By Week 3, we should be figuring out the NFL landscape, right?
Apparently not.
The Commanders, without Jayden Daniels, beat the Seahawks 33-31. The Browns beat the Panthers 21-18. The Steelers‘ offense exploded in a 30-27 win over the Bengals, one week after we were singing the praises of the Cincinnati defense and lambasting Pittsburgh’s inept offense.
Now? We have plenty to reconsider and plenty to question. But we also have some beliefs that became stronger, too. Let’s get into some overreactions and some reality checks.
Lamar Jackson, Tyler Loop delivered the Ravens their biggest regular-season win in recent memory
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Over the past five years, the Ravens have blown 10 double-digit, second-half leads. It’s the most in the NFL by far. And it sure looked like No. 11 was on the way.
And then suddenly, it wasn’t. Lamar Jackson threw a go-ahead touchdown pass to Matthew Hibner with 1:30 left, the defense held Dallas to a field goal, and then Jackson found Zay Flowers for 27 yards with one second left to set up this:
One week after melting down against the Saints, Jackson simply said: “Not again.” He threw for 186 yards (on just 20 attempts) and two scores. He ran for another 50 yards. When the Ravens needed it most, he delivered, again and again.
The Ravens have had statement wins. They’ve had blowout wins. But this is more important than any of them: a demon-exorcising win. It won’t be soon forgotten.
The Raiders are going to the playoffs
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
There is not a single more surprising 3-0 team in the NFL — and, to be honest, in recent NFL history — than the 2026 Raiders. According to CBS Sports Research, the Raiders are the first team with 150-1 preseason Super Bowl odds or worse to start a season 3-0 since the 2011 Bills.
Kirk Cousins was supposed to be a placeholder for Fernando Mendoza. Brock Bowers didn’t even play the first two games. Las Vegas spent a lot of money this offseason, but there were (and are) still a lot of holes on both sides of the ball.
Klint Kubiak and the Raiders don’t care what they’re “supposed” to be. Here they are, 3-0. Last week I wrote that the Raiders are in good hands under Kubiak, and I feel even more strongly about that now after a 35-27 win over the Saints. Let’s take a quick look at everything that’s going right:
- Cousins threw for 248 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. He’s currently tied for the NFL lead with nine touchdown passes. Crucially, he has also taken just five sacks through three games
- Bowers returned in grand fashion: 10 catches, 116 yards and a touchdown.
- The Raiders lead the NFL with a +5 turnover margin. Rookie cornerback Hezekiah Masses is tied for the NFL lead with three interceptions.
I love it. The NFL is better when the teams are better, and the Raiders are clearly better.
They are not “going to the playoffs” better, though.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The turnover luck is unsustainable; they’ve forced nine through three games, which is on pace for 51 in a season. The record is 49 by the legendary 2000 Ravens — one of the best defenses in NFL history. Cousins’ play has been a major pleasant surprise, but his recent history suggests it’s probably going to tail off, even if only slightly. And I’m someone who has liked Cousins more than most!
The Raiders can only play who is on their schedule, and their wins are now over the Chargers (who look miserable), the Dolphins (who might not win a game) and the Saints (who might be good but might be just OK).
Let me be perfectly clear: It’s OK if the Raiders aren’t going to make the playoffs. They already have as many wins this year as they did last year. Kubiak has done wonderful stuff, the young players look great, the free-agent additions look great, and it’s already one of the most impressive turnarounds of the year.
But it’s worth noting the next stretch of schedule is vs. Chiefs, at Patriots, vs. Bills and vs. Rams. Let’s check back in on the Raiders in a few weeks and see how we feel about them.
Brock Purdy is playing as well as he ever has
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The 49ers are 3-0, but all anyone wanted to talk about in Week 1 was the Rams’ strange flight strategy/the Rams not being a super team/what was wrong with Myles Garrett. Then they played the Dolphins and the Cardinals the last two weeks, and, well, most people didn’t pay attention.
Well, let’s give Brock Purdy his due. This season, he ranks …
- 1st in net yards per attempt (9.5)
- 1st in EPA per dropback (0.62)
- 1st in success rate (65.6%)
- 1st in touchdown rate (10.8%)
- 3rd in completion percentage (72.3%)
Now, Kyle Shanahan always has uber-efficient offenses. There were times when Jimmy Garoppolo was atop similar categories. But Purdy’s film matches his awesome numbers. His 13 completions on throws of 15+ yards downfield are tied for the NFL lead.
He’s also doing this with no Ricky Pearsall, no De’Zhaun Stribling and no DeMarcus Robinson. Mike Evans left Sunday’s game, too. George Kittle is coming off a torn ACL. If no one else wants to notice Purdy, we will. He deserves it.
Drake Maye’s turnover problem will have the Patriots’ playoff chances in jeopardy
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Drake Maye threw two more awful interceptions in the Patriots‘ dismal 35-6 loss to the Jaguars. Here’s where the game changed …
… and here’s where it basically ended.
The Jaguars had just scored a touchdown moments one play from scrimmage that second Maye pick. They then scored another touchdown one play after. In a matter of seconds, the game went from 14-3 to 28-3. Maye, fittingly, spent the waning moments watching from the sideline.
He also had a ridiculous fumble.
Maye has six interceptions this season, two more than anyone else. He only had eight all of last season.
But it’s not just that he’s throwing them, which is bad enough. It’s when and where he’s throwing them, too. In Week 1, the Patriots were only down 13-10 to the Seahawks when he threw the game away, quite literally, in the Seattle end zone. It’s a situation in which you absolutely cannot score zero points. At least get three and go to overtime. Same with the Travis Hunter pick above; at least get three and get to the locker room for halftime.
Maye’s turnovers have totaled a -30.1 expected points added. Basically, the Patriots have lost 30(!) points via Maye turnovers. It’s the worst number through three weeks by any player since Will Levis in 2024. That’s bad company.
Here’s the thing: Last week I said Maye’s turnovers wouldn’t cost the Patriots in a major way. Now? I’m ready to change my tune. Yes, it’s a week-to-week league. Sunday alone, Maye’s three turnovers cost New England an estimated 17-18 points. It appears he is not learning his lesson(s).
Mike Vrabel said his concern level is “very high.” I didn’t make too much about the whole “Maye was a product of the schedule” last year, but the Patriots’ historically difficult opening is rearing its head. Turnovers anywhere are brutal. Near either end zone are absolute killers. Maye isn’t making up for them with big downfield completions, something he did a ton last year.
It’s early, but it’s clear the Patriots don’t have the margin of error they had last year, either.
Trevor Lawrence is a darkhorse MVP candidate
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Want to see what the best version of Maye could be? You only needed to look at the other offense Sunday in Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdown passes and could have ran for another score (he kneeled). The difficulty level on some of his throws is really impressive.
On the drive that helped the Jaguars put the game away — a 15-play, 72-yard march in the third quarter — Lawrence somehow found Bhayshul Tuten for 15 yards with two Patriots defenders draped all over him. On a third and 11 later in the drive, he got hit as he threw and still found Jakobi Meyers for 14 yards. Oh yeah, and to top it off, he did this on third and goal from the 17.
(Parker Washington is awesome, by the way.)
Lawrence is simply playing at an extremely high level. He wasn’t great last week at the Broncos, but as we’ve already seen, every quarterback has off weeks. He is finally unlocking everything we projected he could be when he was coming out of Clemson: big arm that can access the entire field, impressive athleticism and awesome downfield accuracy, especially over the middle of the field.
The Commanders got the most important win of the season so far
The last time the Commanders played the Seahawks, they lost 38-14 and Jayden Daniels dislocated his elbow for the first time. Last week, he dislocated it a second time, an onimous sign ahead of a rematch for Seattle. Washington was 0-2, with a backup quarterback facing the reigning Super Bowl champs (who were getting their own starter back) and the sky seemingly falling.
As it turns out, things are not always what they seem. Marcus Mariota threw for three touchdowns against arguably the NFL’s finest defense, and his first down run on an option play sealed the win. The theme here has to be how the Commanders responded, up and down the roster.
Kain Medrano had never played a defensive snap in the NFL before Leo Chenal got hurt. With Frankie Luvu also out, Washington turned to Medrano, who had a stunning pick six off Sam Darnold.
Terry McLaurin, off to an underwhelming start this year, had six catches for 77 yards and a score. When Seattle went right down the field to make it 33-31, the Washington offense responded with two critical third-down conversions: a Rachaad White 19-yard run on third and 9 and then Marriota’s run to seal it. Even rookie kicker Drew Stevens, who had misses in both of the first two games, made a 57-yarder.
With everything Washington faced over the past week, the team could have crumbled. Instead, it bounced back in stunning fashion. I’m not sure if it’s sustainable or if Washington can be part of the playoff picture, but this win says a lot about the character of Dan Quinn’s team.
The Seahawks losing Kenneth Walker was the worst loss this offseason
Overreaction or reality: Reality
You may see the Seahawks’ 30 points and think their offense looked good.
You would be half-right. The passing offense, in Sam Darnold’s return, largely shredded Washington’s struggling secondary. Darnold threw for 379 yards and four touchdowns (with two interceptions). Seattle had a 59% success rate through the air. Last year, for reference, the Rams led the NFL at 53%.
But Seattl ran the ball 18 times for just 44 yards, and first-round rookie Jadarian Price had a bad fumble early in the game.
Meanwhile, Kenneth Walker currently leads the NFL with 360 rushing yards.
This is an issue, and not one Zach Charbonnet’s eventual return will necessarily solve. Walker’s explosive running ability can’t be replicated by anyone in the Seattle backfield. Walker wanted to be a feature back, something he never was in Seattle until Charbonnet’s injury. There’s a reason Super Bowl MVP had changed teams the following season in over 20 years between Walker did it this offseason. Seattle had lots of extensions this offseason, but not keeping Walker was a big mistake.
The Giants need to add another quarterback
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Giants beat the Titans 12-7, a score that very much tells the story. In truly disgusting weather, the offense was … disgusting. We should have known from the start: Chimere Dike fumbled the opening kickoff return, only for the Giants go backward and punt. This was New York’s first win without scoring a touchdown since 2013.
The bigger headline was before the game, when ESPN and NFL Network reported the Giants could look for outside quarterback help depending on how Jameis Winston played following Jaxson Dart’s season-ending injury. The list is pretty long and has some significant names
The problem? There just aren’t great options. The 49ers have no reason to trade Mac Jones. Some of the other names on the list who would require a trade– Justin Fields, Gardner Minshew, J.J. McCarthy — wouldn’t be an upgrade. Neither would Brandon Allen, who spent this preseason with the Giants.
I ranked Jimmy Garoppolo as the top outside option, but the top option overall would just be to go with Winston, at least for now.
The Chargers’ season is over
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Entering Sunday, teams that had a -4 turnover margin or worse were 16-477-1 since 2000.
That is a .035 win percentage.
Make it 17-477-1. The Bills beat the Chargers 24-16 in a game Buffalo tried to give away over and over and over and over — yes, four “overs” — again. Josh Allen threw a pair of picks and lost a fumble. James Cook lost a fumble on the first play from scimmage, gifting the Chargers a short field they turned into a touchdown. Dalton Kincaid lost a fumble on a big catch.
And still, the Chargers fell to 0-3. Justin Herbert threw another terrible interception, this one late and deep in Buffalo territory, just three plays after an Allen fumble. Cam Dicker missed another field goal. Quentin Johnston had another costly drop.
The Chargers gave up 176 rushing yards. They went one for four in the red zone. They allowed two fourth-down conversions on two Buffalo attempts.
If you can’t win this game — after you couldn’t beat the Raiders or the Cardinals — your season is over. Here’s the upcoming schedule, by the way:
