The necessary steps were taken this offseason to win games like the one No. 12 USC will play Saturday afternoon against No. 20 Oregon. Whether it happens and the Trojans can stiff-arm recent failures against elite competition remains to be seen.
USC has produced explosive offenses and its share of memorable moments throughout coach Lincoln Riley’s tenure, but too often the Trojans have folded when opponents bring comparable talent and greater physicality to the table.
Armed with college football’s No. 1 signing class — which is already making a substantial impact — and schematic changes defensively, USC’s first Big Ten litmus test of the season is here.
Riley’s career record against ranked teams is commendable, but he hasn’t experienced the same level of success at USC as he did at Oklahoma, where he was the annual frontrunner in the Big 12. A win over the Ducks would provide tangible evidence that Riley’s program has learned from big-game mistakes and can finally handle the narrative-setting matchups that matter most.
The Trojans are just 5-14 (.263) overall against AP Top 25 opponents under Riley, including a 2-5 mark over the last two seasons against Big Ten competition.
USC vs. AP Top 25 teams under Lincoln Riley
|
2022 |
2-3 |
11-3, No. 12 |
|
2023 |
1-4 |
8-5, NR |
|
2024 |
1-3 |
7-6, NR |
|
2025 |
1-4 |
9-4, No. 20 |
Oregon is the first of four remaining matchups this season for USC against nationally ranked opponents, joining No. 13 Penn State, No. 7 Ohio State and No. 5 Indiana. And if the Trojans intend on reaching the College Football Playoff for the first time under Riley, they’ll have to at least split those matchups without any hiccups elsewhere.
After losing at No. 13 Notre Dame last season, a week after beating Michigan, Riley said he felt like USC was on the verge of turning the corner in spotlight matchups.
“We’ve put ourselves in position to win a lot of these games,” Riley said. “You’ve gotta go win them. I get it. In your ascent as a program, that’s one of the last steps. Because it’s the hardest thing to do.”
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Chip Patterson
Big Ten showdown with major CFP impact
Oregon answered Dan Lanning’s call to play with more ferocity during an 84-point beatdown of Portland State, but that was a glorified scrimmage for the Ducks coming off the resounding loss at Oklahoma State.
Lanning will find out more about his team this weekend in Los Angeles and see if there are any remnants of the squad that entered last season’s CFP at 11-1 overall with the No. 5 seed after mostly coasting through the Big Ten.
Oregon was ranked No. 7 last season when No. 15 USC came to Autzen Stadium in November for a matchup with CFP billing. The Ducks responded with a 42-27 victory, halting the Trojans’ promising 8-2 start that had Riley’s team on the verge of the 12-team bracket as a possible at-large selection.
The Week 4 showdown this time around is not a CFP elimination game, but it does set the tone for the rest of the way. Oregon falls outside the national rankings with a loss, while USC’s margin for error thins considerably moving forward.
Both teams are flawed — Oregon at the line of scrimmage and USC on defense. Any momentum the Trojans expected to gain from landing Gary Patterson as their new DC this offseason has been subdued early, despite a 4-0 start, thanks to a unit that ranks 13th in total defense in the Big Ten (just behind Oregon).
USC has already given up 47 explosive plays, the second-most nationally among teams currently ranked inside the AP poll. The Trojans have been abysmal on third down and just surrendered 35 points to Rutgers last week as a heavy favorite.
The Scarlet Knights piled up 27 first downs and 460 yards of total offense — more than they managed against UMass during a season-opening loss earlier this month.
“Listen, we’re not going to take road wins for granted in this league,” Riley said after Saturday’s win. “They’re all hard.”
Yeah, but this USC defense routinely makes games infinitely harder than they should be.
Some of the questions surrounding USC’s ineptitude on that side of the football will be answered against the Ducks, but it remains a significant problem that has stung Riley throughout his tenure. When you’re only winning a fourth of your matchups against opponents who ultimately define your season, those issues line up with a coach sitting high on this week’s pressure index.
Riley needs this one against Oregon.
