Two clubs that have disappointed this year and are likely to miss the postseason meet in the earliest game of Wednesday when Detroit visits Pittsburgh with a 12:35 p.m. ET first pitch in the rubber match of the series. I believe there’s a legitimate chance it’s the final start this season for struggling Pirates ace and reigning NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes if he’s “off” yet again. Bet $5+ and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you bet on baseball at DraftKings:
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Skenes (9-11, 3.88 ERA) was originally slated to start Sunday against Boston, but manager Don Kelly opted to push the 24-year-old right-hander back to Wednesday. Skenes supported that decision and swears he is healthy despite a noticeable drop in velocity this season and having gone 3-5 with a 5.28 ERA in 11 starts since June 9. The Pirates are 3-8 across Skenes’ last 11 starts. The former No. 1 overall pick has been one of the worst starting pitching bets all season as you would be down $983 if you bet Pittsburgh to win all of his outings.
Everything apparently changed around midseason when Skenes changed his delivery – SI’s Tom Verducci, one of the most respected MLB guys in the country, did a pretty interesting deep dive on Skenes last week, so I want to make sure I credit him here. I’m aware of pitching mechanics, but I’m certainly no expert on these changes.
June 9 was the day Skenes adjusted his stride to be less crossfire than ever before. Per Verducci, there is a difference since that change in “Skenes’ feet position (more direct to the plate) and hand position (less offset) … and that by not stepping across his body as much, Skenes is releasing the baseball with 8-9″ less offset (from the center line of the plate).”
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Long story short, right-handed hitters are now killing Skenes. Through June 8, they were hitting .193 and slugging .307. Since that change, those numbers are .301 and .470. Skenes went just 65 pitches last week in a loss in Miami and averaged career-low 95.7 mph on his fastball. He induced just four misses on 34 swings for a 12% whiff rate, the lowest single-game mark of his big-league career. His average overall fastball velocity this season is 96.8 mph, down from 98.1 mph last season and 98.8 mph in 2024 when winning NL Rookie of the Year.
“If I were the manager, I’d probably do it too,” Skenes said of being pushed back. “[Kelly] walked me through everything, and it made sense. It certainly can’t hurt in terms of recovery.”
Needless to say, Skenes is a massive part of the Pirates’ future – at least until the Dodgers trade for him (sigh) when he gets too expensive. So if his velo is down yet again Wednesday, I could absolutely see the Bucs shutting him down. They aren’t getting a playoff spot.
In three career starts vs. Detroit, Skenes is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 18.0 innings. The model has Skenes at 5.5 innings (I’m skeptical), 6.6 strikeouts, 4.5 hits allowed and 1.7 earned runs. I’m excited to see him face Tigers superstar rookie Kevin McGonigle for the first time in their MLB careers with McGonigle the runaway -525 favorite for AL Rookie of the Year. The 21-year-old infielder looks like a future AL MVP.
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McGonigle was a very touted prospect, and so was Wednesday starting pitcher Jackson Jobe (1-1, 6.23 ERA). But the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft and one-time No. 1 overall pitching prospect in the sport (like Skenes was) hasn’t lived up to the promise yet. Jobe pitched in just two games in 2024 and 10 last year due to Tommy John surgery. He was reinstated from the injured list a less than two weeks ago.
Jobe’s first start was great as he hit 100.1 mph on the gun while pitching five shutout innings in a win at San Francisco. But Jobe was rocked in start No. 2 last Friday by the White Sox, allowing six runs and nine hits in 3 2/3 innings. This marks his first career start vs. Pittsburgh, and the model has him at 5.0 innings, 4.6 strikeouts, 4.9 hits allowed and 2.6 earned runs.
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Day games after a night game generally are lower-scoring with guys a bit tired, and weather shouldn’t much factor at PNC Park. Skenes has been decent his past two outings and a bit better at home overall this year, and I’m not sure which Jobe we get. With both teams off Thursday, the bullpens can be used plenty if need be. The model has the Pirates winning 4.6-4.1. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
