SOUTHPORT, England — Sam Burns moved to the top of the leaderboard on Moving Day at the 154th Open Championship at Royal Birkdale on Saturday.
Burns, who is seeking his first major championship, will carry a two-stroke lead over New Zealand’s Ryan Fox and South Korea’s Si Woo Kim.
Each of the past 11 Open Championship winners were within at least four strokes heading into the final round. And each of the past 25 golfers who lifted a Claret Jug were in the top 10 heading into Sunday.
After a near-miss in last month’s U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club on Long Island, Burns is looking to close the deal this time.
“Ultimately, it comes down to I can’t control anything anyone else does,” Burns said after finishing 5-under 65 on Saturday. “Someone’s going to go out and play a great round of golf tomorrow, maybe a few people. It’s pretty much a given. That happens every single week.
“So, I’m going to have to do the same. I’m going to have to go out and execute. Ultimately, whatever happens, I know that I can accept the outcome, and life’s going to move on.”
Here’s a look at the top contenders to win the Claret Jug on Sunday:
Sam Burns (10 under)
Why he’ll win: Burns is one of the top golfers in the world who hasn’t yet won a major. After struggling mightily in the big four early in his career, Burns has finished in the top 10 in four of the past nine.
This week, Burns has been a ball-striking machine. He hit 17 of 18 greens in regulation Saturday and is gaining more than six strokes on approach through 54 holes.
Plus, Burns seems to be playing with house money. Because of the pending birth of his daughter, Belle, he wasn’t sure he would even compete in The Open this week. His second child was born July 3, and his wife, Caroline, helped persuade him to fly across the pond for the final major of the season.
After finishing the first round with three straight bogeys, a text exchange with his wife was exactly what Burns needed.
He came out and fired an 8-under 62 on Friday to match the lowest round in a major championship.
“Yeah, I really think she was the one that kind of gave me that encouragement that I needed and kind of a kick in the butt,” Burns said.
Why he won’t win: Burns has been agonizingly close to winning a major a couple of times the past two years, but he hasn’t been able to close.
In last month’s U.S. Open, he started the final round seven strokes behind leader Wyndham Clark and nearly chased him down. A birdie putt on the 18th hole missed the hole by a half-inch, causing Burns to fall to his knees.
Burns was the 54-hole leader going into the final round at the 2024 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club but tied for seventh in the driving rain after he was denied water relief on the 15th hole.
Ryan Fox (8 under)
Why he’ll win: Fox, from New Zealand, got himself back into contention Saturday by becoming the eighth golfer — and the third this week — to post a 62 in a major championship round, the lowest in history.
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Ryan Fox on tying major single-round record: ‘Didn’t think it would be 62’
Playing in benign conditions with little to no wind Saturday morning, Fox hit 15 of 18 greens and needed only 25 putts. He made 140 feet of putts while carding nine birdies and one bogey.
Fox is a 19-time winner around the world and he has a track record of closing. Last year, he held off Harry Higgs and Mackenzie Hughes in a playoff to win the OneFlight Myrtle Beach Classic. A month later, he outlasted Burns to win again in a playoff in the RBC Canadian Open.
On Saturday, Fox said he’ll stay aggressive Sunday while trying to win his first major.
“Just pick shots and try to hit them,” Fox said. “Nothing changes game plan wise. I went in there with a pretty aggressive strategy the whole day and did the same thing yesterday and played pretty decently. So I’ll try to do the same thing tomorrow and see what happens.”
Why he won’t: He turned in a 62 in benign conditions Saturday morning, when the wind wasn’t blowing and there were more scoring chances. Will he be as good when the winds are shifting and blowing in the afternoon?
Si Woo Kim (8 under)
Why he’ll win: While much of the week’s attention has focused on Bryson DeChambeau and the trio of 62s, Kim has quietly snuck up the leaderboard with consecutive 67s.
Kim, who is No. 21 in the Official World Golf Ranking, hasn’t won on the PGA Tour in nearly three years. But he is playing some of the best golf of his career with 11 top-25s in 19 starts. He was runner-up in both the Farmers Insurance Open and CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
Kim is one of the best irons players on tour; he ranks third in strokes gained: approach (.732). He’s gaining about 4½ strokes in that statistic this week.
Why he won’t win: Will Kim’s putting hold up under pressure? He ranked 99th on tour in strokes gained: putting (-.094) coming into the week, but his putter has been red-hot at Royal Birkdale. He gained 3.70 strokes on the greens in the first three rounds.
Kim hadn’t been a great links player before this week. He had one top-25 finish in seven starts in The Open and had more missed cuts (four) than made ones (three).
Why he’ll win: There are few people who probably expect Gerard to lift a Claret Jug on Sunday, so maybe he can continue flying under the radar.
In only his second full season on the PGA Tour, Gerard has shown plenty of signs of breaking through. He won the 2025 Barracuda Championship and has three runner-up finishes this season. He lost in a playoff to J.T. Poston in The Memorial on June 4.
Gerard doesn’t have a ton of links experience, but Royal Birkdale has suited him well so far.
“A lot of people have told me that before I even came over here last year,” Gerard said. “I just feel comfortable flighting shots, hitting different windows, kind of moving the ball both ways when you need to, especially into greens.
“I’ve felt pretty good about the way that we handled business so far, but yeah, it’s still a lot of golf left to play, and it’s going to be not easy tomorrow.”
Why he won’t win: History doesn’t favor him winning. There have been only 10 golfers who won The Open in their first start, including Ben Curtis in 2003 and Collin Morikawa in 2021.
Why he’ll win: Herbert is regarded as one of the better putters in the game, and that was evident when he joined Burns with an 8-under 62 on Friday. He narrowly missed a putt on the 18th that would have given him the sole record of 61.
Herbert came back to earth with a 1-over 71 on Saturday. But after making birdies on Nos. 15 and 16, he hit one of the best shots of the tournament on the par-5 17th. After taking a one-shot penalty for an unplayable lie, he ripped his third, a blind shot over a dune, to 20½ feet and two-putted for par.
He came in on a bit of a heater, having been the wire-to-wire winner of the LIV Golf tournament in Potomac Falls, Virginia, on May 10.
Why he won’t win: Herbert doesn’t have a top-10 finish in a major. He hadn’t made the cut in one since tying for 43rd in the 2024 PGA Championship.
Why he’ll win: Even at 26, Åberg is arguably one of the most talented golfers in the top 10 heading into the final round, even if he has only two PGA Tour victories to show for it. Other golfers are envious of his effortless swing and his laid-back demeanor, which is as calm as the winds have been off the Irish Sea this week.
There isn’t anything Åberg hasn’t done well this week. He is gaining strokes off the tee (2.31), on approach (1.36), around the green (2.94) and putting (1.34).
Why he won’t win: Can he close? At the Players Championship in March, Åberg took a three-shot lead into the final round at TPC Sawgrass. He played well on the front Sunday, but then he hit balls into the water on Nos. 11 and 12, resulting in a bogey and double bogey, respectively, knocking him out of contention. He finished the round at 4-over 76 and tied for fifth at 9 under.
Though his short game has been very good this week, it is typically his biggest weakness. Will it continue to hold up?
Bryson DeChambeau (6 under)
Why he’ll win: DeChambeau has an England-size chip on his shoulder after the R&A hit him with a two-stroke penalty for improving his swing path before hitting his second shot on the fifth hole in Friday’s second round.
On Saturday, Rory McIlroy didn’t mince his words when talking about DeChambeau.
Despite all of the controversy and distractions, DeChambeau finished with a 1-under 69 on Saturday.
He’d probably like nothing more than to stick it to the R&A suits, McIlroy and the traditional golf world that haven’t embraced his efforts to grow the game through YouTube and LIV Golf.
Why he won’t: There are too many distractions, his aggressive game plan backfires, and he loses to the winner by one.
Why he’ll win: It would be the ultimate underdog story and one of the most remarkable victories in major championship history.
Suber had never even been to Europe until he arrived in England on Saturday. He had never played on a links course until his first practice round at Royal Birkdale. Yet, he was the first-round leader after carding a 65 and has done enough to stay within striking distance.
Why he won’t win: For the reasons stated above.
Why he’ll win: Fleetwood, who grew up in Southport, will have all of England pulling for him Sunday. An English golfer hasn’t won The Open since Nick Faldo got his third Claret Jug in 1992. An English golfer hasn’t won on home soil since Tony Jacklin in 1969.
Fleetwood is England’s only chance to end the long drought after Aaron Rai, Justin Rose and Matt Fitzpatrick missed the cut, and Daniel Brown (4 under), Matt Wallace (2 under), Alex Fitzpatrick (1 under) and Tyrrell Hatton (1 over) faded Saturday.
Odds are that Fleetwood won’t win, but he’ll have nothing to lose Sunday.
“There’s no pressure on me at all, really, except for my own expectations, and, of course, it’s a really beautiful thing that the town is so hopeful for me and they want me to do well,” Fleetwood said. “I can’t ask for any more from thousands and thousands of people out there. No, I don’t feel pressure. I felt nerves this week and excitement and adrenaline, but that’s my own expectations.”
Why he won’t win: He’s too far back and there are too many great golfers in front of him.
