It is officially spooky season, but for college football fans we’re living in seventh heaven. The week is absolutely loaded across the sport, and it affords us the opportunity to continue to learn about teams.
That’s what mid-October should be all about: getting to know why teams are real and which aren’t. The junk filters out as conference play gets going, and the buy games are a thing of the past. It’s an important part of the calendar as the ramp-up to the first College Football Playoff rankings truly begins.
And it’s punctuated by weeks like this.
Outside of Ohio State vs. Indiana, perhaps there isn’t truly a marquee matchup, but there are important things to be found across the schedule outside of that mammoth top-10 matchup.
But this is also where a key part of the discourse is built for the playoff race itself. The SEC teams you thought were really good because they were highly ranked in September? Well, they’re about to start beating up on one another the deeper into conference play we get (Florida, Ole Miss, LSU on notice there).
So what does one do with that information? The SEC would like you to do what benefits them. Look carefully at how the narrative begins, and you’ll surely see the parity throughout the next few weeks. Because their losses matter but yours don’t. And their parity below the best teams matters, while yours doesn’t (mostly looking at you, Big Ten). Those questions will linger throughout the next few weeks. So what questions get answered across the nation in Week 7?
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1. Ohio State vs. Indiana
How far off last year’s pace are the Hoosiers, really?
This is not the Indiana of last season. They’ve yet to showcase a true penchant for tearing decent teams limb from limb like they have the last few seasons. They beat Ohio State last year in the Big Ten Championship Game, but they come into this one after surviving a road test against Nebraska.
Indiana’s defensive front is fearsome, and Ohio State’s own issues running the ball are expected to be laid bare, but with No. 4 in Scarlet and Gray, Indiana’s back seven risks being significantly exposed. Curt Cignetti called Jeremiah Smith a freak earlier this week. The game is at home, which should help the Hoosiers, but don’t count on busts to bail out the Indiana passing game like the Cornhuskers so kindly gave IU last week. Can they stay efficient down-to-down, or will Josh Hoover’s turnovers rear their ugly head?
2. Florida vs. Texas
What’s really wrong with Texas‘ offense?
Arch Manning gets the headlines, and the issues typically fall at the quarterback’s feet on offense, but there are more underlying concerns that are at the bedrock of Texas’s offense. To get where the Longhorns want to go, they have to run the ball more efficiently than they are right now on early downs (first and second down). According to TruMedia, Texas ranks 110th in stuff percentages on running back runs among teams when filtering to FBS competition only.
Overall, their numbers for stuff rate, EPA per rush, yards before contact, and yards after contact are simply woeful. They’re 88th in rushing yards per game and 117th in yards per rush. They are simply stuck in the mud with a down-to-down drive efficiency rate because they can’t run the ball, and it’s giving the passing game no help. A lot of resources went into Texas’ rushing attack this season, in the form of Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown.
If Texas can run the ball better against the Gators, and they might, because Florida’s defense has shown it is not up to the task in many ways this season, it could be the get-right game UT needs to quiet the noise, if only for a week.
3. Alabama vs. Tennessee
How much of a limiting factor is the Vols’ QB situation?
The uniforms will be neutral, but will Tennessee bring its offense to the party to match the sartorial success? The quarterback conundrum continues out of Knoxville, and it remains to be seen what George MacIntyre can do for the Vols if he’s QB1. The early returns against a bad Arkansas team last week did not exactly leave much room for optimism. Bama went shot for shot with Georgia and came out on the wrong end of the scoreboard [Insert acknowledging the bad pass interference call]. How does Alabama put that behind them for the rivalry tilt?
4. Missouri vs. Ole Miss
Did the Rebels actually fix that defense in the bye week?
Welcome back home, Austin Simmons. With plenty of players and coaches on the other sideline that Simmons is familiar with, how does the return home go for the former Rebel? He’s downplaying it, of course, but it will always matter.
One of the most important things about the matchup is how Ole Miss’ defense stands up against Missouri. Simmons is fun as a passer, but Mizzou wants to do one thing first and foremost: pound the rock. With a zone run scheme that hasn’t missed a beat in Ahmad Hardy’s unfortunate absence, as the emergence of Jamal Roberts comes to the forefront, Florida tore apart the Rebels’ run D. For Missouri’s own tremendous run defense, how does it stand up to Ole Miss’ rushing attack, which has Kewan Lacy back, theoretically much closer to full strength than he was last week?
5. UCLA vs. Wisconsin
Does the QB injury matter?
Nico Iamaleava is likely out for the season, and it’s not clear exactly how much that will affect UCLA’s offense. This is not a team that has been getting the job done with a particularly prolific passing game. In fact, only 12 teams in the country pass at a lower clip than the Bruins, and three of them are the service academies. What does Ty Dieffenbach have as the Bruins face a surprisingly good Wisconsin defense, which has found its form mainly by short-circuiting opponents’ passing attacks?
6. Oklahoma State vs. Houston
Is the loser out of the Big 12 race?
Don’t let this game fly under the radar because this is a really cool Big 12 gut check. On paper, both teams are evenly matched. Both offenses are good. Both defenses are a little less so, but this is one of the two or three most important games in deciding the Big 12 race overall, as both of these two teams seem primed to take a spot in Arlington, Texas, if either BYU or Texas Tech falters. Oklahoma State does not play BYU, but gets Tech on Nov. 18. Houston lost to Tech, but doesn’t play BYU either. The conference race will be crowded, and this will be one we point back to at season’s end that helped decide it.
7. Notre Dame vs. BYU
What happens when the Irish are properly tested?
Welcome to the party, Notre Dame. The Irish have seemingly taken the last five weeks off since their game against Wisconsin. If you’d forgotten about them, you would certainly be forgiven.
Heading into the season, it was clear Notre Dame’s season would more or less boil down to two games: this one and Miami on Nov. 7. If they lose this game, their margin of error vaporizes, and the Miami game becomes a binary exercise for playoff inclusion, for all intents and purposes. Notre Dame found out the hard way what the downsides of a soft schedule are in their specific independent case and that one posed much tougher tests than this one did.
BYU will be without its best player, LJ Martin, and, so far this season, has been missing a truly explosive element in the passing game. Playing Notre Dame when you’re anything approaching one-dimensional is not a recipe for success.
