No. 1 seed Jannik Sinner will battle No. 2 Alexander Zverev on Sunday, with the Wimbledon title on the line. But despite the close rankings, Sinner has the edge on paper: He’s the defending champion and has dominated Zverev in their matches over the past few years.
But Zverev is coming off his first major title at the French Open only a month ago — will that momentum carry him through to another Grand Slam trophy? Our experts break it down.
What can Sinner do to defeat Zverev?
D’Arcy Maine: As Sinner has defeated Zverev in their past nine meetings — a stretch that dates nearly three years — he doesn’t have to look far for clues on what to do. And, as evidenced in his clinical takedown of Novak Djokovic in the semifinals, Sinner truly does everything well. He won 88% of his points on first serve, he saved (with an ace) the only break point he faced, he was dominant from the baseline, and he simply never allowed Djokovic to have any opportunities to get back into the match.
Sinner was calm and composed throughout, without the slightest sign of any nerves. If he can play anywhere close to that level, against a player with less experience on grass and on the sport’s biggest stage, Sinner should have no problems winning his second consecutive title at the All England Club.
Bill Connelly: It appears he just needs to remember that he’s playing Zverev. He’s won nine straight matches and 14 straight sets in the series. He hasn’t even faced a break point in their past two meetings, and they were on clay!
That’s probably where the biggest advantage lies: Zverev hasn’t been able to crack his serve at all, and his serve was pretty incredible against Djokovic in the semis: 16 aces in three sets with zero double faults, 88% of first-serve points won and 61% of second-serve points. If he continues to hit his spots like that, he’ll force Zverev to win three tiebreakers to have a chance.
Nate Saunders: If Sinner even gets close to replicating the performance level he showed against Djokovic, he’s on a good way to retaining his title. Whether or not it was a fully fit Djokovic is unknown, but it was still Djokovic — and Sinner dismantled him. Sinner controls the tempo of a match like no one else and if he gets Zverev frustrated and scrambling around the court, it’s easy to imagine the match quickly going his way.
If Sinner even gets close to replicating the performance level he showed against Novak Djokovic, he’s on a good way to retaining his title. Whether or not it was a fully fit Djokovic is unknown, but it was still Djokovic – and Sinner dismantled him. Sinner controls the tempo of a match like no-one else and if he gets Zverev frustrated and scrambling around the court, it’s easy to imagine the game quickly going his way.
Simon Cambers: Keep doing what he’s been doing, not just here at Wimbledon but in general against Zverev. Sinner’s won their last nine meetings, the last six of them in straight sets. If he plays anywhere near as well as he did against Djokovic, he will surely win. If he needs to, he can get to the net when Zverev stands deep, and the drop shot will also be useful.
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Sinner stymies Djokovic in straight sets to reach Wimbledon final
What can Zverev do to defeat Sinner?
Maine: This will be a tough challenge for Zverev, and he will need to be nearly perfect to get the win Sunday. But this is the first time the two will play since Zverev finally became a major champion and that confidence and momentum should help — and might alleviate some of the emotional toll or anxiety, especially at the start.
Not to mention having finally gotten past the “best to never win a Slam” moniker might help him play more freely and with nothing to lose. Zverev has become more aggressive on the court, and especially during this breakthrough run on grass, and he has an impressive first serve that could be a powerful factor. He will just need to put everything together at once and hope Sinner is not at his best to have a chance.
Connelly: Keep up the superhuman serving — first and second. In his past two wins in this tournament, Zverev has a) landed his first serve over 70% of the time and b) won over 70% of his second-serve points.
He can’t afford almost any breaks with the way Sinner is serving (and with the way he’s failed to solve Sinner’s serve in recent years), so he’ll have to match Sinner, hold for hold. And he might be capable of it.
Saunders: This is a match between two men with booming serves — Zverev needs his to be flawless from the beginning of the contest. If he can show the aggression he’s played with through the tournament so far, limiting the exchanges between them and breaking up Sinner’s rhythm, that will be a good start.
The key will be to stop Sinner controlling things from the baseline. Zverev has looked confident throughout the tournament and his commanding performance against Taylor Fritz should be the template for this final — although, it’s hard to have any template for Sinner when he’s at his best.
Cambers: If Zverev wants to win he’s going to have to stand closer in on the Sinner serve than he usually does. If he yields too much ground, Sinner will have too many options. He also needs to serve as well as he’s been doing throughout the tournament, if not better. And he needs to continue to be aggressive, especially on his forehand.
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Zverev reaches first Wimbledon final after win in straight sets
Who will win?
Maine: Sinner and I don’t think it will be close. Just as he did in their previous Slam final meeting at the Australian Open last year, Sinner will win this one in straight sets for his fifth major title.
Connelly: Sinner in four sets. I can’t really get past “14 straight sets in the series.” Zverev’s form is strong enough that we’ll say he wins a second- or third-set tiebreaker, but Sinner still defends his crown.
Saunders: Has to be Sinner — and I was going to say it being in straight sets as it was in their Australian Open final. But Zverev might surprise us and step up his game for the big occasion, especially now that he’s shed that label of a top player without a major title. That said, there’s really been little over this fortnight to suggest Sinner is easily beatable, other than perhaps some slightly sluggish moments in the opening week. Charitably, I’ll say Zverev will get a set, but only because he’s lived up to his No. 2-seed billing so far this tournament. But emphasis there is on the word “charitably.”
