We’re now through two games in each of the four divisional series in the 2026 Major League Baseball playoffs and three of the series have a team leading two games to none. It’s a best-of-five round, so three series are now on the verge of being sweeps.
Of the three teams in that 2-0 hole — the Guardians, Padres and Yankees — which has the best shot to come back and win?
Before we dive in and rank their chances, it needs to be said that it is a total long shot for any of these three teams to win. The most likely scenario is that all three lose their series. Only 10 teams have ever come back from being down 2-0 in a five-game series in MLB history, with the most recent being the 2017 Yankees. It has only happened three times since 2003.
3. San Diego Padres
They used Michael King in Game 2, ran through all their big bullpen arms in the first two games and still came away with zero wins. It sure feels over. Much like when the Brewers got a runner on base and he stole second in the ninth, they feel inevitable here after a 103-win regular season and so many comebacks, not to mention winning any which way is necessary in any given game.
On the Padres‘ end, they do get to return home to Petco Park, which was Vibes Central in the Wild Card Series against the Cubs. Nick Pivetta looked pretty good, and with the day off between Games 2 and 3, the Padres will have a full complement of bullpen arms available for Game 3. Win one game and you never know, right?
It should also be noted that the Brewers have a drastic fall off in starting pitching after Games 1 and 2 starters Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson.
While the series is very likely ending up with the Brewers, it’s certainly in “you’re telling me there’s a chance?” range.
2. Cleveland Guardians
I more strongly believe in the Padres than the Guardians, but the task is different here because the Guardians are facing an 84-win regular-season team while the Padres deal with the mighty Brewers. The White Sox are a good team, but definitely not a great one. They are surviving mostly on bullpen games and have done a great job, going 4-0 in the playoffs so far. Simple logic tells us, however, that an 84-win team that has gone 4-0 in road playoff games means that, at some point, there’s a regression coming, right?
Of course, that regression might not come this round. The Guardians aren’t exactly a juggernaut in their own right, being an 85-win regular-season team.
With Parker Messick waiting in Game 4, the Guardians winning Game 3 means there would be a good chance to extend this series to Game 5. Then again, Messick started Game 1 and the Guardians lost that one.
Further, there were six games played head-to-head between these teams in Chicago this season and the White Sox took four of six.
Again, the Guardians are ranked above the Padres because they are facing a far inferior foe, but it’s a major uphill battle. The most likely outcome here is that the White Sox complete the job at home.
1. New York Yankees
Of the three teams down 2-0, the Yankees had the best record in the regular season, along with the best run differential. They won their two Wild Card Series games over the Red Sox by a combined mark of 18-2. They have Max Fried waiting to start Game 3 here in the ALDS and will be able to go with Carlos Rodón and some combination of Gerrit Cole and Cam Schlittler in Game 5, should they be able to extend the series. That’s a pretty darn good setup.
Also, Fried and Rodón are lefties, and the Rays are significantly worse against left-handed pitching (.751 OPS vs. RHP, .678 vs. LHP). There’s an opening here.
New York’s offense was broken in Tampa Bay and credit must obviously be given to the Rays‘ pitching staff. Going back home should help the Yankees, at least in theory. They had a .755 OPS at home and .688 on the road in the regular season. Also, while his numbers overall are very good, Rays Game 3 starter Nick Martinez had a 4.24 ERA in his last nine starts. The Yankees saw him and beat him on Sept. 22 — though it was only 2-0 Yankees and not exactly a bloodbath.
Of the three teams down 2-0, the Yankees are, in my estimation, easily the most likely to come back and win their series. They are also very likely to lose the series.
