the playoff picture. ESPN’s FPI gives South Carolina only a 20% chance to win that game, though, and a 5.5% chance to reach the playoff. Head-to-head losses to Alabama and Kentucky will be a factor, but a road win at in-state rival Clemson to end the regular season would boost the Gamecocks’ résumé, as would a win against Georgia.
Still in the mix: LSU (6-3), Ole Miss (6-3). The difference between No. 21 LSU and No. 19 Ole Miss — despite the head-to-head — is that the Tigers can still change the SEC race and, in turn, the playoff picture with wins against Texas and Tennessee over the next two weeks. ESPN’s FPI gives LSU at least a 50% chance to win each of its three remaining games, including the regular-season finale at Arkansas. LSU is No. 5 in overall efficiency and has the No. 9-ranked remaining strength of schedule. Ole Miss’s remaining schedule ranks No. 54.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Big Ten
Would be in: UCLA, Indiana
Last team in: Indiana (8-1). The Hoosiers sank from No. 4 to No. 9 during their bye week, which puts them just out of range of hosting a first-round game. The committee didn’t punish IU for not playing but rewarded the teams above it that boosted their résumés with statement wins. Indiana doesn’t have any wins against CFP top 25 teams, and its strength of schedule is average at No. 42. IU’s narrow home loss to the Buckeyes is starting to look worse now that Ohio State has dropped to No. 20. Still, the Hoosiers have a 64.6% chance to reach the Big Ten title game and a 43.6% chance to win it, according to ESPN Analytics.
First team out: Iowa (7-2). The No. 15 Hawkeyes made a move Tuesday night, jumping four spots after some upsets above them, particularly in the SEC. The committee respects wins against opponents above .500, and Iowa has four (Michigan, Washington, Wisconsin and Northwestern). The Hawkeyes are No. 13 in overall efficiency and have been particularly strong on defense (No. 7).
Still in the mix: Oregon (6-3), USC (7-2), Ohio State (6-3), Wisconsin (6-3). They all still have at least a 4% chance of reaching the Big Ten championship game. Behind UCLA and Indiana, Oregon (27.3%) has the next-best chance, followed by Ohio State (19.6%) as the only other team above 10%.
Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Washington
Big 12
Would be in: Utah, BYU
Last team in: BYU (7-2). The committee dropped No. 10 BYU only one spot following its loss to Utah, and the Cougars are lifted by wins against No. 5 Notre Dame and No. 23 Arizona. BYU has a 19.4% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, fourth best behind Utah, Texas Tech and Houston. At this point, BYU likely has to win the Big 12 to reach the CFP. BYU has a bad loss at UCF but also one of the country’s best wins against Notre Dame, and that is why it’s still hanging on to the bubble.
First team out: Texas Tech (8-1). The No. 12 Red Raiders would be out of the playoff if it were today because the No. 12 seed would go to No. 24 Boise State as the highest-ranked Group of 6 team. Texas Tech struggled to beat West Virginia and is No. 16 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, but because it has only one loss — and wins against No. 14 Houston and No. 23 Arizona — it’s back in the conversation this week. Texas Tech is the most likely opponent to face Utah in the Big 12 title game, and the Big 12 champ is guaranteed a spot in the CFP. This could be fleeting, though, as the Red Raiders have back-to-back road trips to No. 25 Oklahoma State and Baylor. The FPI gives Texas Tech less than a 50% chance to beat Oklahoma State, and a second loss would almost certainly knock the Red Raiders out of contention.
Still in the mix: Houston (7-2), Arizona (7-2), Oklahoma State (6-3). All three of these teams have at least a 4% chance to reach the playoff, and that’s because each still has at least an 11% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics.
Out: Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami (8-1). The loss to Notre Dame knocked the Canes out of the No. 1 spot in the bracket, but at No. 7, they are still a playoff team on track to lock up a spot as the ACC champion. Miami has a 99.9% chance to reach the ACC championship game and 74.3% chance to win it, according to ESPN Analytics. Because of that, no team in the country (including Georgia, Alabama and Notre Dame) has a better chance to reach the playoff (97.2%). The Canes also have the highest chance to earn a first-round bye (73.7%) and are one of four teams with at least a 14% chance to win the national title (16.6%).
First team out: Wake Forest (8-1). At No. 13, the Deacs are a true bubble team and could get bumped up if more upsets happen above them this month and they continue to win. Some committee members probably hesitated to give Wake Forest more credit this week after a win against FCS program Merrimack, but wins against SMU and Duke later this month would help the Deacs’ résumé. Wake Forest is on track to face Miami in the ACC title game, but the Demon Deacons’ toughest remaining regular-season matchup is on Saturday at SMU. The FPI gives Wake Forest a 59.3% chance to win. Wake’s current schedule strength is No. 60, but the Deacs are ranked No. 6 in overall efficiency. They can lock up a spot in the playoff with the ACC title but will fall into the “out” category with a second loss — especially if it happens at SMU.
Still in the mix: SMU (7-2). The Mustangs are here because they still have a 17.3% chance to reach the ACC championship game, and that will increase with a win Saturday against Wake Forest. With losses to Louisville and Syracuse, SMU’s only path to the playoff is through the ACC title, but the Mustangs could also play the role of spoiler with an upset win at Notre Dame on Nov. 21.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame (8-1). Barring a catastrophic upset this month, Notre Dame is a lock for the CFP after its win against Miami. The Irish vaulted to No. 5 ahead of Texas, which was significant because they now are in position to host a first-round game. Here’s the reality: It doesn’t matter how it happened, what officiating calls impacted the game, that Miami was without injured Heisman hopeful Malachi Toney, or exactly where in the top 12 Notre Dame lands on Selection Day. All that matters is Notre Dame being in the top 12 guarantees it a spot in the field on Selection Day. Notre Dame has a 92.2% chance to reach the CFP — fourth best in the country, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Notre Dame also has at least a 90% chance to win each of its last three games (vs. Boston College, vs. SMU and at Syracuse).
Group of 6
Would be in: Boise State (8-1). The Broncos remain the most likely representative from a Group of 6 conference, as they continue to be the only team ranked in the committee’s top 25 following a 64-38 win at Colorado State. The Broncos lead the Group of 6 contenders with a 66.5% chance to reach the CFP — well above New Mexico at 25.2%. The FPI gives Boise State at least an 81% chance to win each of its remaining games (home against Oregon State and San Diego State).
Still in the mix: New Mexico (8-1). The 8-1 Lobos’ only loss was a 14-6 defeat Sept. 19 at Oklahoma. New Mexico’s biggest problem is not the loss but its No. 108-ranked strength of schedule and No. 103-ranked remaining schedule. Boise State’s close loss at No. 16 Oregon is also probably viewed as a better road defeat in the committee meeting room than New Mexico’s close loss at Oklahoma. Oregon continues to creep up the ranking, while the Sooners are still unranked.
Bracket
Based on the CFP selection committee’s second ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 2 Utah (Big 12 champ)
No. 3 Alabama
No. 4 UCLA (Big Ten champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 18 and 19
No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 Notre Dame
No. 11 Kentucky at No. 6 Texas
No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Tennessee
Quarterfinal games
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.
No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 4 UCLA
No. 11 Kentucky/No. 6 Texas winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 BYU/No. 7 Miami winner vs. No. 2 Utah
No. 9 Indiana/No. 8 Tennessee winner vs. No. 1 Georgia
