The Thursday MLB schedule features just five games, but there are always enough matchups that you can find a best bet to hit a home run today. The day’s last game starts at 6:40 p.m. ET, so you’ll have to get your wagers in early. SportsLine expert Adam Thompson has his home run props picks for Thursday’s games, and you need to see who he is backing. A few teams that are in the running for wild card spots are featured in the evening matchups, with the Diamondbacks visiting the Cardinals and the Tigers hosting the Royals, and every game has players to target on Thursday home run props.
Thompson was one of SportsLine’s earliest experts from 2016-19 and rejoined the company in 2026 following a stint as the primary betting analyst for the Gambling.com Group. An analytics-driven exploiter of matchups, Thompson specializes in NFL, MLB and NBA. He also has delivered consistent winners in college basketball, horse racing and golf. Over the past two seasons, he’s up over 70 units in MLB and more than 60 units in the NBA at sports betting apps.
Here are Thompson’s home run picks for Thursday, July 23.
Best home run picks for Thursday, July 23
Nolan Arenado, Diamondbacks (+780)
Cardinals RHP Michael McGreevy is dealing in June, with a 1.93 in three starts. He’s given up only four runs — but two home runs. Allowing homers has been the issue for McGreevy recently. Over the last seven games, he’s allowed nearly as many dingers (6) as walks (7).
The hottest Diamondbacks bat in the lineup right now belongs to Arenado. Over the last two weeks, the veteran third baseman has four home runs with a .316 average and a solid 1.146 OPS. Outfielder Tim Tawa is the only other Arizona regular with more than two HRs in that span.
Arenado, who had a couple of 30-homer seasons with the Cardinals not so long ago, can tip his cap to an appreciative St. Louis crowd, then keep the hot run going.
Spencer Torkelson, Tigers (+505)
Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson isn’t hitting a lot of balls lately. But when he does, there’s a good chance it’s left the yard. Over the last week, Torkelson has just five hits, hitting at a .192 clip. Three of those hits were home runs. The last two weeks, half of his base hits (five of 10) have been of the four-bag variety.
Comerica Park in Detroit greatly favors right-handed power hitters over those on the left side. Royals starter Randy Dobnak has allowed three runs in his 14 innings this season, but two home runs. The Royals bullpen has the third-highest home run rate since the start of July.
