Two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka will attempt to win a third US Open title when she meets 2026 Australian Open champion Elena Rybakina in Saturday’s final. And since Rybakina just took over Sabalenka’s world No. 1 ranking, Sabalenka probably feels she has something to prove.
Who will win? Our experts break it down.
What can Rybakina do to defeat Sabalenka?
D’Arcy Maine: Rely on the big-serving game that has gotten her here and, to quote Coco Gauff after their semifinal match, continue to “be there every point” and put “a lot of pressure on [her opponent’s] service game and return game.” No matter if she’s leading or trailing, Rybakina just doesn’t let up. She will need to find a way to dictate the points against Sabalenka to disrupt her tried-and-true game plan and throw off her rhythm.
Rybakina has been largely unfazed and unflappable during this run despite some incredibly high stakes and challenging opponents. Even with a questionable status at the start due to an ankle injury, she has stayed the course, fought back multiple times and secured the world No. 1 along the way. She will need to bring that same quiet resolve against Sabalenka and continue to hit the biggest shots at the biggest moments — and try to exploit any mental lapses, no matter how brief, Sabalenka experiences.
Simon Cambers: Keep doing what she’s been doing: winning. I’d argue that Rybakina has not played her best yet, which is ominous for Sabalenka. Effectiveness on first serve is going to be crucial. In six of her 10 defeats to Sabalenka (out of 17 matches), she won less than 60% of points on her usually dominant first serve. In all but one of her seven wins over Sabalenka, Rybakina won more than 70% of points on her serve. At this year’s US Open, she’s been winning 80% of points on first serve. If she’s anywhere near that number, it’s hard to see her losing.
Bill Connelly: Get the return in play. When Rybakina beat Sabalenka in the Australian Open final, she was aced only 5.8% of the time, and she won 80% of the midlength rallies (4-6 shots) on Sabalenka’s serve. That allowed her to break serve three times and eventually win the match. When they met in the Indian Wells final, Rybakina actually won four more points in all (before losing in a third-set tiebreaker) and again controlled the midlength rallies on Sabalenka’s serve and broke three times.
Sabalenka aced her 18% of the time in a straight-sets win in Miami, however, and she created just two break points all match. These two big servers are going to hold most of the time, but when Rybakina prevents Sabalenka from racking up easy points on her serve, she creates the opportunities she needs to break and win.
Aishwarya Kumar: What’s most impressive about Rybakina is her stoicism. The moment she lost the first set Thursday against Gauff, I remembered their Toronto Open semifinal match. Gauff won the first set 7-5, and then Rybakina came out a different player: She fine-tuned her first serves, and her forehand became even more powerful. The same thing happened Thursday. You can just never write her off. If she goes in with the same approach against Sabalenka, she has a great chance of winning. Sabalenka gets easily frustrated, and I can see Rybakina’s stoicism working in her favor in those tough moments against the woman she just stole the World No. 1 from.
What can Sabalenka do to defeat Rybakina?
Maine: Well, according to Jessica Pegula, if Sabalenka plays like she did in their semifinal clash, she’s virtually unstoppable. “She would have beaten anybody probably,” Pegula said pragmatically Thursday.
Sabalenka did so much right in that match, and throughout the fortnight in New York. She’s been unfailingly aggressive, has controlled the points, has excelled under pressure and is more confident than ever (or at least this summer) after her comeback win over Linda Noskova in the quarterfinals and then her statement victory over Pegula.
She admitted she was “super desperate” to get the win Thursday to advance to the final, and she will need to find and maintain a balance of emotions Saturday when everything is heightened. She has said she has learned to tune out the noise better since her attempt at a three-peat in Australia was thwarted last year — and a laser focus on simply the next point in front of her, and not everything else, could be the difference.
Cambers: Do what she has done in New York for the past two years and 20 matches. Sabalenka’s aura slipped a little over the summer, but she loves playing at Arthur Ashe Stadium and she has improved as this tournament has gone on. If she serves well, she will take some stopping. Backhand to backhand, she probably has the edge on Rybakina, but she’ll need to be absolutely on top of her game. She’s also likely to have the crowd on her side, as the defending champion. And in such a tight battle, that will surely help.
Connelly: Honestly, stay relaxed. The tension and overthinking that overtook her game over the summer seems to have vanished as this tournament has unfolded, and in key moments she simply blew both Noskova (in the quarterfinals) and Pegula (in the semis) off the court. Rybakina might be the second-best power player in the game at the moment, but when Sabalenka is swinging freely and playing confident ball, she’s almost impossible to counterpunch. Whether it was returning to New York or losing the No. 1 ranking, she’s finally relaxed again, and she could be too much for even the soon-to-be No. 1 player to handle.
Kumar: When Rybakina was playing against Qinwen Zheng in the quarterfinals and there came a moment that it became evident she’d be the new world No. 1, Sabalenka, who was on one of the practice courts, walked over to watch the moment on TV. She had a curious, impenetrable look on her face. I take that look to mean anger, fire. She’s pissed that she’s no longer No. 1. She now has something to prove. That’s the most dangerous Sabalenka. That, plus she needs to serve well and find her pockets even if Rybakina ups her level.
Who will win?
Maine: Sabalenka has a chance to secure the three-peat at the US Open and avenge her loss in the Australian Open final this year against the woman who also just took the world No. 1 ranking from her. Pegula joked that she must have made Sabalenka mad in their previous encounter to elicit that type of play from her, and Sabalenka has plenty of reasons to feel the same toward Rybakina.
With revenge on her mind, consciously or subconsciously, and a chance to prove she’s still very much the queen of the hard court, Sabalenka will do everything in her power to not let this opportunity slip away. It will be close, but Sabalenka in three sets.
Cambers: This is almost a toss-up, a 50-50 battle between the two hardest hitters in the game and the two best players on hard courts. There’s almost nothing between them statistically, either, so it will come down to nerve and to who can find their best when they need it. Rybakina should take a lot from the way she beat Sabalenka in the final in Melbourne this year, and Sabalenka is under more pressure as she tries to get her first Slam win of the year. This could be a titanic battle, but I’ll say Rybakina takes it, probably in three sets.
Connelly: Sabalenka. Rybakina has had the best year and will soon have the ranking to prove it, but Sabalenka has rediscovered her A-game in New York, and it’s probably still the best in the world. We’ll say it goes to three sets (because 11 of their 17 matches have), but Sabalenka pulls away in the third and wins a third straight title.
Kumar: Sabalenka. This match is going to have everything. They both hit the ball so hard. I am expecting a tight battle. But, I believe Sabalenka now has that chip on her shoulder. This has been an average year in her books. She hasn’t won a single Grand Slam event. She has lost the No. 1 ranking for the first time in three years.
She said to reporters this week that she’d take winning the Open over the No. 1 spot. A win Saturday would give her the elusive three-peat, something that’s been accomplished only by Serena Williams at the US Open (2012-14).
