Why these 5 NFL favorites could easily drop their 2026 season openers

At the start of a new season, hope springs eternal for all 32 teams. With a clean slate, the possibilities are endless, and positivity about what the new campaign may bring is bursting at the seams. For some, however, that warm and fuzzy feeling will quickly turn to doom and gloom in an avalanche of overreactions brought on by a loss in the opener.

The reality is, half the league will come out of Week 1 with a 0-1 record (barring ties). Of course, the odds give us a good sense of which teams they are likely to be on the losing end. But that’s the thing about the NFL; just when you think you have the league figured out, it throws a curveball in the form of an upset. That’s what we’ll be covering here. 

Below, we’ll comb through the Week 1 slate and identify five favorites that could be on upset alert. 

Note: All games are on Sunday, Sept. 13, unless noted otherwise. 

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) at Los Angeles Rams

• When: Thursday, Sept. 10 at 8:35 p.m. ET | Where: Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne, Australia)
• Stream: Netflix
• 49ers ML odds: +172

I am utterly fascinated to see how these two teams fare playing in Australia after taking two wildly different approaches to the flight/time change. As a quick reminder, both of these clubs are in the Pacific Time Zone, so when they travel to Australia, they’re looking at a 17-hour time difference and a flight time of roughly 16 hours.

The 49ers elected to arrive in Australia a week early to acclimate, while the Rams are flying out the day before and will arrive about 24 hours before kickoff. Los Angeles has taken similar approaches to prior international games, and it’s worked out quite well. In fact, the Rams are 3-0 in their international games under Sean McVay and have outscored their opponent 92-17. That said, those three games took place in London, and the travel to Melbourne feels like a different animal entirely.

I sort of like San Francisco’s approach for this Week 1 game a bit better, even though it may impact them more when they return to the United States. 

As for the game itself, the Rams are considered a juggernaut as they enter the season as the favorite to win the Super Bowl. But don’t sleep on the Niners either. They are finally getting close to full strength as they are set to see the return of linebacker Fred Warner, pass rusher Nick Bosa and tight end George Kittle in the opener after each suffered a season-ending injury in 2025. Despite all of those injuries last season, they were still 12-5 and duking it out for the No. 1 seed until Week 18. Since 2022, San Francisco is 31-9 when Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and Kittle all play. 

While this is a bigger hurdle than your standard Week 1 game, Kyle Shanahan has also typically gotten his team up for the opener, winning three-straight Week 1 contests entering 2026.  

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (+1.5)

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Reliant Stadium (Houston)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Texans ML odds: +102

It’s sort of surprising to see Houston as a home dog right out of the gate. Sure, the Bills are headlined by Josh Allen and the Texans saw C.J. Stroud melt in the playoffs last year, but it’s eye-popping nonetheless. That’s especially true because the Texans have had Allen’s number in recent years and boast arguably the top defense in the NFL. 

Allen is 0-4 on the road against the Texans, and his teams have averaged just 17.8 points per game over that stretch, while he’s completed 52.8% of his throws. Houston not only brought back nearly everyone from that top-ranked defense in 2025, but also added players like safety Reed Blankenship and second-round defensive tackle Kayden McDonald. 

Beyond Allen’s poor splits against the Texans, I think the Houston offense is better equipped to attack what remains a questionable piece of the Buffalo defense: stopping the run. Buffalo was horrid against the run last season, allowing 136.2 rushing yards per game (28th in the NFL) and 5.1 yards per rush (30th). This offseason, the Texans traded for former Lions running back David Montgomery and added pieces to the offensive line, which should drastically improve a ground game that ranked 22nd with 108.9 rushing yards per game. 

While Houston made moves this offseason to address that deficiency, Buffalo didn’t really do the same, so I expect them to test that early. If the Texans can generate movement on the ground and the defense continues to give Allen fits, they are live. 

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (+3)

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Panthers ML odds: +138

When you take a glance at the Week 1 slate, you might gloss over this matchup and pencil in a win for Chicago. Despite both being playoff teams a season ago, the Bears are widely considered the more serious contender, while the Panthers benefited from playing in the NFC South and winning the division with an 8-9 record in 2025. While that may ultimately bear out as the season goes along, Carolina has caught plenty of folks sleeping on them in this very setting. 

Over their last 12 games as a home underdog, the Panthers are 10-2 ATS and have won eight of those games outright. They are also 10-1 ATS in the last 11 games as a home underdog started by Young. 

The Panthers also spent the offseason adding to their defense, signing edge rusher Jaelan Phillips and linebacker Devin Lloyd in free agency. Specifically, Phillips had a pressure rate of 18.8% last season, which ranked fourth among pass rushers (min. 300 pass rushes). Could that be a key piece in attacking Caleb Williams, who had the longest average time to throw (3.28 seconds) in the NFL last season? Even despite having that much time, Williams had the highest off-target rate (14.6%) and the lowest completion percentage (58.1%) among qualified starters last season. 

If those issues rear their head, that’s how Carolina pulls off the upset. 

New York Jets (+1.5) at Tennessee Titans

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Nissan Stadium (Nashville)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Jets ML odds: +104

The Jets are much more talented than they were a year ago thanks to a slew of moves on both sides of the ball. Offensively, the biggest change is going from Justin Fields to Geno Smith. While Smith is no spring chicken, he’ll be able to improve New York’s bottom-ranked 140.3 passing yards per game average from 2025. If Smith is merely a point guard and dishes out passes to the Jets’ collection of skill position players—like Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall—they should be able to put points on the board. Meanwhile, they added some solid veterans on defense, namely linebacker Demario Davis and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, which should make them a more formidable unit. 

But this is more of a play against Cam Ward and the Titans than it is New York putting together a herculean effort. Ward was a bit shaky this preseason as the former No. 1 pick completed 13-of-24 for 126 yards. This summer, he was under center for six total drives: one touchdown, a field goal, three punts, and a turnover on downs. It’s not a disastrous showing, but not exactly lights out either. 

If Ward is just serviceable in the opener as he continues to marinate in a new system crafted by head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, New York will have a puncher’s chance. 

Denver Broncos (+2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

• When: Monday, Sept. 14 at 8:15 p.m. ET | Where: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City)
• TV: ABC, ESPN | Stream: (fubo, try for free)
• Broncos ML odds: +120

The Broncos are sort of being slept on as we enter the 2026 season. Despite reaching the AFC Championship last year, they have the third-highest odds to win the AFC West, behind the Chiefs and Chargers. However, I expect their defense to quickly remind folks of its dominance as we wrap up Week 1 on Monday night. 

Of course, all eyes will be on Patrick Mahomes as he mounts his comeback from a season-ending ACL and LCL tear he suffered last season in Week 15. What’ll be interesting to monitor is Mahomes’ mobility coming off the injury because he may need it to negate Denver’s pass rush, particularly with a shaky offensive line in front of him. 

Andy Reid told reporters earlier this week that left tackle Josh Simmons may not be ready to go for the opener as he deals with a back injury. If he ultimately doesn’t play, that’d thrust undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson into covering Mahomes’ blindside. Pair that with Jaylon Moore on the right side, who surrendered three sacks and 23 pressures while playing just 42% of the offensive snaps in spot appearances in 2025, and Mahomes could be in for a long night. 

Over the last two years, the Broncos have totaled a league-best 131 sacks.