Few teams in baseball have invested as much, both in terms of player payroll and traded prospects, in their roster as the San Diego Padres, but that investment has yet to yield a World Series championship, or even a National League pennant. Wednesday’s defeat at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers (MIL 3, SD 1) completed the NLDS loss and sends the Padres home for the offseason. It is the third straight year San Diego has lost in the NLDS or Wild Card Series.
The NLDS was closer than the outcome may lead you to believe. The Padres had chances to win Games 1 and 2 at American Family Field, but, credit to the Brewers, they beat San Diego’s best. Setup man Adrian Morejon gave up the go-ahead home run in Game 1 and all-world closer Mason Miller gave up the walk-off single in Game 2. They pulled off a victory in Game 3 but couldn’t get enough offense across the board in Game 4 to keep the miracle going. The Padres were ultimately done in by sloppy defense, a starting pitching shortage, and the inability to tack on runs once they had a lead.
San Diego went 91-71 during the regular season and an MLB-best 41-18 after the admittedly arbitrary date of July 23. It is clearly a talented roster that can win now, though many of their core players are in their 30s and signed long-term at big money (Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado). Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr., and rookie catcher Ethan Salas are the 20-something building blocks. The core of the roster in place. It’s the supporting cast that must be assembled.
President of baseball operations A.J. Preller received a contract extension in February and seems safe despite the relatively quick postseason exit. He is baseball’s second-longest tenured head baseball operations executive, behind only Brian Cashman of the New York Yankees, but at some point his seat will become warm (or warmer, really). This offseason might be his last chance to build a World Series-winning roster. Here are three questions facing Preller and the Padres this winter.
1. How much will the new ownership spend?
The Seidler family sold the Padres to husband and wife José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones for the staggering sum of $3.9 billion earlier this year. It was a record sale price for an MLB franchise at the time (the Los Angeles Angels have since sold for $4 billion). “We are all in. It’s not lip service. We are absolutely committed to this organization and we are absolutely overjoyed,” Jones said in August (via MLB.com). Feliciano added: “We need to win the World Series. It’s that simple.”
The late Peter Seidler invested significantly in the Padres. He raised payroll from $71 million in 2017 to a franchise-record $257 million in 2023, and that investment created a competitive team and energized the fan base. The Padres have topped the three million mark in attendance five times in their history: 2004, the first year of Petco Park, and the last four seasons. The Padres generate so much revenue now that they now pay into MLB’s revenue-sharing program, not take money out.
San Diego’s payroll has leveled off in the $220 million range over the last three years (Peter Seidler died in November 2023) and, if you take Feliciano and Jones at their word, payroll won’t be coming down anytime soon. “We are taking on (Peter Seidler’s) legacy at a great time, but I think there’s always more that you can do. You can always leave the world a slightly better place than you found it. That’s our aim,” Feliciano said in August (via MLB.com).
Feliciano and Jones aren’t oblivious to the roster they purchased and I don’t believe they spent nearly $4 billion on the Padres to pull back on payroll. The question is exactly how much Preller will have to spend this winter. Is $220 million or so the target again? Will payroll go up? Come down slightly? The great unknown is the upcoming competitive balance agreement, which could come with a salary cap that sets a payroll limit for Feliciano and Jones if the owners get their way.
The Padres already have $196 million on the books for 2027, the eighth most in baseball, according to FanGraphs‘ calculations. Their key free agents include Morejon, Ty France, and possibly Michael King and Nick Pivetta. None will be easy to replace and several, specifically King and Morejon, will be pricey to retain. Year 1 of an ownership group is always telling and we’re about to find out how committed Feliciano and Jones really are to building a winner.
2. How can they build out the rotation?
The Padres could, conceivably, lose their five best starting pitchers to free agency this offseason. Trade deadline pickups Casey Mize and Robbie Ray were rentals. Walker Buehler is signed to a one-year contract. King can opt out of the two years and $58 million remaining on his contract. Pivetta’s flexor injury this year triggered a clause that gives the Padres the ability to opt out of the two years and $28 million remaining on his contract.
For argument’s sake, let’s assume King opts out (that seems likely) and the Padres decline their option on Pivetta (that decision is less certain). In that case, San Diego’s rotation depth chart would look like this going into the offseason:
- RHP Joe Musgrove (missed 2025-26 with Tommy John surgery)
- RHP Yu Darvish (missed 2026 with UCL surgery, has mulled retirement)
- RHP Randy Vásquez
- LHP JP Sears
- RHP Jhony Brito
Musgrove rejoined the Padres as a reliever this postseason and should have a normal offseason that allows him to report to spring training as a starting pitcher. Darvish’s future is uncertain. Vásquez is a solid back-end starter more than a foundational piece. Brito and Sears are depth arms who didn’t get much big-league time this season despite the team’s pitching issues, and aren’t certain to survive the usual 40-man roster clean-up proceedings this offseason.
Pivetta has pitched well enough since returning from his injury last month. Two years and $28 million is a reasonable price for a solid starting pitcher these days, so unless the Padres have serious concerns about Pivetta’s health, I bet they pick up the option and bring him back. King could return too, though I would expect him to at least leverage his opt-out into a better deal, presumably one that adds a few years rather than raises his annual salary.
The thing is, though, that the Padres would still need more rotation help even if King and Pivetta do return. That’s why they had to go get Mize and Ray at the trade deadline. It’s a decent enough free-agent class for starting pitchers. More than anything, the Padres need Vásquez to cement himself as a no-doubt starter moving forward, and a prospect like Luis Gutierrez or Jagger Haynes to emerge as a viable option. San Diego badly needs cheap rotation depth.
3. Will they make Mason Miller available?
The best and most straightforward way to upgrade multiple roster spots is a Miller trade. His name popped up in trade rumors at the deadline because teams asked about him and not because the Padres shopped him, and you can be sure teams will come calling again this offseason. Miller, 28, is under team control through 2029. He is irreplaceable and keeping him would be completely justifiable. At the same time, Preller wouldn’t be doing his job if he didn’t at least listen, you know?
Just about every contender would have interest in Miller, and even some noncontenders. I would expect the Yankees, Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, and, yes, the rival Los Angeles Dodgers to show the most interest. The ideal trade package would bring back two controllable starting pitchers and a third piece, possibly an outfielder to put an end to the left field revolving door.
Whether a team meets that asking price, and if that asking price is even reasonable, is another matter. As good as they were this season — 91 wins were the sixth most in baseball — the Padres have needs up and down the roster. Trading Miller for multiple young players would be one way to address several of those needs at once, even if it would leave a big hole at the back of the bullpen. My guess is Miller surfaces in trade rumors this offseason, but the Padres ultimately keep him.
