The 2026 men’s basketball tournament rolls into the second round Saturday with some giant matchups. Which are the games to bet on?
Throughout the tourney, I will provide my best bets for each round as well as my picks for the new ESPN Men’s Tournament Challenge Eliminator game.
Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
at time of Friday’s publication and subject to change.
Saturday’s best bets
(3) Michigan State -4.5 (-112) vs. (6) Louisville
Game time: 2:45 p.m. ET
The Spartans’ defense is the key here. Offensively, I don’t expect Michigan State to duplicate its 59% shooting from the field recorded against North Dakota State. But the Spartans’ defense will be equally menacing. It should be no surprise that Louisville shot 54% from the field and 52% from the 3-point range, but that won’t be the case against the Spartans’ D, which is 13th in adjusted efficiency. Louisville has played against a team in the top 20 in defensive efficiency six times this season and it has lost five times, with the only win coming over offensively inept Cincinnati. The Cardinals almost blew a 23-point lead in the second half. I’ll play against the 3-point variance of Louisville here and back the Spartans.
(1) Duke team total OVER 75.5 (-125) vs. (9) TCU
Game time: 5:15 p.m. ET
Saturday’s Eliminator pick
The Commodores’ elite shooting and inside presence are worth backing. It’s telling that the lower-seeded team is favored here. I’m also willing to play against Nebraska’s 3-point variance and the high of its first-ever NCAA tournament win.
How to play ESPN Eliminator Challenge
Sunday’s best bets
Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook at time of Saturday’s publication and subject to change.
(1) Arizona -11.5 (-110) vs. (9) Utah State
Game time: 7:50 p.m. ET (truTV)
The Wildcats were beyond impressive against Long Island, dominating both offensively and defensively. Utah State, on the other hand, needed to shoot 55% from the field — combined with Villanova scoring just three total points over the last 6:04 of the game — to steal a come-from-behind win in its first game. What stands out to me here is that this line feels short. Arizona was laying this same 11.5 to BYU, a better team in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin, which says a lot. The Wildcats were also favored by 9.5 over Kansas, which is 21st in adjusted efficiency margin. Add in the Aggies’ poor 3-point shooting defense (214th in the nation), and Arizona should overwhelm them over the course of 40 minutes.
(7) Kentucky vs. (2) Iowa State OVER 145.5 (-110)
Game time: 2:45 p.m. ET (CBS)
Kentucky needed overtime to escape Santa Clara, and Iowa State won easily over Tennessee State but likely lost All-American forward Joshua Jefferson in the process. Even without Jefferson, I still like the Iowa State offense here. The Cyclones are excellent from 3-point range, making 38.9% from beyond the arc, and I don’t see Kentucky being able to slow them down. Santa Clara shot 41% from the field and still managed to score 73 points in regulation against the Wildcats.
Led by Otega Oweh, who is coming off a 35-point performance, Kentucky will use its pace and size to score. And while the Cyclones don’t play fast overall on offense, they average just 16.6 seconds per offensive possession, which is 68th in the country. Kentucky will do the rest on offense here. If these teams shoot to their season average, they should get over this number.
Sunday’s Eliminator pick
Iowa State
The Cyclones are a question mark as we go forward because of Jefferson’s injury status, so it’s best to use them now. If they get deeper, the possible loss of Jefferson would loom even larger. Plus, I don’t see Iowa State coming out of this bracket.
