The New York Yankees will be without franchise slugger and two-time reigning American League MVP Aaron Judge for weeks and perhaps months. The club announced on Thursday that Judge — after multiple examinations and initial fears about the possibility of thoracic outlet syndrome — has been diagnosed with a stress fracture of the first rib on his right side.
The injury will be treated with rest and limited activity, and according to the club, Judge will undergo imaging in four to six weeks with the expectation that he will return to action “at some point this season.” The imaging timeline suggests Judge could be out at least until August, given his need to build back up to game speed after the next round of testing and once he’s cleared for a return to baseball activities.
Judge has been dealing with discomfort for a significant chunk of the season and has sat out the team’s last three games, including Thursday afternoon’s win over the Cleveland Guardians. Manager Aaron Boone told reporters that Judge, who underwent both an MRI and a CT scan earlier this week, was visiting a specialist in Dallas and that the team was awaiting the findings of that appointment. The Yankees will place Judge on the 10-day injured list on Friday prior to the start of their home series against the Boston Red Sox. At some point, Judge figures to be transferred to the 60-day IL, which would open up a spot on the 40-player roster.
To state the obvious, the loss of Judge for such an extended period of time is a grave blow to the Yankees:
In 59 games and 261 plate appearances, Judge, in this, his age-34 campaign, has put up an OPS+ of 152. His 17 home runs at this writing rank third in the AL. While those aren’t quite customary MVP Judge numbers, they’re excellent by almost any other standard. Judge started the season hot with 15 homers and an OPS of 1.066 over his first 37 games. But in the 22 games since, those numbers dipped to just two home runs and a .649 OPS.
The Yankees right now narrowly lead the majors in home runs and rank second in OPS and fifth in runs scored. That’s a strong offensive attack, but it’s also a lineup that gets thin quickly after you move past the top four or five spots. The loss of Judge greatly exacerbates that lineup depth problem.
How can the Yankees move forward without Judge?
There’s plainly no replacing a player like Judge. “Best hitter in the sport,” manager Aaron Boone said on Thursday before Judge’s diagnosis was known. “And obviously what he means to us. There’s a void there. We also have really good players who can pick it up, too.”
On that latter front, Jazz Chisholm Jr., after a brutal start to the season, has started rounding into form, and the Yankees will need him to continue doing that. Ben Rice has been one of the AL’s best hitters this season, and there’s now more pressure on him to keep that up. Trent Grisham’s underlying batted-ball data suggest he should have better top-line numbers this season, and as such, there’s reason to think he’ll improve in the weeks to come. Catcher remains a sinkhole.
As for replacing Judge directly, the Yankees figure to recall hulking slugger Spencer Jones to take Judge’s spot on the roster and in right field. Jones has big-time raw power, but his strikeout issues continue to undermine that power. He made his debut earlier this season, and he didn’t fare well across a very limited sample:
There’s also 23-year-old Jasson Domínguez, the Yankees’ outfield prospect who was ballyhooed before Jones came along. He’s sidelined with a shoulder injury right now, but he’s set to begin a minor league rehab assignment on Friday. After he returns, it could be an in-season battle between him and Jones to see who’s the everyday right fielder while Judge is on ice. In 561 big-league plate appearances spread over three seasons, Domínguez has a slash line of .245/.323/.396 with 17 home runs and 22 doubles. It goes without saying that neither Jones nor Domínguez is likely to replicate Judge’s production, even his modestly diminished 2026 level of production.
The grim reality for the Yankees is that since 2020, they have a .585 winning percentage with a plus-748 run differential with Judge in the lineup. Without Judge in the lineup, those respective figures fall to .468 and minus-42.
Going into the weekend, the Yankees are 37-25. That’s good for second place in the AL East, just a half-game behind the Tampa Bay Rays. That puts the Yankees in the top wild card position, and they have a hefty seven-game cushion when it comes to playoff position. So there’s margin for error, but the loss of a hitter like Judge will probably be keenly felt at some point.
The Yankees just have to hope that reinforcements find their best selves and that other hitters already in the lineup pick up the rest of the slack. That’s a lot to ask.
