It is clear through five weeks that Ohio State is the top one-loss team in the country, especially after the Buckeyes rolled over Iowa 31-14 at one of the most notoriously difficult places to play in the Big Ten.
As for the rest of the one-loss contenders?
Welcome to the club, Florida.
What would the College Football Playoff selection committee do with the Gators, who last week looked like an unstoppable sure-fire contender only to turn around this week and be embarrassed at Missouri?
Oh, you mean the same way Florida embarrassed Ole Miss 52-28? Those Rebels are still in the top 10. Florida might be, too. The question is: Which teams with statement wins now emerge as imposters later? Ole Miss has a good win against one-loss LSU but was exposed by Florida. And Florida’s Jadan Baugh was bottled up by Mizzou. How good is Mizzou, which lost to a Mississippi State team that just got hammered by Alabama?
Let us sort it out for you here, with this week’s projection of the top 12. Based on historical knowledge and an understanding of the criteria and protocol, here’s a look at what the selection committee might do if the rankings were today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: It’s unlikely the selection committee would move the Longhorns out of the top spot during their bye week, especially as they still have two of the best wins in the country. Texas is No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric after its wins against Ohio State and Tennessee. According to ESPN Analytics, the average top-25 team would have just a 10.8% chance of going 4-0 against the same opponents. Texas is also No. 2 in strength of schedule and No. 5 in total efficiency.
Why they could be lower: This offense is not playing at an elite level. It’s one of the least explosive units in the country (No. 121 in plays of at least 20 yards). Texas is averaging just 5.3 yards per play (110th in the country), and 3.6 yards per carry (No. 118). Texas has also been undisciplined with its penalties, ranking No. 123 in the country with an average of 10 yards per penalty.
Need to know: If Texas continues to find ways to win — even if it’s ugly — its schedule is difficult enough that the selection committee would likely keep the Longhorns as its top team. The undisciplined play, though, and problems on offense that were exposed against the Vols, could come back to haunt them if Texas is in a debate with another team that has the same record and looks better on film and in the analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 14 at LSU. ESPN’s FPI gives the Longhorns a 58% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Standout wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has a lot to do with it, but there’s no shortage of talent around him. Ohio State fits the description of past playoff teams, as it ranks in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiencies. The Buckeyes got their first road win of the season, and it came in convincing fashion against a ranked Iowa team that was leading the nation in scoring defense and fresh off a win at Michigan. Ohio State’s schedule strength to date is what’s giving the Buckeyes the edge over Georgia early, as the Bulldogs entered Week 5 ranked No. 89 and Ohio State was No. 25 — even with the loss to Texas. The committee is unlikely to penalize Ohio State for one bad quarter on the road against what should be its No. 1 team right now.
Why they could be lower: Ohio State and Georgia are close statistically, but the Bulldogs have been a little better, ranking No. 1 in offensive efficiency. Every committee member has different stats they tend to lean more into, so while someone might be impressed with Ohio State’s passing game, another might be more impressed with Georgia’s running game, which has been more effective than the Buckeyes.
Need to know: It’s not impossible for Ohio State to ultimately jump Texas if the Longhorns lose two games and the Buckeyes run the table — which is also not an unrealistic scenario. Texas still faces rival Oklahoma followed by a string of what could be four or five ranked opponents, depending on how far Mississippi State falls. The committee values the head-to-head tiebreaker, but it isn’t the only factor.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 17 at Indiana. The Buckeyes only have three road games left, but they have a bye week to prepare for the Halloween trip to USC. And they’ll need it after traveling to Bloomington, where ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State a narrow 54.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Georgia’s win against unranked Vanderbilt on Saturday isn’t going to wow the committee — especially after the Commodores have now lost back-to-back games and aren’t the same without Diego Pavia. But the Bulldogs are winning with style and have been one of the most complete teams in the country on film. While the committee does place a heavy emphasis on schedule strength — and Georgia has yet to beat a ranked opponent — the Bulldogs have won every game in convincing fashion. Indiana, which won the national title last year, was held in high regard by the committee because of how consistently dominant it was, and Georgia is following that blueprint.
Why they could be lower: Georgia’s stats are partially inflated because of a 63-3 win against Tennessee State, which is a sub-.500 FCS team, and a 70-20 win against a 1-4 Western Kentucky team from Conference USA.
Need to know: Georgia’s true place in the playoff pecking order will be revealed this month, starting Saturday in Tuscaloosa against the Tide. After an Oct. 17 home game against Auburn, Georgia will face Florida on Halloween in a game that will have major CFP and SEC implications.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 10 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI projects Georgia will win all of its remaining games but gives the Bulldogs a narrow 53.6% chance to beat the Tide.
Why they could be here: With the win at Clemson, Miami now has three road victories, something that would help separate them from the other contenders in the committee meeting room, even if those wins weren’t against ranked opponents. The win at 4-1 Wake Forest would probably get more credit in the room than it does from the public, and although Clemson has struggled this season, the Tigers are still above .500, which is something the group considers. The biggest factor in the room, though, would be the wow factor — Miami is playing at a consistently elite level and is oozing talent on both sides of the ball. The Canes have been statistically dominant, and the eye test matches the stats.
Why they could be higher: The Canes have a case to move up, as the committee would describe the gap between Miami and teams above it as “razor thin.” They both beat an FCS team, but Georgia only has one road win (against 2-3 Arkansas). Miami’s scoring defense has been better than Georgia’s, and they hold the top two spots in offensive efficiency, with the Dawgs leading the country.
Need to know: Miami doesn’t face Notre Dame until after the first CFP ranking is revealed on Nov. 3. ESPN’s FPI projects both teams will be undefeated heading into that game.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Notre Dame. ESPN’s FPI gives the Irish a 64.9% chance to win at home. It’s the only game on Miami’s schedule it’s not projected to win.
Why they could be here: The Tide jumped ahead of the Irish after their win against Mississippi State, which was a tougher road win against a ranked opponent than Notre Dame’s win at now 2-2 North Carolina. Heading into Week 5, Alabama’s opponents had won 75% of their games (No. 30 in the country), while Notre Dame’s opponent winning percentage was ranked No. 82 in the country (58.3%). The committee is measuring teams in part by answering this question: Who did you beat? Alabama has been consistently higher in ESPN’s Strength of record metric. Alabama has also been more productive and explosive in its ground game — a noticeable improvement from last year.
Why they could be higher: Statistically, Alabama is closer to Miami than it is to Notre Dame in some major categories such as points per game, rushing yards per game, red zone efficiency, plays over 10 yards and opponents’ winning percentage. The Tide now have a road win that would impress the committee more than the Canes’ best win (at Wake Forest). As good as Notre Dame’s defense has been, Alabama’s defense has been equally efficient if not more in some areas like on third downs.
Need to know: Alabama doesn’t play Texas or Florida this season, so its best chances to impress the committee for seeding purposes will start Saturday against Georgia and then Nov. 7 at LSU.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 10 vs. Georgia. ESPN’s FPI gives the Bulldogs a 53.6% chance to win, but it’s the only game on the schedule that doesn’t favor the Tide.
Why they could be here: The season-opening win against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field continues to increase in value, as the Badgers have reeled off four straight wins, including back-to-back Big Ten games against Penn State and Michigan State. It’s possible that could wind up being an unexpected win against a ranked opponent — and Notre Dame’s schedule could use the lift. Notre Dame has only beaten one Power 4 team (Wisconsin) with a winning record and has no wins against ranked teams.
Why they could be higher: Notre Dame has one of the best quarterbacks in the country in CJ Carr, and its defense is elite. The Irish lead the country in yards per game, holding opponents to just under 200 yards per game, and the run defense has been stifling.
Need to know: Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot in the playoff as long as it finishes in the committee’s top 12, so the Irish are jockeying for position — not a playoff spot. The top four teams get byes, and teams 5-8 earn a first-round home game. The best chance to impress the committee before the first ranking is revealed will be on Oct. 17 at BYU.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 vs. Miami. The Canes won this game last year, 27-24, but ESPN’s FPI projects the Irish have a 64.9% chance to win.
Why they could be here: A win at 1-4 Rutgers isn’t going to boost the Hoosiers in the committee meeting room, but the win against Northwestern looks even better after the Wildcats (3-1) earned a lopsided win against Penn State on Friday. That was Indiana’s only win against a Power 4 team with a winning record. The Hoosiers are one of the nation’s top 10 teams in total efficiency, but all the teams ranked ahead of them here have been slightly better. Indiana’s scoring defense, though, has been measurably better than both BYU and Florida.
Why they could be lower: It all boils down to the Hoosiers’ schedule through five games and how impressed the committee members are with what they see against sub-.500 teams from the FCS and Group of 6. Indiana matches up statistically against every team listed here — and most if not all of them have inflated stats from lopsided wins against weaker competition — but outscoring Howard (2-3) and Western Kentucky (1-4) 93-0 is putting your thumb on the scale.
Need to know: Indiana is still in a position to earn a first-round home game as one of the teams seeded No. 5-8, but the Hoosiers can still move up into first-round bye territory. Saturday’s trip to Nebraska could be a surprise top-25 opponent if the undefeated Huskers keep rolling, and a win against Ohio State on Oct. 17 would change the picture entirely. A November game against USC would also carry weight in the committee meeting room. So while the Hoosiers’ current schedule is one of the worst of any contender, Indiana’s remaining schedule is ranked No. 30, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 17 vs. Ohio State. The Hoosiers will have home-field advantage, but ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 54.5% chance to win. It’s the only game on its schedule Indiana isn’t projected to win.
Why they could be here: The Cougars earned their second road win of the season Saturday, which turned out to be a tricky test against TCU in unfavorable weather. It was a double-edged sword, though, because beating TCU dropped the Horned Frogs to 2-3, so BYU is still looking for a true statement win. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier has been one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the country, throwing just one interception this season. A 63-7 drubbing of winless Utah Tech has helped pad the stats. Still, wins against Arizona and TCU would be respectable in the committee room.
Why they could be lower: The biggest knock on the Cougars right now is the schedule, which ranks in the bottom third of the FBS. Defensively, BYU has been average and ranks noticeably lower in overall efficiency than the other contenders ranked here. The Cougars allowed Colorado State 23 points last month but held the Horned Frogs to 10 points Saturday.
Need to know: The Oct. 17 home game against Notre Dame will have major playoff implications, but the Nov. 7 trip to Utah will determine who the Big 12’s top playoff contender is. Texas Tech still has work to do.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Utah. ESPN’s FPI says this road trip will be more difficult than the home game against the Irish, giving the Utes a 65.2% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Gators were outplayed in every phase against Missouri, and the selection committee members would have a hard time with this, but in the end, several factors would keep Florida in the top 10. The committee would refer to the head-to-head results of Florida beating Ole Miss and the Rebels beating LSU. But what about Mizzou beating Florida head-to-head?! In a shellacking?! Fair, but the committee would point to Mizzou’s loss to Mississippi State, which got hammered by Alabama, and an otherwise weak schedule that includes just one other Power 4 win (2-2 Kansas). The head-to-head tiebreaker wasn’t used between Miami and Notre Dame last year for a stretch of the season because the committee didn’t think those teams were close enough to be comparable and use it. The same concept could be applied here. Mizzou probably wouldn’t be in the same voting pool as the Gators, which means they wouldn’t be compared side by side. The other thing to consider is the bubble teams who are knocking on the door. If any team moved up above Florida, it would probably have to move ahead of Ole Miss and LSU, too, because of the head-to-heads, and none of them have a strong case. Utah was on a bye.
Why they could be lower: Florida got trounced, and there’s no way to sugarcoat it.
Need to know: This is a snapshot of where Florida would be ranked today, not on Selection Day. That would look different because the loss to Mizzou was devastating to Florida’s playoff hopes. The Gators still have to play Texas and Georgia this month — both away from Gainesville. They can’t afford to go 0-2 against them because three-loss Florida is unlikely to reach the CFP. So while the immediate impact of Saturday’s loss was minimal, the long-term effect could be costly.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 17 at Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives Texas a 78.3% chance to win.
Why they could be here: Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss is one of the best in the country and gives Ole Miss the chance to win any game — and the committee members were impressed by that last season. But Ole Miss can’t rely on him to win every game, especially if the defense continues to underwhelm. The committee will still value the Rebels’ home win against LSU, especially with the emotions that were involved with Lane Kiffin’s return. It doesn’t help that Louisville is now a three-loss team after Saturday’s loss to NC State.
Why they could be lower: The defense has been one of the worst in the country. The Rebels have allowed 33 explosive plays, (No. 100 in the country), have missed 26 tackles (No. 110), have had 52 missed tackles (No. 124), and ranks No. 115 in the country with 404.8 yards per game. It’s also one of the worst third-down defenses in the country, allowing conversions 43.9% of the time (No. 114).
Need to know: Former Ole Miss tight end Wesley Walls, a member of the College Football Hall of Fame, is on the selection committee but is “partially recused,” which means he “may remain present and participate in discussions related to the team but shall not be allowed to participate in votes involving the team in question,” according to the CFP.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 24 at Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives the Longhorns an 86.4% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Tigers are still stuck behind Ole Miss because of the head-to-head loss but above Oregon because the committee would view it as a better loss than what the Ducks suffered at Oklahoma State. LSU’s season-opening win against Clemson is still respectable in the committee meeting room, as Clemson is still above .500 after its loss to Miami, but LSU is still looking for a true statement win. Wins against Louisiana Tech and now McNeese aren’t helping the Tigers’ résumé.
Why they could be lower: LSU has struggled with turnovers, specifically in the red zone, where it has been one of the worst teams in the country in terms of surrendering the ball.
Need to know: If LSU can avoid an October loss, it can still overcome the head-to-head loss to Ole Miss and change the playoff picture in November. LSU will host Alabama and Texas and travel to Tennessee, a string of three straight games against ranked opponents. If LSU can beat the teams ranked above it, the Tigers could rise when it matters the most. LSU can’t afford to go 0-2 against Alabama and Texas, though, or it will tumble out of the field.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 vs. Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 52% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Ducks had a bye week but earned a promotion in Week 4 after their win at USC. The impressive second half on the road against a ranked opponent put Oregon back into the playoff conversation, especially after it did it with backup quarterback Dylan Raiola following a scary injury to starting quarterback Dante Moore. It also helps the Ducks that Oklahoma State has reeled off three straight wins, making their Sept. 12 home loss to the Cowboys less of a stain on their résumé in the eyes of the committee.
Why they could be higher: Oregon’s strength of schedule to date is No. 18, according to ESPN Analytics, which is significantly better than most of the contenders ranked above them, including BYU (No. 118), Indiana (No. 102), Notre Dame (No. 98) and Miami (No. 112). The question is whether committee members would value that gap enough to overcome one loss — and whether Oklahoma State is ranked in their top 25. Oregon’s win against Boise State also helps its résumé, as the Broncos would likely be the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 6 team right now.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Oregon would get bumped out of the bracket on Selection Day to make room for Boise State, which is projected to earn a playoff bid as the committee’s highest-ranked team from a Group of 6 conference.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Ohio State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 77.9% chance to win.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Texas (SEC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia
No. 4 Miami (ACC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 18 and 19
No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Notre Dame
No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Indiana
No. 9 Florida at No. 8 BYU (Big 12 champ)
Quarterfinal games
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.
No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Miami
No. 11 LSU/No. 6 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Ole Miss/No. 7 Indiana winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Florida/No. 8 BYU winner vs. No. 1 Texas
