Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
Key links: Sports betting home | MLB odds page | NFL odds page
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August 4: Baldwin favorite, Misiorowski falling in NL ROY race
Doug Greenberg: How quickly things can change in the world of MLB awards betting.
At the All-Star break, Milwaukee Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski was the hottest first-year player in baseball and a -220 favorite to win National League Rookie of the Year as MLB began its second half.
Since then, “The Miz” has failed to go more than four innings in either of his two starts and landed on the injured list with a tibia contusion on Sunday. He lost the odds lead in the NL ROY market on July 27 and was +225 before his injury, then dropped to +750 upon the IL news and +900 as of Monday midday, according to ESPN BET odds.
Part of the reason for Misirowski’s descent is the rapid ascent of Atlanta Braves catcher Drake Baldwin; in nine games before passing Misirowski as the odds leader, Baldwin posted a .350 OBP with nine RBI, and has hit safely in all but three games since the All-Star break. As of Monday, he is the -220 odds leader for NL Rookie of the Year.
That should work out fine for sportsbooks, who had built up liability on Misirowski since his June breakout. BetMGM reports the 23-year-old as its largest liability with 24.3% of the handle, while Baldwin has the second-most at 17.0% of the money. Both players began the season with 50-1 odds at the sportsbook.
BetMGM reports its most tickets (10.7%) on Chicago Cubs third baseman Matt Shaw, who is up to 25-1 odds at ESPN BET. Other contenders in the market include Miami Marlins catcher Agustin Ramirez and Brewers outfielder Isaac Collins, both at +600.
July 31: NFL betting picks up, Lions slight favorite in HOF game
Doug Greenberg: As we get into the middle of summer, sports betting’s biggest behemoth awakens from its slumber.
NFL football returns Thursday night when the Los Angeles Chargers take on the Detroit Lions for the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio. The annual kickoff to the league’s preseason provides a jolt to the sports betting market at a time of year that is otherwise somewhat quiet.
“As fans, we’re all excited for football to be back, and the Hall of Fame brings a little extra pop as the first live action of the season,” ESPN BET director of North American sports trading Adrian Horton said over email. “It’s always among the most-bet games of the preseason, and we expect this year to be no different.”
The book reports that last year’s HOF game, a 21-17 win for the Chicago Bears over the Houston Texans that ended in the third quarter due to inclement weather, was the second-most bet game of the preseason behind a nationally-televised contest between the New England Patriots and Washington Commanders in the final week.
BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini expects Thursday’s game “to definitely be the most popular event of the day for bettors.” That said, DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello says that the game “performs well,” but not to the extent of a regular-season game.
The most popular play of the night, according to ESPN BET, is Lions money line, priced at -125 as of midday Thursday. The book reports 72.7% of ML bets and 66.4% of handle backing Detroit, and it would appear that any bettors looking to support Los Angeles are doing so on the spread, which has garnered 57.9% of the money.
That number sits at +2 at ESPN BET, but there is much turmoil and little consensus market-wide; the sportsbook had the number at +1.5 Thursday morning, while DraftKings had it at +0.5 as of Thursday midday.
“We know starters often play limited snaps — if any — so it is important we understand team depth and who will actually be on the field,” Avello said over email. “We also look closely at coaching tendencies, as some staffs place a higher value on winning preseason games than others.”
One of the more interesting intricacies of NFL preseason handicapping is the formulation of the over/under, which comes in at a very low 33.5; for comparison, the lowest total for Week 1 of the regular season is 38.5. Per usual, however, the public is backing the over with a majority of the wagers and handle, which pushed the number up from 32.5.
The mix of few usual starters playing and fringe players fighting for roster spots also means that offering player props isn’t exactly feasible for sportsbooks. However, they say that game props have proven to be decently popular in the early action.
“We price preseason games by looking at what coaches are saying in the leadup to the game, deciding how much we want to buy in to those narratives, looking at stats from prior seasons or college and watching any available tape on the players we anticipate will see the field,” a FanDuel trader said. “It’s a fun process of learning about new players, and it’s a great opportunity for bettors as we work to make sure we’re bringing a competitive offering to our customers.”
July 24: Betting public sides with Texas over Ohio State in early action
David Purdum: The betting public is siding with the underdog Texas Longhorns in their Week 1 showdown at Ohio State.
The Buckeyes opened as a 3-point favorite over visiting Texas, but a little over a month ahead of the August 30 kickoff, an increasing number of sportsbooks have trimmed the point spread down to Ohio State -2.5. Texas has attracted greater than 65% of the money bet on the game’s point spread this offseason at ESPN BET.
The early money-line action is lopsided on the Longhorns, with BetMGM reporting on Wednesday that 96% of the money that had been wagered on the outright winner is on Texas.
The Longhorns and Buckeyes are co-favorites to win the College Football Playoff, each listed at +550 at ESPN BET. Some shops have Ohio State as the favorites, while others have Texas. The Longhorns have not entered a season as the national title favorite this century, according to ESPN Research.
The largest national title bet reported by BetMGM is on the Longhorns, a $300,000 wager at 5-1 placed June 24 in Arizona, a bet that would pay a net $1.5 million if Texas wins the College Football Playoff.
Other Week 1 notable games and lines:
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Alabama is a 13.5-point favorite over Florida State in an opener that has attracted more bets than any other game at ESPN BET, including Texas-Ohio State.
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Notre Dame is a 3-point favorite at rival Miami.
Odds & Ends
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Only one preseason betting favorite has gone onto to win the national championship in the College Football Playoff era (Alabama in 2017), according to ESPN Research.
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Eight teams are odds-on favorites at ESPN BET to reach the College Football Playoff: Ohio State (-400), Texas (-300), Oregon (-280), Georgia (-260) Penn State (-250), Clemson (-160), Alabama (-160) and Notre Dame (-185).
Most bet NCAAF Week 1 games (by number of bets at ESPN BET)
1. Alabama at Florida State
2. Texas at Ohio State
3. Notre Dame at Miami
4. Syracuse vs. Tennessee
5. LSU at Clemson
Most bet NCAAF Week 0 and 1 games (by total amount wagered at ESPN BET)
1. Utah at UCLA
2. Texas at Ohio State
3. Georgia Tech at Colorado
4. Alabama at Florida State
5. Notre Dame at Miami
July 22: Cowboys’ season win total at sportsbooks lowest in over 20 years
Purdum: Oddsmakers’ expectations for the Dallas Cowboys haven’t been this low in over 20 years.
The Cowboys’ season win total opened at 8.5 in March at ESPN BET. That number would last only a few days, as enough money was bet on the under to cause the number to drop to 7.5, where it stands as Dallas prepares to kick off training camp. It’s the lowest preseason win total for a Cowboys team since 2003.
The betting action, however, has been lopsided on the over since ESPN BET moved down to 7.5, with greater than 85% of the bets on Dallas to reach at least eight wins.
The Cowboys are 50-1 to win the Super Bowl and 25-1 to win the NFC — both their longest preseason odds since 2014 — and they are heavy favorites (-240) to miss the playoffs.
Seventeen teams have attracted more money wagered to win the Super Bowl than the Cowboys at ESPN BET.
Odds & Ends
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More money has been bet on the over on the Kansas City Chiefs‘ season win total (11.5) at ESPN BET than has been bet on any other team this offseason.
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Nine of the 10 most popular season win total bets by money wagered at ESPN BET are overs. Under 5.5 wins for the New York Giants is the only under to crack the top 10.
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The Buffalo Bills have attracted the most Super Bowl bets, but the defending-champion Philadelphia Eagles have garnered the most money wagered to win the Super Bowl at ESPN BET.
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The teams that have attracted the least amount of money to win the Super Bowl: Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints, Tennessee Titans.
